Switch 2 Speculation

At this point guys, I am curious, what do you think just the likelihood of a more powerful Switch coming out anytime in 2022 or sooner (i.e.by the end of this year or next March) powered by a new SoC (vs Tegra X1/Markio that has both DLSS (using Tensor cores), a GPU with more than 256 cuda cores--at least 384 if not 512...(I think that would mean 6 to 8 SMs ?). Also, more than 4GB RAM (6-8 GB) as well as better/newer/faster CPU (newer and/or more and/or higher clocked ARM cores),
Finally, will this next version of Nintendo Switch have a memory bus/LPDDR* combination resulting in bandwidth of between 51-102 GB/sec, with -50 GB/s bandwidth as the basement expectation.

priced at anywhere between $299 and $399 USD.


50/50 chance?

10%, 25%, 70% ?

I feel like there is a 70% chance that we will see an improved Switch model released later this year. However, I do not believe the bump in performance will be significant, that wont happen until the true Switch successor is released. Best case scenario would be a Tegra X2 chip shrunk down and worst case scenario would be sticking with the Mariko chip but increasing the clock speeds. The X2 has twice the memory bandwidth and has a higher ceiling for clock speeds compared to the X1. It will be more in line with the DSi and the New 3DS level of improvements, im not expecting a jump like Sony did with the PS4 Pro. Bigger better screen and a modest boost to performance is all I expect.
 
From wikipedia

NVIDIA_Orin_press_-_die_-_annotated.jpg
 
So we can expect something based on the Jetson AGX Orin Developer Kit (15W) unless Nintendo finally went fully custom.

The leaks suggest a variation of the Orin chip, codename Dane with a model T239 rather than the T234 Orin chip that is the standard offering. A known Nvidia leaker released that info that year, and the recent Nvidia leaks confirm he was correct. The assumption last year was that it was going to be for a Switch Pro, but that never made sense to me because of timing and just how much of a performance jump it is over the Tegra X1 powering the current Switch and because the Orin wasn't even going to start shipping until 2022. This info does seem to make it pretty clear that DLSS is a very important feature for the new hardware. DLSS is the only way Nintendo can offer a portable device that still offers 4K capabilities when docked. The question is just how cut down would the variation of this Orin chip need to be in order to the fit the Switch platform? Twelve CPU cores would certainly be overkill, so it seems fair to assume that it gets cut down to 8. A 256 bit memory bus seems like a stretch as well, 128bit seems far more likely. The GPU core count could be cut in half and still be adequate for Switch 2.
 
If Nintendo wants third party support for next gen games, 8 cores is too little. 12 cores makes perfect sense there.
 
NVN2 ? Could it be a sign that their going to break backwards compatibility ?

The original GX API was only compatible with the Flipper/Hollywood GPU. It's spiritual successor, GX2 for the Latte GPU broke compatibility with GX out of absolute necessity. Therefore, it may logically follow that NVN2 is going to break compatibility with the original NVN API ...
 
The leaks suggest a variation of the Orin chip, codename Dane with a model T239 rather than the T234 Orin chip that is the standard offering. A known Nvidia leaker released that info that year, and the recent Nvidia leaks confirm he was correct. The assumption last year was that it was going to be for a Switch Pro, but that never made sense to me because of timing and just how much of a performance jump it is over the Tegra X1 powering the current Switch and because the Orin wasn't even going to start shipping until 2022. This info does seem to make it pretty clear that DLSS is a very important feature for the new hardware. DLSS is the only way Nintendo can offer a portable device that still offers 4K capabilities when docked. The question is just how cut down would the variation of this Orin chip need to be in order to the fit the Switch platform? Twelve CPU cores would certainly be overkill, so it seems fair to assume that it gets cut down to 8. A 256 bit memory bus seems like a stretch as well, 128bit seems far more likely. The GPU core count could be cut in half and still be adequate for Switch 2.

They don't need to do much. The first revision Switch used 11 Watt on average. Orin already falls in that category.

They could render UI in full 4K and use DLSS on the graphics side of things when docked. They will need the bandwidth for DLSS capabilities and 4K in my mind.

The other changes would require, gasps, custom silicon. Would Nintendo really go for that when Orin already ticks all the boxes?
 
They could use DLSS Ultra Performance at 4K to get an enormous boost in performance. To combat the visual differences, maybe it's possible to optimize DLSS for the game specifically, for example running the post processing effects at 1080p or so. I think the deep integration of DLSS into Switch 2 games and the Switch 2 itself could lead to some optimizations not possible on PC. And yeah with that, they could leave the Series S in the dust and the presentation would be more similar to PS5 with some compromises the majority likely won't notice.

In handheld mode, using DLSS Balanced at 720p would make sense to save battery. Will certainly look at lot better than FSR on the Steam Deck.
 
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They don't need to do much. The first revision Switch used 11 Watt on average. Orin already falls in that category.

They could render UI in full 4K and use DLSS on the graphics side of things when docked. They will need the bandwidth for DLSS capabilities and 4K in my mind.

The other changes would require, gasps, custom silicon. Would Nintendo really go for that when Orin already ticks all the boxes?

I believe this Orin Chip would be too big. There is no question the chip doesn't need to be as small as the Tegra X1 and it can still work in the Switch form factor, but the standard Orin chip looks to dwarf the Steam Deck APU in size. 15w might be acceptable for playing docked, but not portable. They will need to get power draw down to around 5w for the SOC. Maybe a few extra watts will be acceptable if Nintendo fits the Switch 2 with a higher capacity battery. Im certainly leaning towards a cut down iteration of the standard Orin chip. There is nothing saying that this variation is strictly for Switch 2, it could still be targeted at the same market Orin targets but as a less expensive option.
 
I have a feeling with the supply chain woes and the switches continued success that we wont see a new switch until 2024 at the earliest.
 
I believe this Orin Chip would be too big. There is no question the chip doesn't need to be as small as the Tegra X1 and it can still work in the Switch form factor, but the standard Orin chip looks to dwarf the Steam Deck APU in size. 15w might be acceptable for playing docked, but not portable. They will need to get power draw down to around 5w for the SOC. Maybe a few extra watts will be acceptable if Nintendo fits the Switch 2 with a higher capacity battery. Im certainly leaning towards a cut down iteration of the standard Orin chip. There is nothing saying that this variation is strictly for Switch 2, it could still be targeted at the same market Orin targets but as a less expensive option.

Good point, perhaps it's the T239 (GA10F) with only 8-core CPU and 1536 core GPU.
 
Jetson Orin NX Module Technical Specifications

AI Performance 100 TOPS (INT8)
GPU NVIDIA Ampere architecture
with 1024 NVIDIA® CUDA® cores and 32 Tensor Cores
Max GPU Freq 1 GHz
CPU 8-core Arm® Cortex®-A78AE v8.2 64-bit CPU
2MB L2 + 4MB L3
CPU Max Freq 2 GHz
DL Accelerator 2x NVDLA v2.0
Vision Accelerator PVA v2.0
Memory 12GB 128-bit LPDDR5
102.4 GB/s
Storage Supports external NVMe
CSI Camera Up to 4 cameras (8 via virtual channels*)
8 lanes MIPI CSI-2
D-PHY 1.2 (20 Gbps)
Video Encode 1x 4K60 | 2x 4K30 | 6x 1080p60 | 14x 1080p30 (H.265)
Video Decode 1x 8K30 | 2x 4K60 | 6x 4K30 | 12x 1080p60 | 24x 1080p30 (H.265)
UPHY 3 x1 + 1 x4 PCIe Gen 4
3x USB 3.2 Gen2
Networking 1x GbE
Display 1x 8K60 multi-mode DP 1.4a (+MST)/eDP 1.4a/HDMI 2.1
Other I/O 3x USB 2.0
3x UART | 2x SPI | 4x I2C | 1x CAN | DMIC | DSPK | 2x I2S | 15x GPIOs
Power 10W | 15W | 25W
Mechanical 69.6mm x 45mm
260-pin SO-DIMM connector
*Virtual Channel related camera information for Jetson Orin NX is not final and subject to change.
 
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