Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Mariner said:
UK population is circa 6 times that of Ohio. Number of tests proportional to population is similar. Yes, we really are still doing badly with that in the UK.
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aside from South Korea, and China, I think Portugal took the best decision by declaring the state of alarm when they saw what was happening in Spain and they only had 300 confirmed cases. Now they are doing great.
 
Cyan said:
aside from South Korea, and China, I think Portugal took the best decision by declaring the state of alarm when they saw what was happening in Spain and they only had 300 confirmed cases. Now they are doing great.
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Have they went immediately to lockdown?
 
Nesh said:
Have they went immediately to lockdown?
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afaik, they did. They closed the schools, and so on. Now it's paying off. Dunno the full details, maybe @ToTTenTranz knows better. This spreads like the plague but they kept the numbers down, they "only" have 6000 cases there iirc -my numbers could be incorrect, but yeah, they did a great job-.
 
Cyan said:
afaik, they did. They closed the schools, and so on. Now it's paying off. Dunno the full details, maybe @ToTTenTranz knows better. This spreads like the plague but they kept the numbers down, they "only" have 6000 cases there iirc -my numbers could be incorrect, but yeah, they did a great job-.
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Hmmm, looking at the data, they are at 16,934 confirmed cases of infection and 535 deaths now. Looking at just deaths that compares favorably with WA State (491 deaths). Populations are relatively similar. 7.41 million for WA and ~10.2 million for Portugal, so deaths as a percentage of population is a bit higher in WA. So yeah, they are doing well, although their deaths per day is currently higher than WA state. Not sure where they are on the infection curve.

Regards,
SB
 
Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 7280 (up from 6975 ), Hospitalized: 2156 (up from 2033 ), and Deaths: 324 (up from 274 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 127 (up from 94 ), 15 (up from 6 )
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1239 (Up from 1197 ).

Percentage increase: 4.37%, 6.05%, 18.25%
Raw increase: 305, 123, 50

Ohio has the exact same numbers of total tests and tests per 1M population as they did the other day, so the number of tests performed was not updated and seems elusive to find -- Ohio has 63243 total tests and 5432 tests per 1M population, data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/.
 
Ohio says the curve is flattening, but even with the extremely limited testing it's still in the linear growth portion where the confirmed cases will double every 14-16 days. :cry:

Here's rough numbers on how many days it takes to double with each percentage increase.

40% increase, doubles in 2 days
25% increase, doubles in 3 days
20% increase, doubles in 4 days
15% increase, doubles in 5 days
12% increase, doubles in 6 days
10% increase, doubles in 7 days
8% increase, doubles in 9 days
7% increase, doubles in 10 days
6% increase, doubles in 12 days
5% increase, doubles in 14 days
4% increase, doubles in 18 days
3% increase, doubles in 23 days
2% increase, doubles in 35 days
1% increase, doubles in 69 days
 
also claimed the life of Rick May, the voice of Peppy Hare and Andross in Star Fox 64.

rick-may-1024x766.jpg


 
BRiT said:
Ohio says the curve is flattening, but even with the extremely limited testing it's still in the linear growth portion where the confirmed cases will double every 14-16 days. :cry:

Here's rough numbers on how many days it takes to double with each percentage increase.

40% increase, doubles in 2 days
25% increase, doubles in 3 days
20% increase, doubles in 4 days
15% increase, doubles in 5 days
12% increase, doubles in 6 days
10% increase, doubles in 7 days
8% increase, doubles in 9 days
7% increase, doubles in 10 days
6% increase, doubles in 12 days
5% increase, doubles in 14 days
4% increase, doubles in 18 days
3% increase, doubles in 23 days
2% increase, doubles in 35 days
1% increase, doubles in 69 days
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what kind of tests are being used? There are some quick test available, afaik. This puzzles me because @digitalwanderer mentioned he had to wait a few days for the tests, but I've seen people performing quick tests on the go, inside their car even, and they know the result like 3-6 hours afterwards.
 
ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures released for the two weeks up to 3rd April show over 7,000 excess deaths in comparison to the average for those weeks over the past 5 years. Obviously, this is mostly due to Covid-19, whether deaths from the disease itself or to others caused by excessive pressure on the health service. Worryingly, the official Covid-19 count for deaths (in hospital only) was only around 3,600 on 3rd April. If the actual number of deaths is still around twice that of the hospital figures, we've already got a higher number of deaths than Italy, despite the fact we're apparently a couple of weeks before the peak.

I should mention that the ONS figures were almost 1,000 per week lower than the 5 year average for the first 10 or so weeks of the year, so the numbers may be even worse than that.
 
Cyan said:
what kind of tests are being used? There are some quick test available, afaik. This puzzles me because @digitalwanderer mentioned he had to wait a few days for the tests, but I've seen people performing quick tests on the go, inside their car even, and they know the result like 3-6 hours afterwards.
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The test that Digi did likely has to be processed by a third party processing location.

So it takes time for the samples to be collected and submitted in batch, then delivered to the facility, then the facility to do the tests, then the results have to be processed and sent to a result notification department do get ahold of the people.

Ohio has a state of the art best in world hospital systems with The Cleveland Clinic and University Hospital. They were one of the first in the US to do the testing and processing in their own facilities. They are capable of having the results in the shortest amount of time possible, but they indicate it could take 8 hours for you to be notified of the results because of the potential for vast quantity of tests. Despite all that, they are running short on some of the supplies, which is why during the daily Ohio COVID-19 press conferences the medical personal always says how they need to have more tests and do more testing to get a real idea on how far the virus actually spread.

Ohio Hospitals that are outside the UH system have to either submit their tests to UH to be done or they have to find their own lab facility to do the processing for them. So they have to wait on the overall latency.

Also, part of this could be the number of actual tests just isn't being reporting anymore in a timely fashion so it's difficult to know exactly how many tests are given. It's probably that only those sick enough to be hospitalized are tested in addition to others sick enough to be referred by their doctor to get the test are tested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_Hospitals_Cleveland_Medical_Center
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Clinic
 
Cyan said:
what kind of tests are being used? There are some quick test available, afaik.
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I believe there's presently only one test available which is the presence of viral RNA using RT-PCR. The speed of test results is determined mostly by the infrastructure of the testing, how quickly one can get a sample to a lab and PCR machine to perform the test. In some countries, tests are taken locally to the testing facilities. In others, they are shipped cross-country/county to somewhere to be processed.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I believe there's presently only one test available which is the presence of viral RNA using RT-PCR. The speed of test results is determined mostly by the infrastructure of the testing, how quickly one can get a sample to a lab and PCR machine to perform the test. In some countries, tests are taken locally to the testing facilities. In others, they are shipped cross-country/county to somewhere to be processed.
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Spartan Biotech has just launched a small portable machine which produces results on site in under an hour.

However they won't be shipping out of Canada for a while as the government has purchased all they can produce for the near future.
 
There is more and more talk in German media to go “back to normal soon”...I hope the politicians can resist this pressure, because as a mathematician...I am afraid and feel unease with this perspective.

If we make a generous assumption of the unknown infections, we still only have about 1% infected right now. If we reduce measurements now, we basically start from the beginning again, but with 99% instead of 100%...this makes the current measurements obsolete as they had no effect. Than all damage to economy was for nothing.

It is hard to estimate the real death rate, but even small rates extrapolate to a high number of deaths if we let it go. So I do not understand, why people are even discussing this as a real option.

The only thing that gives hope is somewhat Sweden imo...they, so far, seem to do quite good?!
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

April 14, 2020 - 1877 confirmed cases - 42 deaths

1877 confirmed cases up 89 over yesterday and ten new deaths
Those 89 new cases represent a 5.0% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 19 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8% and now 5.0%

Increases (by count) over the last 19 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100, +90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65 and now +89

Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 89 additional positive cases of COVID-19 today, bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 1,877. Ten additional deaths are being reported, including:

  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas and had been hospitalized in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 80’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas and had been hospitalized in an area hospital.
  • A woman in her 50’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas.
  • A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the city of Dallas.
  • A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the city of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the city of Dallas and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 30’s who was a resident of the city of Garland and had been critically ill in an area hospital.
  • A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of the city of Mesquite and had been hospitalized in an area hospital.
  • A man in his 80’s who was a resident of the city of DeSoto and had been found deceased at home.
Of cases requiring hospitalization, most (69%) have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in over a quarter (30%) of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
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State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/14/2020 @ 11:45 AM:

Total Tests: 146,467 (Up +13,241)
Cases Reported: 14,624 (Up +718)
In Hospitals: 1,409 (Up +233)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 2,580 (Up 311)
Fatalities: 318 (Up 31)

It was good to see the daily count of Tests increase by 52.7% since yesterday. +13,241 today vs +8,673 yesterday and over three time the +4020 tests done just two days ago.
 
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pascal said:
I just listened a audio from a Doctor and hospital owner saying that this specific virus move like a parasite.
Move using the mouth, nose and respiratory system. Doesnt use the circulatory system (blood).
Maybe it makes reinfection possible.
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What kind of doctor? A MD should know about Malaria and the parasite thats responsible for it.
 
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