I just listened a audio from a Doctor and hospital owner saying that this specific virus move like a parasite.
Move using the mouth, nose and respiratory system. Doesnt use the circulatory system (blood).
Maybe it makes reinfection possible.
Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]
- Thread starter RDGoodla
- Start date
I just listened a audio from a Doctor and hospital owner saying that this specific virus move like a parasite.
Move using the mouth, nose and respiratory system. Doesnt use the circulatory system (blood).
Maybe it makes reinfection possible.
Yes. All infectious diseases can be contracted again. If there's some measles virus out there, someone with it will pass virions to everyone around them. Those virions will pass into the mucus membranes and infect the person - there is nothing that can stop the virus infection. The body has no mechanism to prevent the virus entering the airways or landing on the mucus membranes or infecting the host organism. However, once a person has had measles before, their body is trained to deal with the infection. A very rapid response sees an exponential rate of antibody production in response to a known antigen, and the virus is killed off before it can infect too many cells and progress to the disease. SARS-Cov2 will join the ranks of 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 as a virus that now exists in the human population. People will get it and re-get it. We've yet to see what the secondary infection response is, whether the virus is contagious in those being 'reinfected', whether people go on to develop symptoms, or whether it's completely harmless as the host's immune system can lock it down. It'd would be very odd if the biological response to this coronavirus was wildly different from others though, so the expectation should be more along the lines of a worst first-infection and then perhaps a cold on future infections. Because young people can survive Covid19 with little impact, quite possibly in future no old people will become critically ill because their body was trained when young, and it's only as a new virus with no species-level immunity that it's impactful.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
I don't think that math makes any sense at all. I'm saying that majority of infected aren't being tested whether they have symptoms or not. Vast majority of people with heavy symptoms are being tested, the less symptoms you have, the less likely you are being tested and many who have it are just riding it out at home. When more people are tested across all of the population the more the death rate goes down.
It wasn't even close to being a best case scenario. About 1/3 of the passengers were 70 or older. A much higher age than the typical population. You overestimate the capabilities of the health care system on this decease. It's a virus to which there is currently no cure. Ventilators and such aren't doing any miracles, those who really need them face a grim outlook regardless.
I think you are twisting my points a bit... I said not quite that contagious referring to your point about majority of the world population getting it in couple of months. Based on what I've seen it doesn't seem to be as contagious as you are suggesting, but clearly it's still contagious. I was in Thailand and Vietnam when the shit really started to hit the fan and the population density in some of the places there is such that if this virus really spreads like wildfire it would be game over there... I flew back to Finland on April 1st and in Bangkok tons of people were out, way less than normally, but still tons. Many had masks, but also many didn't. Perhaps the hot climate helps there..
I initially said that I'm not worried about the current numbers too much as at this level they barely register. You said that is only because of the lockdown. I didn't disagree, I just mentioned that the lockdowns aren't nearly to the same degree as they were in China. They are clearly helping to contain the spread I never stated otherwise, I specifically mentioned that if not contained the worst case scenario would almost stop the population growth for this year and that's about 80 million people dead from this. I had no other comment about that, other than saying that it wouldn't put us in to a endangered species list. I mentioned at least twice that I don't propose a strategy change for the current actions.
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A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y
Veteran
State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
The data is updated daily by 1:00 PM.
Data as of 4/11/2020 @ 11:40 AM:
Total Tests: 120,533
Cases Reported: 12,561
In Hospitals: 1,514
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 1,617
Fatalities: 254
From the map I found it interesting that there are large clusters in Dallas and Houston but also along the I-35 interstate from Dallas through Austin and San Antonio so the virus is being spread by driving between hot spots along the way.
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
The data is updated daily by 1:00 PM.
Data as of 4/11/2020 @ 11:40 AM:
Total Tests: 120,533
Cases Reported: 12,561
In Hospitals: 1,514
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 1,617
Fatalities: 254
From the map I found it interesting that there are large clusters in Dallas and Houston but also along the I-35 interstate from Dallas through Austin and San Antonio so the virus is being spread by driving between hot spots along the way.
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Death rate will be based on those infected who catch the disease, which is why we have to use case death rate. That is, final death toll will be what proportion of the world gets Covid19, and what proportion of them die. If the infection only reaches 10% of people, that's going to reduce the impact considerably, but AFAICS there's nothing to suggest the virus won't spread to everyone eventually (until herd immunity stops it). Of the people who do get the virus, some 50% have no symptoms, and then you have the rest. It's going to be a lot of people who get the disease in serious way.
If you take the Diamond Princess as indicative, only 11 people died out of 700 cases. That means 1.5%. So if that's the case, why are there thousands of dead in the UK? If 10,000 dead is 1.5%, then that means the total infected rate is over 650,000. You're suggesting the real infected might be an order of magnitude greater than recorded, but I don't think that theory holds. That could only be the case if either most people weren't showing any notable signs, or many, many people were getting ill but not being treated. Places that tested everyone found 50% may be asymptomatic. It's far more likely that instead of having a massive unrecorded, asymptomatic infected population, it just isn't spreading that fast (which ties in with your comment about contagiousness) and what we see in reported and hospitalised cases is 50% of the virus, not just 10%.
Sorry, I don't mean to twist them, but I'm interpreting them. I guess what you're talking about is the R0 number. Indeed, the virus isn't very contagious in terms of people infected from each case. However, the exponential growth is still valid. Regardless how the virus compares to other viruses in terms of ability to spread, it was getting 12% growth daily. We had countries with cases doubling in 3-4 days. At the beginning of February, that's what China had...
Going by those umbers, 12,000 cases at the end of January and 20% growth per day would be 12,000 x 1.2^28 for February, which would be 2 million. By the end of March, that'd be 12,000 x 1.2^59 = 563 million.
That's because the R0 is low, as you say. That measure of contagiousness places SARS-Cov2 pretty low. However, in terms of its ability to spread and impact the population, exponential growth being what it is, yes, the whole world could have been infected in a few months.
Okay, I see that now. Although I didn't do the maths and just noticed you say the growth would be stopped for one year after saying in a previous post that growth was 200,000k a year, reading you as saying world deaths from Covid19 at worst would be 200,000.
80 million additional deaths probably shouldn't be waved off as barely registering.
Still missing key parts required for significant testing, so flying with blinders on more than they want.
Ohio continues to use the CDC Expanded Case Definition (Probable) and CDC Expanded Death Definition (Probable) so the numbers were adjusted again today -- but I still don't know if they are total or just a single day update.
Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 6250 (up from 5878 ), Hospitalized: 1859 (up from 1755 ), and Deaths: 247 (up from 231 ).
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1113 (Up from 1052 ).
Percentage increase: 6.33%, 5.93%, 6.93%
Raw increase: 372, 104, 16
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 63, 5
Ohio continues to use the CDC Expanded Case Definition (Probable) and CDC Expanded Death Definition (Probable) so the numbers were adjusted again today -- but I still don't know if they are total or just a single day update.
Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 6250 (up from 5878 ), Hospitalized: 1859 (up from 1755 ), and Deaths: 247 (up from 231 ).
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1113 (Up from 1052 ).
Percentage increase: 6.33%, 5.93%, 6.93%
Raw increase: 372, 104, 16
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 63, 5
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Yes I am just speculating that if on this very instant every person on the planet would be tested and we'd get the results instantly, the reported death figure would be the same, but the amount of infected would see a very large rise in numbers.
I do like the Diamond Princess data, because it's one of the rare situations where we can see such a complete picture with so very few unknowns and the sample size, while not huge is still quite large for analysis. The UK and some other countries do look much worse, but I have to think that under reporting and tests being primarily done to more sick people are the main culprits until other more convincing evidence pops up.
It's ok and I could have been more clear. I do have some suspicion/crazy theory that in most countries there is a weird situation going on where the confirmed infected numbers rise quickly due to similar ramping up the testing, but that numbers are still under reported, because the testing volume isn't sufficient. I feel like the death curve is the only thing we get in real time and the total cases curve is lagging reality by significant margin of time. For example the current UK total cases curve might have been the reality 2-3 weeks ago instead of today.
Okay, I see that now. Although I didn't do the maths and just noticed you say the growth would be stopped for one year after saying in a previous post that growth was 200,000k a year, reading you as saying world deaths from Covid19 at worst would be 200,000.
80 million additional deaths probably shouldn't be waved off as barely registering.
Yeah the current population growth is about 225k every day or little over 80 Million people a year. The current corona death levels don't change those numbers all that much which I was referring with the not registering much, but naturally going from 225k a day to about 0 would register quite loudly ever if there still are about 7.8 Billion of us left.
I think that's accepted theory, but how much is the big question. Lots of people think they've already had it, and best case, it turns out they have, but in my mind the reason testing isn't that flawed is because most of the tests are -ve and they are targeting the people more likely to test positive due to contact with known cases. In the early days of contact tracing, not even 10% of people were testing positive. Now a large proportion, up to a third, are testing positive. If the proportion of tests testing positive was very high, like 90%, then I think we'd be seeing saturation of the test results and lots of +ve being missed. But as the test results are very low, I don't think lots of +ves have been missed beyond the known asymptomatic proportion which is ~50% of total.
If we didn't have the 50% figure of other samplings, we'd be guessing as to what proportion are asymptomatic, but we've a couple of thorough test examples that pin it at 50%.
A virologist's take on reinfections, from Twitter...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244029896453754880.html
If you are hearing about #covid19 “reinfections” in Asia, I can offer you my take as a virologist. The best explanation for what we’re seeing is likely due to three things...
1) The patients have likely indeed recovered from their covid infection and are on their way to clearing the virus as their immune system hunts down every infected cell and stray virion. But there are still lingering bits and pieces of the virus around.
2) these tests can be very sensitive at detecting viral genetic material, even it’s just a non-infectious byproduct of the immune system conquering the virus.
3) but it’s also sometimes the case that the test yields a false negative result; maybe the swab didn’t pick up enough material or was mishandled, so the next retest turning up positive could be catching the original infection, not a new one.
Any responsible coverage of these “reinfection” rumors makes the point that we should not assume that these recovered patients actually were reinfected again or even that the low levels of viral material detected means they are infectious to others.
For example, NPR writes “It is unclear whether they are infectious and why they tested positive after their earlier negative test.”
Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then PositiveNPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
The main reason I’m skeptical that patients were actually reinfected so soon after recovering is due to what we know of the virus and recovery. Patients who beat their infection (and ~98-99% do), do so because their immune systems rev up enough to beat it.
And covid is barely mutating the parts that the immune system recognizes (the spike protein), so once a patient beats their high level of virus, they would easily be able to beat back whatever little virus they might get exposed to from others.
That’s how immunity works. Immunity can fade, but not on the scale on weeks that these reports suggest. Maybe after a year. So for now, these reports of “reinfections” are likely just an artifact of imperfect testing.
Covid-19 is a shock to all of us, but that doesn’t mean that it’s likely behaving radically differently from what we know of other viruses, even other coronaviruses. Odds are high there will be a simpler explanation soon if it’s not out there already (please send if you see one).
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1244029896453754880.html
If you are hearing about #covid19 “reinfections” in Asia, I can offer you my take as a virologist. The best explanation for what we’re seeing is likely due to three things...
1) The patients have likely indeed recovered from their covid infection and are on their way to clearing the virus as their immune system hunts down every infected cell and stray virion. But there are still lingering bits and pieces of the virus around.
2) these tests can be very sensitive at detecting viral genetic material, even it’s just a non-infectious byproduct of the immune system conquering the virus.
3) but it’s also sometimes the case that the test yields a false negative result; maybe the swab didn’t pick up enough material or was mishandled, so the next retest turning up positive could be catching the original infection, not a new one.
Any responsible coverage of these “reinfection” rumors makes the point that we should not assume that these recovered patients actually were reinfected again or even that the low levels of viral material detected means they are infectious to others.
For example, NPR writes “It is unclear whether they are infectious and why they tested positive after their earlier negative test.”
Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then PositiveNPR interviewed four residents of Wuhan who contracted the virus, recovered — but then had a retest that turned positive. What does that mean for China's recovery from COVID-19?https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
The main reason I’m skeptical that patients were actually reinfected so soon after recovering is due to what we know of the virus and recovery. Patients who beat their infection (and ~98-99% do), do so because their immune systems rev up enough to beat it.
And covid is barely mutating the parts that the immune system recognizes (the spike protein), so once a patient beats their high level of virus, they would easily be able to beat back whatever little virus they might get exposed to from others.
That’s how immunity works. Immunity can fade, but not on the scale on weeks that these reports suggest. Maybe after a year. So for now, these reports of “reinfections” are likely just an artifact of imperfect testing.
Covid-19 is a shock to all of us, but that doesn’t mean that it’s likely behaving radically differently from what we know of other viruses, even other coronaviruses. Odds are high there will be a simpler explanation soon if it’s not out there already (please send if you see one).
Regarding the UK fatality rate, don't forget that almost all confirmed cases are from those either admitted to hospital with the illness or who are discovered to have it after testing because they are already in hospital.
There is almost no way if anyone else getting a test. Therefore, the fatality rate vs confirmed cases is wildly inaccurate.
I'm expecting actual fatality rate to be somewhere in the order of that of South Korea as they are the only ones actually testing out in the community.
Serological tests to see who has actually had it (perhaps without knowing) would be helpful. Apparently, the many varieties of personal finger prick kits probably won't be much use as they are unlikely to ever be accurate enough.
There is almost no way if anyone else getting a test. Therefore, the fatality rate vs confirmed cases is wildly inaccurate.
I'm expecting actual fatality rate to be somewhere in the order of that of South Korea as they are the only ones actually testing out in the community.
Serological tests to see who has actually had it (perhaps without knowing) would be helpful. Apparently, the many varieties of personal finger prick kits probably won't be much use as they are unlikely to ever be accurate enough.
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y
Veteran
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php
April 11, 2020 - 1644 confirmed cases - 27 deaths
1644 confirmed cases up 107 over yesterday and two new deaths
Those 107 new cases represent a 7.0% increase over the last day
Increases (by percent) over the last 16 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3% and now 7.0%
Increases (by count) over the last 16 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100, +90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108, +105 and now +107
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php
April 11, 2020 - 1644 confirmed cases - 27 deaths
1644 confirmed cases up 107 over yesterday and two new deaths
Those 107 new cases represent a 7.0% increase over the last day
Increases (by percent) over the last 16 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3% and now 7.0%
Increases (by count) over the last 16 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100, +90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108, +105 and now +107
As for social distancing, it helps a lot! But any asymptomatic or symptomatic person could touch their nose and then touch a button of a lift or a door's knob and anyone could get infected, if they touch things in the supermarket someone infected touched, etc. There is a lot to it.
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There's pretty big differences in policy if you look at social supports, religion vs. science, and the taxation of the wealthy.
Distancing is the big part, some studies show the chances of passing from a surface seem to be low. But if your government isn't telling you not to touch your face they should be and if you touch anything wash your hands. Oh and wash your hands some more.
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y
Veteran
Pandemic be damned, Dak Prescott hosts a coronavirus party for 30
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...ak-prescott-hosts-a-party-for-30/?partner=MSN
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...ak-prescott-hosts-a-party-for-30/?partner=MSN
people like that deserve to be jailed. Aren't people fined there when they break the confinement rules? Here the police fines people because of non compliance of resolutions agreed upon the pandemic. The fine varies, but it's in the 600€ minimum and 30000€ maximum.
Thankfully SARS-Cov2 is easily controlled in the environment. The virus is fat based, not protein based, so is easily killed by simple detergent (soap) which means you can readily protect yourself. Consider everything you touch since returning from the shop as contaminated. If you go shopping, and then open the garden gate, the gate is contaminated. Get your keys out? Contaminated. Turn the door handle? Contaminated. So the moment you have access to a sink (if you can open doors without using your hands, do so!), wash you hands, and then go back and wash everything touched.
Food can be left a few days before packing it away. The virus has a 24 hour lifespan on cardboard. Glass jars and bottles can sustain it for up to 9 days, so put them at the back of the cupboard, or wash them with soap.
If you consider everything inside you home now as safe, then treat everything that goes outside among people and back again as unsafe until it's cleared a quarantine period. It's also killed by UV, so it's unlikely to live well on outside surfaces.
I think the greatest risk of infection comes from virions in the air. In supermarkets, asymptomatic spreaders simply breathing are releasing infectious particles, and they can hang around for hours. Walking down an aisle an infected visited 10 minutes earlier could see you inhale a bug. However, the virus has shown itself to not be highly contagious that way. I guess the social distance of 2 metres ends up with a dilution factor of the virions that if you do encounter any, they are too few to amount to an infection. I suppose we won't know until we see how lockdown countries fair, contrasting those allowed to go shopping with those who aren't.
It depends on the country. Some have guidelines more than rules. Some feel having the State demand behaviour of people is a significant infraction of their human rights to freedom, so the State isn't going full on control-freak. Some countries fear that if the State starts walking down that path ever, if may end up staying a Control-Freak state, so they are reliant more on personal responsibility, which some people lack.
Also, some fines aren't enough of a deterrent. For people stuck indoors for a couple of weeks, £30 to go outside and enjoy the sun if they get caught is pretty good value. If you're a millionaire, a maximum 30000€ fine to throw a party might seem good value. Maximum fines generally mean your fine won't be a deterrent to rich people.
Wait the guy is connecting the dots between roundup and covid, and then shows the US map with the covid hotspot new york city etc
cause as we all know the USA grows their crops in new york and not out in the country wheres theirs few covid cases
heres a competing hypothesis that fits better with the data, roundup prevents covid! we should be drinking the stuff
(roundup is bad stuff obviously, but personally I think it, like 5g has zero to do with covid)
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y
Veteran
The enforcement here is entirely voluntary.
As for the actual party this was the Police response to the complaint:
Note the current tense in the report "was", "weren't", "after" and "unable".
In the original report it stated the party had already happened so it looks like when the police responded to the complaint the party was already over and probably cleaned up.
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