We already know Fifa and NBA 2K are a lock for Switch this year, and I personally think that Madden is likely now that Switch is off to a good start. By the time Madden releases in August, Switch could have an install base north of 6 million units, and Nintendo isn't releasing any major first party titles that month that would cannibalize potential sales for Madden. If these titles do well this year on Switch, I would expect them to become yearly releases.
COD for Wii was always a secret leading up to release day. I remember Activison wouldn't not acknowledge the existence of these games being on Wii until they were put on store shelves. It was kind of funny looking back on it. I give COD a 25% chance of coming to Switch. These large publishers might not feel there is enough potential for a big return on investment with Switch. When they are accustomed to selling over 15 million units between the Xbox and Playstation, selling south of a million units on Switch might be seen as a waste of time. Even if profit exceeds cost, they may feel like the investment is better placed elsewhere with bigger potential for return.