What if Nintendo repeats the strategy with the Wii on their new console?

[Flux]

What if within 3-5 years nintendo releases a new console that is outdated but is only slightly more powerful than PS3/360?

 

[Color me Dan]

I mean no disrespect, and I'm certainly not an expert, but I think it'd be better to start such a question rolling with your own thought on the issue as well to spur discussion along.

I'd think that, again no expert statement, it might be shooting themselves in the foot a bit. Setting a software company up to make titles for new hardware on the scale needed for consoles need certain assurances to make it worth your while. The current console cycle almost seems to short as it is with developers getting into their stride right now and having learn't the hardware with half the console lifetime left (more or less). You'd want time enough to make as many games as possible based on the know-how you've now got to recoup the initial investment and make a profit. Not to mention the acquisition costs of both tools and hardware and the time it takes to actually finish a game, no small task. An AAA title can take more then 3-4 years to develop. Not going to be much use if the AAA title and the console it's aimed for is superseded by new hardware by the time of release.

Punching out hardware faster then the industry wants or can handle is not going to do anything but harm for Nintendo.

 

[eastmen]

what would be the draw to this system.

It seems to me that the major draw for the system are activity based . You have your wii sports , wii fit and party games like wario ware and what have you .

Would the majority of wii owners really want to upgrade their console in 3-5 years just to get high def verisons of these. These games already look like dreamcast titles let alone xbox and xbox 360 level graphics .

I really don't know what nintendo is going to do , however i don't see them getting people to go ut and rebuy the wii for just hd graphics .

 

[AlphaWolf]

That'd be a larger jump than GC to wii wouldn't it?

 

[zarbaj]

I believe they will but the question is, will Sony do the same?

i doubt MS can since they also have games for windows, which means their next console must be up to date.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

I dont think the next Wii console will be weak at all, if it is i predict it to fail miserably.

Sony and Microsoft both are going to allmost surely go for powerful consoles, and they can easily have motion controls that are far superior to what the Wii today offers.

If Sony & Microsoft also have motion controls, + much better technology, i dont see how the Wii will compete in the long run. The prices differences between the Wii and the cheapest Sony\ microsoft offering would have to be huge for anybody to keep buying a Wii.

If you get the choice between Sony\Microsoft offerings, which haves the same control scheme if wanted, plus all the other features MS\Sony consoles have + better graphics, only kids will buy a Wii.

Then then again, that may just be the case today, that a lot of kids buy\want Nintendo Wii's. Atleast when i was growing up, Nintendo allways was the most kid friendly console by miles.

 

[zarbaj]

actually, not only kids are buying the wii but also old folks.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If Sony & Microsoft also have motion controls, + much better technology, i dont see how the Wii will compete in the long run.

One could argue software. Nintendo are using their motion controls effectively to attract people to Wii. MS and Sony have all sorts of assets to draw on such as camera based gaming, and they're doing diddly-squat with them. There's good reason to think motion controls would be somewhat ignored by developers. I mean, even on Wii it's absically Nintendo using motion and everyone else copying. There's hardly any innovation going on there. Unless the console company leads with the software, the rest of the game developers won't change suat in how they do things, and they'll just churn out more of the same.

 

[Mintmaster]

What MS and Sony can do is heavily limited by these 'assets' not being standard on every console. Sony may still be able to do something on PS2, since a cheap peripheral and good game could get enough adoption among the 100M owners to create a Wii-like platform that gains critical mass (though it would have been much better to do this a few years ago); however, PS3 and 360 really suffer from the chicken-and-egg problem, and the MS has the additional problem of not having a 'fun' brand image for the market you're talking about.

 

[obonicus]

...

I think you're downplaying price. Most people aren't that interested in tech; the people that do are the ones who are willing to pay $300-600 for a console. In other words: us. And we don't really represent the people who are buying Wii Fit in droves, I think, and we're not the ones who are terribly impressed about motion controls.

If Nintendo can keep price down, make a profit on each console and deliver their killer apps (something Nintendo doesn't need 3rd parties for) they'll probably succeed. Microsoft would have to undercut Nintendo there, and they'd still have trouble reaching the same customer segment.

 

[Xalion]

Personally, I think you will see Microsoft and Sony play the price game next generation. Both can use the basic technology in their existing consoles in much the same way Nintendo used the Gamecube electronics this generation. So both if they chose to could produce relatively inexpensive machines that have a lot of power. If they go that route and ignore the "most powerful" title next gen, I have a feeling Nintendo might have trouble competing with their deep pockets.

Of course if they go for the hardware power title, Nintendo could probably execute the exact same strategy with much the same success. I just find that unlikely considering the shakeups that have happened at both companies.

 

[fearsomepirate]

When talking about MS and Sony's "deep pockets," don't forget that Nintendo is currently swimming in cash. This isn't 2004. This is 2008, after two years of ridiculous profits and a stock that's more than doubled in value. I'll bet Nintendo's got more cash on hand to spend on gaming than either MS or Sony at this point, should they actually feel like losing a few billion. Also, Nintendo's strategy wasn't "waggle." It was "waggle + Wii Sports." The disruptive software is what made the Wii a phenomenon, much like how DS blew up more because of Nintendogs and Brain Training than the touch screen alone. If Nintendo repeats the strategy of "low cost hardware + imagination-grabbing interface + disruptive software," then they may very well be on top for two generations running.

I dont think the next Wii console will be weak at all, if it is i predict it to fail miserably.

And what did you predict the current console's success to be? Did you predict it to be the market leader by this time? Or did you predict failure?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Personally, I think you will see Microsoft and Sony play the price game next generation. Both can use the basic technology in their existing consoles in much the same way Nintendo used the Gamecube electronics this generation. So both if they chose to could produce relatively inexpensive machines that have a lot of power. If they go that route and ignore the "most powerful" title next gen, I have a feeling Nintendo might have trouble competing with their deep pockets.

Of course if they go for the hardware power title, Nintendo could probably execute the exact same strategy with much the same success. I just find that unlikely considering the shakeups that have happened at both companies.

Ofcourse that leaves a few problems. The main problem would be that just having a lower price wont help you anything. The GC always had a low price though that didnt help a thing because it didnt appeal to most people. That is exactly what could happen with a cheap x720 or ps4. Sure they can do a 1.5 of their last gen console and make it cheap but would people be interrested in that? Nintendo had the wii remote as the extra thing to make people interrested, just making a cheap console alone isnt enough. Second what if ms or sony ends up being the only one going for the cheap model? That would mean that if they dont manage to do a wii and add something extra that draws in people they are screwed because they dont have that extra thing and they dont have the power either. Only the lower price but who is going to pay 250 euro's for a system that isnt interresting? even at 200 euro's MS is having a though time in europe so you'd imagen what could happen...

Though I do think they will try to keep costs down next gen but probably more for themselves and not for the consumers. So no big losses on the first 1 or 2 years of hardware but try keeping it more to atleast breaking even. These new hardware gets more and more expensive but you cant really keep charging more and more money (as sony learned) so there will be a point where they need to draw a line and decide that more might not be worth it anymore.

 

[Mobius1aic]

Well first of all, you'd have to convince the Wii crowd that they should buy a whole new system (but then again they were easily coaxed into buying Wii Fit), but I do agree that Nintendo will have to really make a much more powerful system this time around. However I don't suspect it to be as powerful as the next Playstation or Xbox, but I do expect it to be a much smaller relative gap than the Wii compared to the 360 and PS3. It does help Nintendo out in regards to the fact that hardware is a generation or so from hitting really high diminishing returns unless TV resolutions are amped up again (which I'm sure is a couple decades off).

Still though, I think alot of Wii owners are looking forward to the next system being truly HD capable and alot more visually competitive. I have plenty to say about the Wii's graphical position already (but I'm not going there right now).