The "what is a successful game?"/"are exclusives worth it?" cost/benefit thread

[ShadowRunner]

Why all the talk about sales? To me big games dont have to mean big sales.

One of the biggies im hopeing will be out this year is Last Guardian. And no, that doesnt mean i think it will sell more than Halo

Also im quietly praying for an Infamous 2 announcement.

On 360 arent we due Gears 3 yet?

 

[assen]

Why all the talk about sales? To me big games dont have to mean big sales.

Well, big sales is one of the very few objective measurements we can have. The other is Metacritic score, but for some reason it tends to evoke frothing from the mouth in many people

The Last Guardian has all chances to rank high on Metacritic, given how reviewers love PS3 exclusive, Japanese and pretentious - it combines all of them!

 

[ShadowRunner]

Based on the performance of previous installments, we should expect Fable 3 to outsell GOW3.... I think that is why some people on this thread are questioning the importance of GOW3. Fable 3 seems to be the "oh yeah, whatever" runt in this discussion, (and perhaps rightly so), but what does that make GOW3? I think there are a lot of titles that will match or exceed GOW3, on all three platforms, and its importance is greatly overstated.

How did GOW1 & 2 fare among other big titles realeased at that point in PS2s life? Id be willing to bet it sold significantly more than most other games around the same period on PS2.

Its hard to tell how well GOW3 will do based on the sales of previous games, we dont realy know how many active PS2 users there were of the demographic GOW apeals to. I know i missed out on 1 & 2 because i was no longer gaming on PS2, though if i had i would have bought them and am definatey going to pick up GOW3. Its the same sort of thing as the Yakuza franchise in a way. I do predict GOW3 selling great though if only because its style and scale will make for excellent TV ads.

Anyway i was trying to stay away from sales discussion

 

[ShadowRunner]

Well, big sales is one of the very few objective measurements we can have. The other is Metacritic score, but for some reason it tends to evoke frothing from the mouth in many people

The Last Guardian has all chances to rank high on Metacritic, given how reviewers love PS3 exclusive, Japanese and pretentious - it combines all of them!

Maybe games people are looking forward to would make a better thread?

And meacritic scores is a much better metric than sales, im sure most people want to know about all the great games coming next year not the ones that are going to sell lots.

Edit: Oh and add Red Dead Redempion to my list of big games for 2010

 

[assen]

Maybe games people are looking forward to would make a better thread?

Beyond3D is all about numbers, so "who will have the largest penis" threads are naturally more interesting

That said, I'm looking forward to Rage. It might or might not be big, depending on how competent the marketing is; I believe the core game will be good enough not to defeat a good marketing campaign, and the visuals will be attractive.

 

[Squilliam]

I don't know if it's just advertising effectiveness or what, but a good post-mortem is needed to figure out why the PS3's highly acclaimed exclusives underperfromed compared to the 360's exclusives.

I have two related theories on this:

1. Their games seem to aim narrower in terms of appeal. They make blockbuster software but they don't seem to encompass as much of the entire market with it. In addition to this they tend to focus on being spectacular in some way whereas the Microsoft games tend to hit all the check boxes of local/online multiplayer'local coop/online coop etc first. Games which have extra utility like local play tend to sell better than games which eschew these features.

2. Their games have much stronger competition than Microsoft games from multi-platform games. For example Microsoft got Halo 3, Gears of War out before Call of Duty 4 whereas Sony had to wait until after with Killzone 2 and Resistance Fall of man 2. In addition to this Microsoft had more time to drag in a userbase for the games they were looking to create. They have a hardcore userbase of WRPG players as big WRPGs tend to sell 2-3M and not much more on the system and they have hardcore shooter players who will buy more than one big title for the year in that genre.

 

[Butta]

Maybe games people are looking forward to would make a better thread?

That was the intent of this thread, predict what big games will come out Holiday 2010. We already seem to have an idea on the 360 and know of a couple on the Wii. The PS3 is a total mystery... nothing is known so far.

 

[msia2k75]

Well, I suppose the unmentioned measuring sticks being used in this thread are actually Gears of War, which sold over 5 million to a userbase that was half as big as the PS3's currently. The Halo 3 phenomenon was predictable, but MGS4 was a poor substitute for Gears of War in terms of this discussion, and no other PS3 exclusive came anywhere close.

As another example, most people think Forza 2 was not very successful, but it will probably prove to have outsold UC2 at the end of the generation, based on the current state of UC2 sales, despite F2 having released to a smaller userbase than U2 at the time.

I don't know if it's just advertising effectiveness or what, but a good post-mortem is needed to figure out why the PS3's highly acclaimed exclusives underperfromed compared to the 360's exclusives.

A lot of multiplatforms also sell less on the PS3...

 

[Laa-Yosh]

How did GOW1 & 2 fare among other big titles realeased at that point in PS2s life?

Did not make the top ten list that year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_in_video_gaming#Video_game_sales

It sold about 3-3.5 million units altogether, the sequel somewhat less. I still think it's because it's very bloody and violent, and also because it's hard (according to several guys here at work). Or maybe it's the setting, or that Kratos doesn't look too friendly..?

Edit: although... we might need to add the PS3 updated GOW collection's sales to the above numbers?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

We need an actual figure to determine success of sales, or if you're saying about reaching expectations, we need figures from Sony about what they were expecting.

Zassk has summed it up pretty well.

But again, here are a few options:
- MS has probably sold more units with a lesser number of total exclusive games
- Sony's exclusives seem to have been a lot more expensive
- General consensus is that Sony's exclusive lineup is better, although I haven't really checked every game's aggregate scores

Because of all this, one would expect to have Sony with a lot of games above 4-5 million units, but they only have MGS4 at ~4.4 million. Whereas MS has Forza, two Gears, two Halos - almost all of these released to a much smaller user base; and their combined sales are ~30 million units, more then the top 10 PS3 games.
So the general performance of MS exclusives is far better even though they are considered to be inferior.

That is why I say that except for MGS4, no Sony exclusive has sold as well as it's been expected; KZ2 in particular considering the buzz and the budget (probably the most expensive exclusive until GT5).

Other titles like U2 selling 2.5 million units (quote from deepbrown from other thread) strikes me as good sales. If we can't count 10% of userbase as good, there's no hope for the industry!

In the case of UC2, it's arguably one of the best games of the year, certainly in terms of review scores and graphics. I'd also say that it has very wide appeal - it's easy to get into, it looks wonderful, and so on.
So it would be reasonable to expect that it can outdo any other PS3 exclusive, including MGS4, but it seems the game isn't really on track to do so. We've already had a lot of discussion about why it isn't making the killing that it deserves... so it's definitely not performing as well as expected. Hopefully in time it can at least outdo the first Uncharted.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I have two related theories on this:

1. Their games seem to aim narrower in terms of appeal.

2. Their games have much stronger competition than Microsoft games from multi-platform games.

Both of your points have some reason, but they really can't explain all the sales. I'd say UC2 should have a wider appeal then Halo... but Sony could really look at MS about how to time their releases.

 

[deepbrown]

Well, big sales is one of the very few objective measurements we can have. The other is Metacritic score, but for some reason it tends to evoke frothing from the mouth in many people

The Last Guardian has all chances to rank high on Metacritic, given how reviewers love PS3 exclusive, Japanese and pretentious - it combines all of them!

Uh...the critics are a wide bunch of people with very different tastes - hence metacritic. And saying it would score well because they "love PS3 exclusives" implies all critics are now suddenly bias towards the console. How about we don't project bias on a collection of people and say that maybe, the PS3 had good games in 2009?

 

[deepbrown]

Did not make the top ten list that year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_in_video_gaming#Video_game_sales

It sold about 3-3.5 million units altogether, the sequel somewhat less. I still think it's because it's very bloody and violent, and also because it's hard (according to several guys here at work). Or maybe it's the setting, or that Kratos doesn't look too friendly..?

Edit: although... we might need to add the PS3 updated GOW collection's sales to the above numbers?

Gears of War is incredibly gruesome, but it sold well. And 3.5 million for a debut game isn't bad...that's what constitutes a successful investment.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Er, God of War has sold when the PS2 was already way above 100 million AFAIK.
GOW3 isn't gonna be a debut game, the PS3's been on the market for many years now.

Yeah, Gears is violent, but ... I'd say it's far more stylized and less emphatic. I mean the stuff in the GOW movies looks way more out there, at least to me. But you're right that it's probably not the only reason.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Did not make the top ten list that year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_in_video_gaming#Video_game_sales

It sold about 3-3.5 million units altogether, the sequel somewhat less. I still think it's because it's very bloody and violent, and also because it's hard (according to several guys here at work). Or maybe it's the setting, or that Kratos doesn't look too friendly..?

Edit: although... we might need to add the PS3 updated GOW collection's sales to the above numbers?

It was outsold by 3 starwars games and a whole bunch of anual sports game refreshes, it says quite a lot about the PS2s userbase at that time.

Following on from deepbrowns point i dont think Gears would have fared so well either if it had been released into that market.

Er, God of War has sold when the PS2 was already way above 100 million AFAIK.

Yes, but more importantly how many active PS2 users were there and what types or games were they into? it seams to me the majority left were the more "buy sports games of choice every year and not much else" crowd and kids. Much of the people a game like GOW or gears apeals to were no longer active ps2 users.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Zassk has summed it up pretty well.

But again, here are a few options:
- MS has probably sold more units with a lesser number of total exclusive games
- Sony's exclusives seem to have been a lot more expensive
- General consensus is that Sony's exclusive lineup is better, although I haven't really checked every game's aggregate scores

Because of all this, one would expect to have Sony with a lot of games above 4-5 million units, but they only have MGS4 at ~4.4 million. Whereas MS has Forza, two Gears, two Halos - almost all of these released to a much smaller user base; and their combined sales are ~30 million units, more then the top 10 PS3 games.
So the general performance of MS exclusives is far better even though they are considered to be inferior.

That is why I say that except for MGS4, no Sony exclusive has sold as well as it's been expected; KZ2 in particular considering the buzz and the budget (probably the most expensive exclusive until GT5).

Id say it is 360 exclusives doing exeedingly well rather than PS3 exclusives doing poorly.

Id also say its mostly own to userbase than anything. From the PS3 owners i know most are not as clued up on whats good and whats not compared to 360 owners and dont follow gaming sites etc. 360 got the hardcore crowd early. Expectations should be adjusted according to userbase in my opinion.

This kind of follows on from the GOW3 sales talk

 

[Squilliam]

Both of your points have some reason, but they really can't explain all the sales. I'd say UC2 should have a wider appeal then Halo... but Sony could really look at MS about how to time their releases.

There are some significant drawbacks to the way Uncharted 2 is made in terms of appeal and sales. Im going to bullet point it to save time.

1. The game is very story orientated, so that means if you don't like the story you won't buy it and if you do like the story but only want to experience it onces it translates to either a rental or a used copy transaction.

2. The game doesn't have any local multiplayer so its scope is more limited and so is the replayability.

3. The cinematic gameplay style doesn't work unless the player is carving up the enemy. The moment you die or run into difficulty the illusion of the hero and the immersion is broken.

4. Whilst the critics liked the game it may not have as wide appeal to more casual game players. Comparing Gears of War 1 to Uncharted 1 theres a difference in ease of playing. Gears 1 was an extremely casual game and very easy to pick up and play whilst the idea of jumping around and scaling walls may not be to as many peoples likings.

5. Theres no direct connection between the highest graphics quality and having the highest sales. If there was the PS3 games would be carving up the top of the sales charts and the Wii games would be languishing near the bottom.

 

[Lidve]

sorry double post

 

[Lidve]

I believe that Microsoft is still on top sale wise even though many would say they did not release many important exclusive titles this fall.

But multi-platform games like Modern Warfare 2 sold better on x360, and it counts a lot

For next year, unlike Sony (which announced many of its best games very early) Microsoft never speak of its plans too far ahead

so expect few amazing titles to be announced these days or around spring

Also, in long run, i think Microsoft will turn out as winner, because even though Sony is great company, they are Japanese, and their approach is somehow different than western approach - and being that most game developers are western companies - they share common mentality with Microsoft, and if Sony wasn't in dominant market position i am sure Microsoft would even reached some kind of monopoly over console market

And if you go back, you will see that Microsoft is now "top dog" in console market after just Xbox and Xbox360

I am pretty sure, that by the time they release "next big thing" they will be way ahead of both Nintendo and Sony

But thats just my prediction

 

[joker454]

I don't think you really understand SCE's tactics for their console. People buy the PS3 because of it's joint catalogue of high quality exclusives. If they stop making them, there's no reason to buy the console.

The problem is that this is a dead strategy. It makes no sense to funnel untold millions into exclusive games when you have an audience as small as the PS3's. The reality check is that multi platform games this gen are incredibly good, and as a result the exclusives simply don't stand out. You don't risk $1000 to earn $1050, and that's what exclusives have become this gen. Paying for exclusive joker dlc on Batman AA, now that was a great move on Sony's part. Paying to fund exclusives though is dead. I can see them still trying for a while since they made their bed and are kind of stuck in it this gen, but I'd expect that strategy to be heavily revised next gen. I'd understand them bankrolling a single studio like Naughty Dog, since they can serve as a tech house as well, beyond that there is no point. 3rd parties are plenty smart, support them well and they will deliver the best games, which is exactly what we have seen this gen.