Xbox Business Update Podcast | Xbox Everywhere Direction Discussion

[QPlayer]

I would argue that the big shrink happened in the Xbox userbase from X360 to X1. 85 million to 56 million. They're probably still on track for 45 million this time if they stuck it out until 2028, but they've decided not to.

Btw, I believe it's more profitable for MS to have 35 million GP subscribing Xbox Series owners than it was to have 85 million X360 owners.

If they can keep those fans while Sony, Nintendo and PC owners pay for their game development, they'll be rolling in money.

It is clear to me that they are working on unifying the Xbox console and the PC, hence the heavily rumored OEMs strategy. The availability of the Series consoles has been directly reduced, and there can only be one reason for this, the introduction of a new hardware family to the market on which the Game Pass subscription system will be operated. The ~ 30 million Xbox owners are already grumbling, they want to see guaranteed hardware for their GP subscription in the future. The first representative of this will be the Asus Xbox Handheld recently announced by an insider. I think it is very likely that more models will follow in the form of a desktop console. Anyway, the age of formfactor and MiniPCs is coming, and the rumored XboxPCs fit well into this picture.

 

[Cappuccino]

It doesn't matter what the sign is, it's just a fact.

24 million vs 85 million

From a business perspective and valuation, one was a failure and the other was a real success.

Why are you talking about consoles from 2005 when we are talking about carryover from Xbox Series X/S to whatever the next Xbox is?

The clear trend is that every generation since the 360, less people have bought an Xbox, even as the population increases. Xbox one sold 50 million and change, and so far XSX/S has sold a combined 20 and change (ironically, right around the OG Xbox which you call a failure).

So, any assertion that Xbox can glide to success each gen by just selling hardware to people who want to upgrade their current Xbox is shortsighted. They are losing almost half their marketshare every gen.

 

[see colon]

So, any assertion that Xbox can glide to success each gen by just selling hardware to people who want to upgrade their current Xbox is shortsighted. They are losing almost half their marketshare every gen.

Isn't that why they are diversifying where they sell games? I don't think anyone is thinking that selling Xbox hardware alone is going to be the future of Xbox. Just like Playstation is trying to diversify their hardware with Portal and VR, while releasing games, sometimes day and date, on PC, Switch and Xbox.

 

[Cyan]

Meaning? Unix wasn't created as a gaming OS per se, and hasn't evolved into a gaming optimised OS either. Its origins have zero bearing on Linux's suitability as a gaming OS.

just came across this Wiki article on Gabe Newell by sheer chance while I was fiddling with the OS, and this explains my point about the importance of gaming. If Microsoft can keep gamers happy, and with that a less bloated Windows, Windows is going to flourish. Until recently they just cared about a console traditional model, and in a very mediocre way.

A visionary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabe_Newell

In late 1995, Doom, a 1993 first-person shooter game developed by id Software, was estimated to be installed on more computers worldwide than Microsoft's new operating system, Windows 95. Newell said: "[id] ... didn't even distribute through retail, it distributed through bulletin boards and other pre-internet mechanisms. To me, that was a lightning bolt.

Microsoft was hiring 500-people sales teams and this entire company was 12 people, yet it had created the most widely distributed software in the world. There was a sea change coming.

In 2011, Newell said his favorite video games included Super Mario 64, Doom, and a Burroughs mainframe version of the 1971 Star Trek game, which was the first game he ever played.[39] Doom convinced him that games were the future of entertainment, and Super Mario 64 convinced him that games were art.

In 2007, Newell expressed his displeasure over developing for game consoles, saying that developing processes for Sony's PlayStation 3 was a "waste of everybody's time".[20][21] On stage at Sony's keynote at E3 2010, he acknowledged his criticism but discussed the open nature of the PlayStation 3 and announced a port of Portal 2, remarking that with Steamworks support it would be the best version for any console.[22] Newell also criticized the Xbox Live service, referring to it as a "train wreck",[23] and Windows 8, calling it a threat to the open nature of PC gaming.[24] At the 2013 LinuxCon, Newell said the Linux operating system and open source development were "the future of gaming". He accused the proprietary systems of companies such as Microsoft and Apple of stifling innovation through slow certification processes.

 

[see colon]

"Doom was on more PCs than Windows 95 in 1995" has always been a dumb statistic. I believe it is true, of course, but Doom had a price advantage, slightly lower system requirements, and a 2 year head start. Windows 95 released in August 1995, so any amount of time after that date in 1995 would have been at most 4 months, and we are to believe it was a failure for Microsoft to have not sold... I'm sorry, had installed, more copies of Windows 95 in those 4 moths than one of the most popular pieces of software created at that time?

I have no stats to back this up, but I believe in late 2013 there were more installs of Black Ops 2 on PCs or consoles than there were PS4 and Xbox One sold. What a failure of a console generation /sarcasm.

 

[Cappuccino]

Isn't that why they are diversifying where they sell games? I don't think anyone is thinking that selling Xbox hardware alone is going to be the future of Xbox. Just like Playstation is trying to diversify their hardware with Portal and VR, while releasing games, sometimes day and date, on PC, Switch and Xbox.

I think that's exactly why they are diversifying where they sell games, but that leaves the question of what exactly they are going to do with Xbox hardware: it makes no financial sense to spend R&D to make a console you lose money on per-unit for the first 3 years of it's life for a shrinking base. If every gen half as many people want to buy an Xbox, what is the point of making an Xbox, especially when you are already setting up PC to be a better place to play your games anyways!

 

[Cappuccino]

just came across this Wiki article on Gabe Newell by sheer chance while I was fiddling with the OS, and this explains my point about the importance of gaming. If Microsoft can keep gamers happy, and with that a less bloated Windows, Windows is going to flourish. Until recently they just cared about a console traditional model, and in a very mediocre way.

A visionary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabe_Newell

Important to note that pretty much none of Gabe's predictions came through and to this day even with SteamDeck less than 10% of Steam users use Linux. When you remove SD users it's like 1% of people lol.

 

[cheapchips]

Important to note that pretty much none of Gabe's predictions came through and to this day even with SteamDeck less than 10% of Steam users use Linux. When you remove SD users it's like 1% of people lol.

He made that final comment in 2007, the same year as the iPhone was released! Gaming is vastly on Unix/Linux, just on mobile and trapped within two app stores.

 

[rntongo]

I would argue that the big shrink happened in the Xbox userbase from X360 to X1. 85 million to 56 million. They're probably still on track for 45 million this time if they stuck it out until 2028, but they've decided not to.

Btw, I believe it's more profitable for MS to have 35 million GP subscribing Xbox Series owners than it was to have 85 million X360 owners.

If they can keep those fans while Sony, Nintendo and PC owners pay for their game development, they'll be rolling in money.

Hmmm, Those users are likely going to be split between Sony, Valve and Nintendo and XboxPCHybrid machine next gen

 

[Cappuccino]

He made that final comment in 2007, the same year as the iPhone was released! Gaming is vastly on Unix/Linux, just on mobile and trapped within two app stores.

Unsure if I’m being trolled here but he was absolutely not talking about mobile gaming here lol.

Also calling Darwin ‘Unix/Linux’ was always funny to me. Yes, it’s a Unix OS technically, but that’s just the kernel which only matters on a technical level. Nobody considers iOS some sort of distant Linux distro, beyond the kernel they share no similarities and the communities overlap almost nowhere.

 

[rntongo]

Why are you talking about consoles from 2005 when we are talking about carryover from Xbox Series X/S to whatever the next Xbox is?

The clear trend is that every generation since the 360, less people have bought an Xbox, even as the population increases. Xbox one sold 50 million and change, and so far XSX/S has sold a combined 20 and change (ironically, right around the OG Xbox which you call a failure).

So, any assertion that Xbox can glide to success each gen by just selling hardware to people who want to upgrade their current Xbox is shortsighted. They are losing almost half their marketshare every gen.

Its been a common theme that whenever Xbox makes a mistake, theres a push to celebrate it or deflect the consequences to the general industry. I think Phil decided with the Activision acquisition on a slow but sure end of Xbox hw, so now it has to be assumed that generally console hw is dead and the future will be subscription services which MS gaming is ahead in. Not that Xbox may have made some mistakes leading to the direction they're taking.

 

[mr magoo]

So yeah, unless i am missing something according to vgchartz XSX/S sold almost 34 m as for now, not 20. Wich is more than OG xbox 20. Wich is more than N64,GCN and wii U. Applying the logic that "The clear trend is that every generation since the 360, less people have bought an Xbox," Nintendo shouldnt exist.
NES 62m ,Snes 49m, N64 34m, GCN 22m and surprise Wii 101m to WiiU 13,5m and back again to switch 150m.

"So, any assertion that Xbox can glide to success each gen by just selling hardware to people who want to upgrade their current Xbox is shortsighted. "
Right, selling consoles to people who already own xboxes only is not the solution for sure. I dont think this is their strategy, they need to find their own Nintendo moment.

 

[see colon]

Unsure if I’m being trolled here but he was absolutely not talking about mobile gaming here lol.

He was talking about video games in general, though. Mobile gaming is just gaming on an appliance, just like console gaming is. Just like gaming on a Steam Deck is.

I think I might criticize Steam more than the average person here, but I use it every day. And I buy games from them, and I don't feel bad when I do. But the comments Gabe made in the past, criticizing Windows 8 for shipping with features that, in his view, and the views of others, looked to exclude or limit the amount of competition in the PC space.... It isn't like Valve hasn't done similar things. Steam Deck and SteamOS in particular, are not unlike Windows 8 where they ship with a single storefront that is associated with the vendor who makes/maintains the OS. Valve is one of the top producers of things people claim to hate in games - Free to play titles riddled with microtransactions. Steam is essentially DRM. It's free to use software with most of it's content locked behind a paywall. Features get removed without any option for preservation (Anyone remember parlor games?). And they effectively killed the physical games market on PC.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Hmmm, Those users are likely going to be split between Sony, Valve and Nintendo and XboxPCHybrid machine next gen

I don't think so. Only Xbox and PC will have GamePass and that's significant. If the hardware is attractive enough, MS can keep and even expand their userbase next gen.

I think some people around here think that GP is an add-on for Xbox or something. It's not. Xbox hardware is an add on for GamePass. It's the killer must of have thing for 30+ million gamers. They'll keep getting the hardware as long as GP is continually getting better, and it is.

 

[iroboto]

He was talking about video games in general, though. Mobile gaming is just gaming on an appliance, just like console gaming is. Just like gaming on a Steam Deck is.

I think I might criticize Steam more than the average person here, but I use it every day. And I buy games from them, and I don't feel bad when I do. But the comments Gabe made in the past, criticizing Windows 8 for shipping with features that, in his view, and the views of others, looked to exclude or limit the amount of competition in the PC space.... It isn't like Valve hasn't done similar things. Steam Deck and SteamOS in particular, are not unlike Windows 8 where they ship with a single storefront that is associated with the vendor who makes/maintains the OS. Valve is one of the top producers of things people claim to hate in games - Free to play titles riddled with microtransactions. Steam is essentially DRM. It's free to use software with most of it's content locked behind a paywall. Features get removed without any option for preservation (Anyone remember parlor games?). And they effectively killed the physical games market on PC.

Insightful. I wish we had a emoji for that instead of using the like button. Lol.

Yea I recall physical games on PC had these amazing and large box covers. My StarCraft boxes are amazing! Too bad as a child I was too stupid to realize that they would be worth collecting at a later age. I cut the cover off (one per race) and taped them to my wall.

 

[mr magoo]

Insightful. I wish we had a emoji for that instead of using the like button. Lol.

Yea I recall physical games on PC had these amazing and large box covers. My StarCraft boxes are amazing! Too bad as a child I was too stupid to this they would be worth collecting at a later age. I cut the cover off (one per race) and taped them to my wall.

Oh god arent we all guilty of that .... the worst thing is i have a lot of stuff that are worth lot of money now (vintage comic books , rare ps one games etc etc) that i left in my old house and i cannot find it now or i didnt take propre care of and are pretty much lost now. I hate myslef for that.

 

[tuna]

Unsure if I’m being trolled here but he was absolutely not talking about mobile gaming here lol.

Also calling Darwin ‘Unix/Linux’ was always funny to me. Yes, it’s a Unix OS technically, but that’s just the kernel which only matters on a technical level. Nobody considers iOS some sort of distant Linux distro, beyond the kernel they share no similarities and the communities overlap almost nowhere.

Linux and Darwin has nothing in common except some POSIX compatibility which a lot of other OSs/OS kernels also have.

 

[Nisaaru]

He made that final comment in 2007, the same year as the iPhone was released! Gaming is vastly on Unix/Linux, just on mobile and trapped within two app stores.

Only because there is some unix base in macos and android doesn't make them Unix/Linux.

 

[rntongo]

I don't think so. Only Xbox and PC will have GamePass and that's significant. If the hardware is attractive enough, MS can keep and even expand their userbase next gen.

I think some people around here think that GP is an add-on for Xbox or something. It's not. Xbox hardware is an add on for GamePass. It's the killer must of have thing for 30+ million gamers. They'll keep getting the hardware as long as GP is continually getting better, and it is.

If we're being honest, most people didnt/dont buy the Series consoles for gamepass. They bought it because they thought it was going to have fun games. Some ar happy some are not. I was enjoying Gamepass although it hasnt been a killer feature(in my opinion) but cancelled when they introduced a price hike because I know where that will end up. If Gamepass was the key reason for people buying Xbox this gen you'd bee seeing an increase in hw sales especially after large acquisitions like Activision. But now you see that stalled to the point that they are tracking below the Xbox One and there's a possibility Xbox wont even make hw anymore

 

[Cappuccino]

Linux and Darwin has nothing in common except some POSIX compatibility which a lot of other OSs/OS kernels also have.

Yeah that’s what people usually mean when they call it a “Unix” kernel, it’s just POSIX compliant (whatever that means lol I’ve always said this as a matter of fact but never understood what POSIX is).