Xbox 360 selling at one-third of Microsoft's goals :analysts

[Edge]

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/25/xbox360_selling_at_1-3_goals/

Microsoft's apparent strong start is largely a result of a shortage of consoles selling to the hardcore in their current base, but now that demand has been satisfied, reality has set in?

 

[Belmontvedere]

I think this reflects lack of production more than lack of demand. The bad news for M$ is that their early launch will only amount to a small lead over Sony, which almost certainly won't last once PS3 launches. If Sony ships more units, they will sell more units, simple as that.

 

[expletive]

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/25/xbox360_selling_at_1-3_goals/

I knew it. Microsoft's apparent strong start is largely a result of a shortage of consoles selling to the hardcore in their current base, but now that demand has been satisfied, reality has set in.

I dont know how you came up with that analysis. The article focuses on continuing shortages of the console, not waning demand. It also has nothing to do with the hardcore base. The only reality is that the consoles will continue to be in short supply for 90 days according to retailers.

The demand has still not been satisfied and seems it wont be for some time. That is a problem in itself but not for the reasons youve invented here.

 

[Sethamin]

Okay, first, misleading thread title. The article states that Microsft expected to sell 3 million by the end of February, but only sold 1 million by the end of the year. Your one-third estimate is your own editorializing.

Second, your comment about now that demand has been satisfied isn't supported byt he article and doesn't really seem to be supported by reality; at least in my area, you still can't find a 360 on any store shelves.

 

[msia2k75]

Anyway there are some mistakes in this article because 120.000 were sold in UK (UK is not the whole Europe) at the end of the year and it hasnt reached yet the 100.000 in Japan.

 

[Mr. Hanky]

Okay, first, misleading thread title. The article states that Microsft expected to sell 3 million by the end of February, but only sold 1 million by the end of the year.

Is MS on track for shipping 1 million each month for 3 consecutive months including Feb?

 

[expletive]

Is MS on track for shipping 1 million each month for 3 consecutive months including Feb?

I think that they were bringing a 3rd production facility online by the end of Jan so they should be in a better postiion to do so by mid-feb.

 

[Edge]

The thread title is just the article title.

You're right, the lower demand maybe a problem with manufacturing, as the 360 still cannot be bought here also.

 

[Mr. Hanky]

I think that they were bringing a 3rd production facility online by the end of Jan so they should be in a better postiion to do so by mid-feb.

Nevertheless, are the numbers showing they are on track? That was the question.

 

[Nicked]

Oh I don't know about 1/3.....depending on what they've sold in EU+NA this month, they might make 1/2+ or more of their 90-day target.

 

[expletive]

Nevertheless, are the numbers showing they are on track? That was the question.

Understood. Point i was making is that its hard to determine what theyll be able to accomplish by past performance since their capacity will be different then what its been.

Oh I don't know about 1/3.....depending on what they've sold in EU+NA this month, they might make 1/2+ or more of their 90-day target.

Hadnt they backed off the 3 million in 90days estimate and revised it to something like 5.5 million by end-June?

 

[Guden Oden]

Is the production problems really limited by the ability to solder/screw together consoles though (capacity which is relatively easy to increase) or more centered around ASIC chip production (capacity which is anything from difficult to very difficult to increase)?

 

[OtakingGX]

Don't manufacturers build up a stock of product before their initial release? If that's the case then 1M units was their production capacity over the months leading up to and during December, 2005. To hit 3M in sales they would have to be able to produce 1M consoles in a month, which doesn't seem likely if they launched and sold that many their first month.

 

[expletive]

Is the production problems really limited by the ability to solder/screw together consoles though (capacity which is relatively easy to increase) or more centered around ASIC chip production (capacity which is anything from difficult to very difficult to increase)?

Maybe not but i dont see the point of bringing up another facility, and its associated overhead, unless it was the bottleneck (even a small one).

(I suppose you could be right though and they may have been contractually obligated to bring the plant online at this time, bound to those overhead costs regardless.)

 

[Sis]

Don't manufacturers build up a stock of product before their initial release? If that's the case then 1M units was their production capacity over the months leading up to and during December, 2005. To hit 3M in sales they would have to be able to produce 1M consoles in a month, which doesn't seem likely if they launched and sold that many their first month.

Not quite true. I don't believe the factories operate at 100% efficiency from the start. So it makes it hard to extrapolate how much factories are able to output based on launch sales figures.

 

[expletive]

Don't manufacturers build up a stock of product before their initial release? If that's the case then 1M units was their production capacity over the months leading up to and during December, 2005. To hit 3M in sales they would have to be able to produce 1M consoles in a month, which doesn't seem likely if they launched and sold that many their first month.

Usually yes, but the initial shipments that arrived at stores like Best Buy havent been bigger than subsequent shipments from what ive heard. That doesnt give me the impression that there was some stockpile waiting for 11/22 in NA.

 

[Kb-Smoker]

Second, your comment about now that demand has been satisfied isn't supported byt he article and doesn't really seem to be supported by reality; at least in my area, you still can't find a 360 on any store shelves.

In japan there is VERY little demand for the xbox 360. It's selling worse than xbox1.

 

[Sis]

In japan there is VERY little demand for the xbox 360. It's selling worse than xbox1.

That's only relevant if you have information that suggests that MS came to the 3 million in 90 days estimate based on wide support in Japan. Do you have that information?

 

[AlphaWolf]

In japan there is VERY little demand for the xbox 360. It's selling worse than xbox1.

huh? they sold over 5k of xbox360s in japan last week and a hundred or so xboxs. I'm not saying its selling well, but your statement is bullshit.

I think what you meant to say is that xbox360 has sold less units in Japan in its first 2 months than xbox1 did.

 

[Kb-Smoker]

huh? they sold over 5k of xbox360s in japan last week and a hundred or so xboxs. I'm not saying its selling well, but your statement is bullshit.

I think what you meant to say is that xbox360 has sold less units in Japan in its first 2 months than xbox1 did.

Yes....That is what i meant.


Here are teh real numbers.
Media Create Sales Jan 16th - 22nd

Hardware

DS: 64,515 (210,177, total since January 1st 2006)
PSP: 38,271 (228,714)
PS2: 26,271 (146,097)
GBASP: 7,912 (35,338)
GBM: 4,653 (22,813)
GC: 4,490 (23,378)
X360: 3,616 (17,200)
GBA: 236 (1,033)
Xbox: 83 (358)

That's only relevant if you have information that suggests that MS came to the 3 million in 90 days estimate based on wide support in Japan. Do you have that information?

Yes they did say something like that. let me find it.