Alstrong said:
Acert93 said:
some of those exclusives will sell better on the PC and being console exclusive would hurt sales
which ones?
Quake has a huge PC following. It was born on the PC and was really our first introduction to 3D FPSs (I consider Duke Nuken, Doom, Wolfenstien to be Pseudo 3D FPS). Very few games on the PC sell really well... and I would expect Quake to be one of them. So being on the console only I think would hurt id/Raven sales a lot. They are one of the PC titles where you can say, "In 3 years they will have 2-5M in total sales". If they were an Xbox 360 exclusive, with such a limited install base for launch, I do not see them making up those 2-5M in sales.
Simiarly CoD2 has done really well on the PC. The recent console port kind of stunk so I am not sure how much of a bad taste lingers with gamers.
With both FPS, I do not see Xbox 360 making a dent into the PC gamer "elite" who live and die by their KB/MS. I know far too many PC gamers who ignore the consoles and would never buy a console FPS. That is not true of them all of course, but I do not see 2-5M PC gamers getting an Xbox 360 just for a single game. MS will be lucky to get 3M consoles out the door this fall in total, so I don't see how the Xbox Launch could provide enough console units to make a big enough platform.
Elder Scrolls IV is maybe another one. I am not sure how big the PC following is (not an RPG gamer) but I know it is fairly popular.
Overall launch titles get passed up in the 2nd year by games that had a longer development time and had access to the real hardware longer to make things look better and play better. Basically Launch titles pave the way for everything else. There are the exceptions (like a Mario 64), but usually 2nd and 3rd gen games pass up launch titles in quality AND since they are "new" they appeal to the larger install base.
Actually a lot of launch titles get the short enf of the sales stick. So a hot PC titles like Elder Scrolls, CoD2, or Quake may sell more titles on the PC than the total install base of Xbox 360s come the end of 2005.
I think the story changes a little when you have an install base of 30-50M consoles or more. Exclusives can mean solid game sales... but MS does not want to kill the PC (and never has sold that many consoles!) so I do not see that as an issue.