Xbox 2 in 2006?

[Josiah]

hope this hasn't been posted already...

http://www.gamepro.com/gamepro/domestic/games/news/29841.shtml

18-JUN-03
At a conference in Redmond, Washington devoted to the future of information-technology investment, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer admitted that the Xbox is "having trouble" in Japan but expressed confidence that the system's fortunes would turn around by the time its successor, the so-called Xbox 2, is launched in the year 2006. Ballmer also said that his company has no intention of buying a majority stake in Sega, putting an apparent end to one of the game industry's most pervasive buyout rumors.

Originally launched November 2001 in the U.S. and February 2002 in Japan, the Xbox "has gained the number-two spot" worldwide over Nintendo's GameCube, according to Ballmer. However, the system is a distant third in Japan, a virtual no-name compared to the Cube and Sony's PS2 system. While calling the situation in Japan "a difficult one," Ballmer reminded attendees of Microsoft's trademark tenacity: "Our company is a patient one that looks at matters in the long term... We will develop and provide new products and services to appeal to [Japanese] consumers." Ballmer also stated that the next-generation Xbox is slated to launch in Japan by 2006, making a U.S. launch in 2005 is a distinct possibility.

 

[Deepak]

Originally launched November 2001 in the U.S. and February 2002 in Japan, the Xbox "has gained the number-two spot" worldwide over Nintendo's GameCube, according to Ballmer. However, the system is a distant third in Japan, a virtual no-name compared to the Cube and Sony's PS2 system. While calling the situation in Japan "a difficult one," Ballmer reminded attendees of Microsoft's trademark tenacity: "Our company is a patient one that looks at matters in the long term... We will develop and provide new products and services to appeal to [Japanese] consumers." Ballmer also stated that the next-generation Xbox is slated to launch in Japan by 2006, making a U.S. launch in 2005 is a distinct possibility.

 

[zidane1strife]

2007

 

[Brimstone]

http://news.com.com/2100-1043_3-1019181.html?tag=fd_top

update A Japanese newspaper on Friday retracted statements attributed to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer regarding a new version of the Xbox.

 

[Josiah]

very interesting

Speculation on the arrival of next-generation consoles had been particularly brisk recently, including signs that Microsoft may switch suppliers for the most expensive part of the Xbox, the graphics processor. Nvidia supplies the graphics chip for the current Xbox, but rival ATI Technologies has said it would like to participate in the next generation.

Michael McConnell, an analyst for Pacific Crest Securities, said ATI is likely to win, due partly to lack of interest from Nvidia, which endured months of messy contract arbitration and inventory headaches last year because of the Microsoft contract.

"Nvidia has really given a lot of signals...that they're trying to distance themselves from Xbox2," McConnell said. "That relationship has really soured over the last year...Microsoft in general is just not a very nice partner to deal with. I think the whole experience left Nvidia with a bad taste in their mouth."

 

[Brimstone]

very interesting

Speculation on the arrival of next-generation consoles had been particularly brisk recently, including signs that Microsoft may switch suppliers for the most expensive part of the Xbox, the graphics processor. Nvidia supplies the graphics chip for the current Xbox, but rival ATI Technologies has said it would like to participate in the next generation.

Michael McConnell, an analyst for Pacific Crest Securities, said ATI is likely to win, due partly to lack of interest from Nvidia, which endured months of messy contract arbitration and inventory headaches last year because of the Microsoft contract.

"Nvidia has really given a lot of signals...that they're trying to distance themselves from Xbox2," McConnell said. "That relationship has really soured over the last year...Microsoft in general is just not a very nice partner to deal with. I think the whole experience left Nvidia with a bad taste in their mouth."

Nvidia not wanting a X-Box 2 contract is fine as long as they have some way to get the same amount of revenue following a different path. I don't see what else Nvidia could do to replace the revenue from a X-Box 2 contract unless they partner with Nintendo or Sony. I doubt that is going to happen.

All companies have to deal with some customers they don't get along with 100% of the time. Investors don't care if people at Nvidia don't like Microsoft, they just want to see growth in profit and revenue so the value of the company increases. If Nvidia doesn't get the contract and then doesn't release some great strategy to leverage its technology in other area's a few things might happen. Stock price decline and the laying off of staff at Nvidia. The pressure is on Nvidia to worry about the contract not Microsoft because they seem to some alternitives. I'm sure Microsoft would want Nvidia as a first choice though. Nvidia makes more sense then any other choice as long as the price is right.

 

[Josiah]

Nvidia not wanting a X-Box 2 contract is fine as long as they have some way to get the same amount of revenue following a different path. I don't see what else Nvidia could do to replace the revenue from a X-Box 2 contract unless they partner with Nintendo or Sony. I doubt that is going to happen.

All companies have to deal with some customers they don't get along with 100% of the time. Investors don't care if people at Nvidia don't like Microsoft, they just want to see growth in profit and revenue so the value of the company increases. If Nvidia doesn't get the contract and then doesn't release some great strategy to leverage its technology in other area's a few things might happen. Stock price decline and the laying off of staff at Nvidia. The pressure is on Nvidia to worry about the contract not Microsoft because they seem to some alternitives. I'm sure Microsoft would want Nvidia as a first choice though. Nvidia makes more sense then any other choice as long as the price is right.

The point is, Nvidia doesn't seem to even want to be involved with XB2. X-Box has not been a tremendously profitable venture for them, it only accounts for about 10% of their revenue. Right now they're selling all the FX chips they make, they can't even make enough to meet demand. If the resources they spend manufacturing X-Box hardware were instead devoted to, say, making 5600 chips they would be making alot more money right now...

 

[nondescript]

Nvidia not wanting a X-Box 2 contract is fine as long as they have some way to get the same amount of revenue following a different path. I don't see what else Nvidia could do to replace the revenue from a X-Box 2 contract unless they partner with Nintendo or Sony. I doubt that is going to happen.

Right now they're selling all the FX chips they make, they can't even make enough to meet demand.

This is a little confusing...since Nvidia is fabless, and outsource to TSMC/IBM, shouldn't they be able to ramp up or ramp down production as necessary? My guess is Nvidia is much more flexible in terms of production volume. They don't have production lines that have to justify their operating cost - so they aren't as revenue dependent.

While I do believe that Nvidia will get Xbox2 in the end, I think the final contract will be more favourable to Nvidia this time around - Nvidia can afford to walk way.

 

[chaphack]

Ballmer also stated that the next-generation Xbox is slated to launch in Japan by 2006, making a U.S. launch in 2005 is a distinct possibility.

That what me speculate too. Always had. +1 chap.
Late holidays(sep-dec) 2005 US, early(feb-april) 2006 Japan for Xbox2.
Early(feb-april) 2006 Japan PS3 and late holidays(sep-dec 2006/early 2007) US.

1 year headstart against PS3 in US.
Head to head PS3 in Japan.

Sony better not screw up Cell production and allow MS more head way.

 

[Vince]

1 year headstart against PS3 in US.
Head to head PS3 in Japan.

Sony better not screw up Cell production and allow MS more head way.

You need to put down whatever you're smoking and take a breath of reality. You really think PS3 is going to launch on 2006 or later? You're in a dream world - STI/Austin is basically done (before MS has anything) with the Cell architecture - the architects are moving on. The only thing limiting the PS3 varients is the process technology - and Toshiba (at Oita) and SCE (at Nagasaki) will be ready to roll @ 65nm in ~ 2H 2004/1H 2005.

STI/Austin has already been hiring people to work on high-level application/program demonstration design. Kutaragi himself just stated that Cell's on time, on task.

Shouldn't you be more worried about Microsoft and the "floating" specification that they're giving to IHVs than the STI partners who are so far down the pipeline? Talk about a prelude to disaster ("floating" spec)... can't wait untill the feature-creep sets in...

 

[chaphack]

We shall see....we shall see
I have my sources.

 

[Vince]

We shall see....we shall see
I have my sources.

No you don't.

 

[chaphack]

Let us keep in remembrance this topic 2~3 years down the road.

 

[Vince]

Let us keep in remembrance this topic 2~3 years down the road.

Be too busy playing on my PS3.

PS. You stated 2H2006 / 1H2007, that's ~3-4 years.

 

[chaphack]

Okay medearest, fine with me. Oh, dont you mean PSP?
Let us wait and prepare for the final verdict mmkay?

 

[Vince]

Okay medearest, fine with me. Oh, dont you mean PSP?

No, thats a year before:

Gamasutra.com[/url]][06.17.03] Sony Reaffirms Late 2004 Launch For PSP

Sony has confirmed that the PSP, the company's upcoming handheld game device, will be released sometime during the second half of 2004.

Chris Deering, president of SCEE, said today that the company is on track for a simultaneous global release of the PSP next year.

So, what else did you hear from Sp0ng.com... err... your "sources" that you wish to share?

 

[chaphack]

Okay, need to make meself clearer.

I expect PS3 to be 2H2006 if things are fine. Should they be a delay of somewhat(knocky wood), it be push back 1H2007. 2003 - 2006 is 3 years, rounding off. So 2~3 years will be 2005 and 2006. We shall see by that time whos THE One.

As for PSP, i know it be out 2H2004, always have since E3. My PSP comment was for PS3 2006(since PSP will keep you occupy 2 years later).

 

[Vince]

Okay, need to make meself clearer.

Good call.

I expect PS3 to be 2H2006 if things are fine.

But your "sources" appearently tell you otherwise....

2003 - 2006 is 3 years, rounding off.

Lets be specific, might as well make this unescapable for the wrong party:

2H2003 -> 2H2004 = 1 year to PSP //possible cell debut

2H2004 -> 2H2005 = 2 years untill my [Vince] introduction window

2H2005 -> 2H2006 = 3 years untill Chaps "optimistic" window

2H2006 -> 1H2007 = 3.5/3.75 years untill Chaps "knock on wood" window

Agree?

 

[chaphack]

Okay, lets knock off the how many years thing and go direct.

Based on my revised source, barring delays, ignore previous complication:

Xbox2
Q2 2006 NTSC J
Q4 2005 NTSC U/C
Q4 2006 PAL

PS3
Q2 2006 NTSC J
Q4 2006 NTSC U/C
Q2 2007 PAL

FINAL.

 

[Vince]

Whoa, you've had your "source" revised at this time of day? Hot damn.