X-Box 2 Speculation!

[jvd]

First u didn't say that . Second how much do you think the cell chip will go down ? i bet u anything the only thing the cell chip will be used in is the ps3 at that point . Its just not magicly going to drop in price . Ms can also take the hit too. We also have no clue how much of a hit a cell chip would take with out adding more ram to it , it may actaulyl end up slowing the chip down relative to how it was before. Unless they increase the ram which would make it more expensive , increasing die size and more chances for the ram to not work and rendering the chip useless

First you need to read more carefully, I did say that above.

"If Xbox2 gets a head start against PS3, Sony will just throw in another Cell or do what they gotta do to give it the edge against Xbox2."

Head start meaning Xbox2 coming out 6-8 months before ps3. In that time, if Xbox2 is more powerfull than sony expected and does indeed beat their current ps3 specs. Then sony will increase the power of ps3 somehow, either by increasing the rasterizer, or maybe even throwing another cell in.

In 6-8 months the price on a Cell would go down, even if it didn't Sony would just have to take the hit associated with it, becase they would get it back later.

yes your right i'm sorry i read that wrong

Still though 6-8 months the designs are most likely finalized. Just throwing another cell chip in there will almost be like them throwing in the second sh-2 (i think its an sh-2) into the saturn . Just throwing more into it isn't allways the best. At the most they may squeeze some more mhz out of the cell and gs 2 they have in there .

 

[Panajev2001a]

Just throwing another cell chip in there will
almost be like them throwing in the second sh-2 (i think its an sh-2) into the saturn

I disagree... aside from bandwidth considerations ( with the Yellowstone DRAM which would be shared I'd guess ) would be quite different from adding a second SH-4...

HW wise Cell was designed to be MODULAR and to scale with higher or lower number of Cells ( read PEs ) to fit the power/performance requirements of the target platform...

Software wise, I'd expect the OS and high-level libraries to be developed with the scalability and modularity of Cell in mind and abstract from the programmer details such as numbers of PEs in the Broadband Engine for example ( it is a detail that the programmer could live without... of course he could one day need it to optimize the code better, but I do not expect many PlayStation 3 developers to rush to the metal, nor do I see Sony pushing developers to do so... all the contrary... ).

I'd think Sony, IBM and Toshiba's guys know better than making the Cell OS and the Libraries too integrated with the actual HW requiring a total redesign of the OS or the APIs... I'd expect them to have layers that take care of this: maybe there is only one layer that has to be optimized for the exact HW configuration and the layers above it do not need to know those specific details...

Think at Windows or example: there are versions that support up to 8 processors IIRC... well think about your initial configuration having 2 processors ( note: you are already writing multi-threaded applications )... then you see the competitor with a better PC and you decide to throw in other two CPUs...

Guess what, the OS will not break nor should your programs

The Saturn was diferent... it was not built with the second processor in mind, it was not built to use a SMP configuration and this was reflected in its OS and its libraries and this is what affected negatively the programming ease or lack of thereof...

 

[Brimstone]

I don't think Sony would have much problem added more Cell Chips. Sony probably has several versions of the PS 3 in the works. Just prototypes to keep their options open, and once they get nearer to manufacturing they'll decide on one.

 

[jvd]

I don't think Sony would have much problem added more Cell Chips. Sony probably has several versions of the PS 3 in the works. Just prototypes to keep their options open, and once they get nearer to manufacturing they'll decide on one.

Mabye , then again ms could have a few xbox2s in the works... i really want to see what nintendo comes up with this time , mabye they will come out with the most powerfull hardware

 

[_phil_]

Cell tech will certainly reach markets before Ps3 ,so i guess the ps3's power/price ratio will be relative to Cell's success to drive costs down.

 

[jvd]

Cell tech will certainly reach markets before Ps3 ,so i guess the ps3's power/price ratio will be relative to Cell's success to drive costs down.

we know anything that cell is going to be besides the ps3 ? i'd like to read up on them if u do. Also which versions of the chip will be used ?

 

[V3]

we know anything that cell is going to be besides the ps3 ? i'd like to read up on them if u do. Also which versions of the chip will be used ?

Well, Sony might include PS3 in all their Blue-Ray product, or in all their consumer products that connects to your TV sets. Like how MS includes Internet Explorer with Windows, Sony might do that with PS3.

 

[jvd]

we know anything that cell is going to be besides the ps3 ? i'd like to read up on them if u do. Also which versions of the chip will be used ?

Well, Sony might include PS3 in all their Blue-Ray product, or in all their consumer products that connects to your TV sets. Like how MS includes Internet Explorer with Windows, Sony might do that with PS3.

Okay but nothings been anounced right ? And the cell chips in your stero or tv will be diffrent (in terms of how many cells are on the die) than the one in the ps3 most like correct ?

 

[V3]

Nothing been announced. Except, in PDA it might used only one Processor Element.

Though Kutaragi and co have said that PS3 might get eaten up into other consumer appliances. Who knows, what they meant by that. Maybe in the future, you can link up your toaster, fridge, washer, TV and Blue Ray player, to have enough Processor Elements so it can run PS3 game

 

[Almasy]

Mabye , then again ms could have a few xbox2s in the works... i really want to see what nintendo comes up with this time , mabye they will come out with the most powerfull hardware

Fat chance in hell. Nintendo has always gone for the cheaper route and this kind of hardware MS and Sony will be producing will be anything but.

 

[cybamerc]

Almasy:

> Nintendo has always gone for the cheaper route

Cheaper does not mean worse. The N64, although flawed, was the most powerful system of its generation and the SNES was certainly able to pump out better graphics and sound than the Genesis/Mega Drive.

 

[Almasy]

Cheaper does not mean worse. The N64, although flawed, was the most powerful system of its generation and the SNES was certainly able to pump out better graphics and sound than the Genesis/Mega Drive.

But MegaDrive/Genesis was released in 1989, and SNS in 1991/2 (can´t remember). One could have expected something greater after two years of technological evolution.

N64 is the exception, though. I may be wrong, but I´ve heard mention of PC graphics card running circles around it in 1996, the year it was released.

I´m only talking about the present circumstances, though. I mean, Sony and MS are going to be selling their systems at a loss, and judging from thier recent "safe" business strategies, its more than likely that Nintendo, if they decide to launch their system along with PS3 and Xbox2, will launch an weaker system, hoping that their arguably superior software will push them ahead.

 

[Tahir2]

N64 is the exception, though. I may be wrong, but I´ve heard mention of PC graphics card running circles around it in 1996, the year it was released.

You heard wrong.

 

[Almasy]

You heard wrong.

I did say I only heard.

What graphics card was out in 1996, though?

 

[Tahir2]

Mega Drive was released on October 29th 1988 [in Japan]

[Super Famicom] 21st November 1990 in Japan

1996 - Matrox Mystique, before the Riva128

Some history on SIGGRAPH in 1996.

http://www.v-site.net/siggraph-ne/nov6meet.html

 

[Vince]

Not just Toy Story, but Hollywood quality effects, 50X the DC, technologically supreme for 6-8 years, polygons are useless, supernode for entertainment network, all words from Sony themselves.

Time to link us Chappers. Lets see some tangible proof... time for you to put up or shut up. And just maybe, maybe stop adding an icon to every damn sentance.

Going by what the expert Mr Randy Orton said

As I already stated Chap, his name is Dave Orton.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Vince... I cannot stand your ignoranced one moment longer...

Didn't you know Dave Orton was replaced by this guy, Randy Orton ( Google will be your friend, about this Randy Orton... ):

he is a WWE guy ( wrestling )

 

[Dural]

Good point, but the codec will only be accepted as a new industry standard if widespread adoption is guaranteed. That rules out such exclusivity, especially considering the massive share Sony have of the standalone DVD player market.

MuFu.

I was really thinking that the standalone players wouldn't exactly be widespread by the time Xbox2 was released.

I think HD-DVD technology will have a big impact on the next console race.

The format war will spread to this part of the hardware aswell.

The PS3 and Xbox 2 are sure to use different competiting HD-DVD technologies.

This will be another element that draws distinction between the two machines.

I always believed that Blu-Ray was an essential part of the PS3.

I'm not so sure if Microsoft will be prepared to include a similiar hardware in the Xbox2. They cut back the DVD functionality on the Xbox1. It is an area where the cost/benefit argument has very little value to gamers. They want a games console not a DVD player.

Because comsumer electronics are a big part of Sony's business, they have a vested interest to support their own formats. The success of Blu-Ray would be a big pay day for Sony.

The two burning questions for me are:

1.Will Xbox 2 be backwards compatible?
2.Will Xbox 2 include a HD-DVD device?

I think no to both. Backwards compatibility would be a fudge, using emulation? HD-DVD adds too much to the cost of the hardware with very little gain.

Using the WM9 codec for HD-DVD on the Xbox2 wouldn't add anything to the cost as the hardware to run it will already be in the system. Right now it takes a 3ghz P4 to run movies at 1080p and the videocards being released this fall are supposed to have hardware acceleration for WM9. Blue laser tech isn't needed for it due to how good the compression is, though the increased storage would be great for extras and other things.

 

[Nick Laslett]

I think HD-DVD technology will have a big impact on the next console race.

The format war will spread to this part of the hardware aswell.

The PS3 and Xbox 2 are sure to use different competiting HD-DVD technologies.

This will be another element that draws distinction between the two machines.

The two burning questions for me are:

1.Will Xbox 2 be backwards compatible?
2.Will Xbox 2 include a HD-DVD device?

I think no to both. Backwards compatibility would be a fudge, using emulation? HD-DVD adds too much to the cost of the hardware with very little gain.

Using the WM9 codec for HD-DVD on the Xbox2 wouldn't add anything to the cost as the hardware to run it will already be in the system. Right now it takes a 3ghz P4 to run movies at 1080p and the videocards being released this fall are supposed to have hardware acceleration for WM9. Blue laser tech isn't needed for it due to how good the compression is, though the increased storage would be great for extras and other things.

Are you saying that the Xbox 2 won't need a HD-DVD player because it will use the WM9 codec with a standard DVDs?

This is what I mean by format war. The Blu-Ray group led by Sony will not adopt the WM9 codec, they will stick with Mpeg2, for now.

Microsoft are trying to get the DVD-Forum to adopt the WM9 codec for HD-DVD. The Blu-Ray group have already opted out of the DVD-Forum.

So the conslusion I drew was that the Xbox2 was likely to have a different non-compatible HD-DVD format to the PS2, which would use Blu-Ray.

Hence my comment about this being another difference between the two systems. This could be as important as graphics capabilities, etc; when it comes to purchasing decisions of the mass market.

 

[Lazy8s]

rabidrabbit:

Looks like Nintendo and Sega (with DC) (Edit: and of course MicroSoft with that robot-girl demo ) have been the worst hypers, and not delivering what promised with the final hardware.

SEGA's claim for DC when it was announced in early 1998 was something like:

"Can sustain 3 million polygons per second. Outpowers all within the console realm and most in the arcade space."

Let's see... How specifically does that make them "the worst hyper", and how did they fail to deliver the promises with the final hardware?

I think that might have been the first time in history when a PR actually underrated their product. The 3 million polys/sec spec was provided from the in-game, real-time performance devs like Tecmo (with Dead or Alive 2 on Naomi) and SEGA AM2 (with the Shenmue engine) were already getting on the projects started before launch. The DC also unquestionably did outpower the next best console at the time, the N64. The arcade DC, Naomi, was the top board at its release, and SEGA still conservatively promoted it as outpowering "most" within the space.

Their tech demos truly did run on DC hardware. In fact, it was on unfinished, less powerful versions of DC hardware. Some of the tech demonstrations were examples of the technologies being worked on in the games, an example being the Irimajiri head demo shown below. It came from the face capturing tech AM2 was working on to create all the residents of the Shenmue world:

They did a quick and dirty scan and conversion of Presient Irimijari's face so that the attendees of the conference could get an idea of how the DC tech handled lights, effects, and details.

The actual DC launch games like Pen Pen Triicelon and the soon-to-follow Sonic Adventure stomped their tech demos completely.

Here's another DC tech demo showing some of the hardware features of PowerVR:

The only thing misleading about SEGA's "hype" campaign is that it actually set expectations too low! The final products far surpassed their "hype".

Their PR wasn't hype at all... it was forthcomingness in its most humble and conservative form.

Now, consider Nintendo. They claimed:
"6-12 million polys/sec with full effects"

How is that overhype by any stretch of the imagination, especially when you said they and SEGA were far worse than the others as far as hype!?

GC launch titles even achieved and surpassed their "hype" specs. Nintendo was conservative! Besides the DC, that's practically unheard of in videogame PR.

While Nintendo and SEGA reported ultra-conservative hype partly to avoid getting into a spec war with rivals who were electronics companies, I think they also had enormous confidence in their world-class first-party development to let their games do most of the talking.