frenchtoast:
Here's the thing: what concerns me most about predicting the hardware power here is the ultimate TDP and cooling solution, and until IBM comes out and says otherwise, I'm strongly in the 45nm camp (not that 32nm fab capacity appears to be in abundance, so it's not a good sign there) for launch. Also, until TSMC shows ungodly ability to expand their 28nm operations, 40nm is what the GPU will be for the near future (besides, it's just simply going to be a lot cheaper for Nintendo).
As an aside, if IBM is having a hand in the GPU fabrication, then 45nm SOI it is (ala 360S design). Either way, we're not looking at 28nm/32nm, so comparing to Llano isn't going to be relevant.
We know that the small case is going to limit the cooling ability no matter what, plus I would be quite disappointed if Nintendo opted for an over 9000RPM turbine just to satiate any supposed beast underneath...
They're probably not looking at nearly the same TDP as the 360S SoP, which is probably in the ballpark of 70W (after subtracting the drives and RAM chips from load power consumption of the console unit). Even if the WiiU could dissipate 70W of heat power (it'll be quite noisy), you'd have to divy that up between the CPU and GPU. So then you'd probably be looking at a 40nm GPU from AMD that is in the range of 40-50W TDP.*
You can see that the 5570 series kind of fits (with some headroom for clock tweaks around 650MHz) within that TDP range. That's pretty much where the 400ALU idea came from. Mind you, it's already in the 600M+ transistor area.
*I think a lot of folks misunderstood the GI/DF article when it compared case size as a measure of computing/graphical power. It just gives a rough idea of the heat dissipation requirements (whilst keeping noise in mind), and then you can begin to look at what's currently available on 40nm that could fit somewhat closely. Ultimately, it is just a rough guess since there are the customizations to architecture that will give different perf/watt plus there's the supposed edram.... I mean, you'd probably have different ALU/ROP/TMU counts and clocks there.
Ok, now I will cease crushing Wii U fans dreams. See Al, you don't need to go godZILLA on everyone's hopes. Maybe you should just change your name to, urhmmm, I dunno, AlZilla?
Well, I have my STRONG concerns. I apologize for sounding [strike]harsh[/strike]STRONG.
rwar