Any idea how long until something like the Ouya matches Durango on specs? 10 years?
Well, in the GFXbench T-Rex 1080p offscreen, Shield with
Tegra 4 does 18 FPS whereas the
HD7770 does about 300 FPS.
Tegra 6/Parker is supposed to be 10x faster than Tegra 4.. so let's say 180 FPS for Tegra 6, coming in 2015:
That said, I guess the next Tegra after Parker might be awfully close to the xbone. It should take 2, or at most 3 generations of Tegra/Exynos/Snapdragon after 2015's Parker to have something that is clearly more powerful than the xbone.
So we're probably a lot closer than 10 years to having an Ouya-like device that's more powerful than the xbone. I'd say 5 years, 6 years tops.
We have to keep in mind that unlike the x360 in its time, the xbone has the hardware equivalent of a PC with a mid-end CPU and a $100 dedicated graphics card. It's only natural that the mobile SoCs will be much faster at catching up this time.
Then again, at ~10nm (with the SoCs going down to about 100mm^2?) the xbone/ps4's SoC should become rather cheap to make since they won't be large anymore and the rather low clocks might result in great yields, so I think we can expect the next-gens to go down in price a lot faster than last time.
By then, the price difference between an OUYA and the xbone/ps4 may amount to be little more than the peripherals, optical drive and external RAM (assuming it doesn't become stacked over the console's SoC eventually).