Can you elaborate more on this and the games?
You mean remakes or ports of games that were available abd succesful on other consoles?
Wii Sales: Less Than Meets the Eye
- Thread starter fearsomepirate
- Start date
Can you elaborate more on this and the games?
You mean remakes or ports of games that were available abd succesful on other consoles?
I'm talking about any game released on Wii. What I'm saying is the games currently on Wii, and most of the games currently announced, were started/planned well before Wii was released. So its false logic IMO to look at Wii's sales and say 'Wii is selling extremely well yet that isn't helping it get good games'. Because none of those developers had much of a clue that Wii would sell this well when these games were started.
IMO we won't really start to see the effect of Wii's excellent sales on its game library until next year.
Even if they were planned before Wii how does this fact change the initial point? Also how do you know which were planned and which were not planned before Wii was released?
Also you ignore the possibility that these not so great games you mentioned probably sell well and that changes the developers' motives. What you described about developers not expecting Wii to do well initially, thus they will eventually support it due to its sales, doesnt quarantee better games if they know thet will sell well regardless of quality. The only thing it quarantees for sure is more support and more games that sell and what sells isnt always a quality game.
I agree that the future will give a clearer picture and I am sure it will get more good games yet I have every good reason to have such worries.
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The Wii is only out six months, and it's only since January or so that its sales success has become obvious. You can't develop substantial games in six, let alone four months. If game projects were started in reaction to the Wii's strong hardware sales, it will take at least until next year until these projects appear, because that's your minimum time it takes to develop a "real" game (!= one of the widely loathed mini-game collections).
Few developers were optimistic about the Wii. Ubisoft was (Red Steel, Rayman Raving Rabbids), and they were quite successful. But that's the exception, as most other third parties have been too cautious about the Wii, in hindsight. You'll see that there are very few third-party games out now, and that should tell you something, because if substantial projects had been in the making, a few should have been coming out already. But the truth is that third parties are just starting their projects now, after seeing the strong hardware sales.
The "not-so-great games", and I'm thinking about mini-game-heavy titles, simple party games, trivia, training etc, are cheap and quick to make. They are a plausible panic reaction by publishers that have been surprised by the runaway success of the hardware and wanted to get onto the train as fast as possible. Larger, more nutritous games aren't inherently less profitable though, they just take a while longer to ramp up, and that's what we're (not) seeing now IMO.Nesh said:
People seem to refer to the fact that it's been out only for six months and ignore that it has reached closely to 7 million sales which means extraordinary "unreal" userbase size to sell games on it. There is no linear relation between making great games to sell and hardware sales. Since the console has such a huge extraordinary demand there is a possibility there is a certain point where games surpass estimated software sales regardless of quality due to the extreme numbers of userbase. Notice that I am giving emphasis to software sales here.
Also the maority of games that come simultaneously on both consoles show extreme lack of dedication on Wii still compared to the other consoles. Note that these games were announced around the same time frame on all platforms. Why the lack of dedication on Wii and more dedication on PS3 and 360? This is worryingsome because it could be an indication that developers dont feel that they have to put the approrpiate work to sell on Wii: On 360 and PS3 due to the more limited userbase, high cost of production, console price and high next gen expectations there are more competitive pressures and need to put more effort on their games in order to stand out and sell enough and bring ebough revenues. Wii probably doesnt have this to offer the motive. I hope thats not true
Lastly and most importantly you keep mentioning curret games and forget and ignore future Wii games compared to that planned for 360 or PS3. 360 and PS3 at the same time frame of six months they were getting more impressive and bigger project announcments while Wii's biggest games still lack comparatively even now that developers are jumping in.
I check previews and announcments and I am pissed by develper's efforts. Umbrella cronicles was one of the most aticipated projects. It ended up as a action shooter on rails with some extra freedom. Other aticipated future projects still include remakes, rehashes, small party and puzzle game projects.
Nintendo is probably the only one who quarantees big projects on the console. The others not so much
I am having hopes on Nights2 although visually I am completely dissapointed with it which continues to show the lack of effort. Gameplay I hope is not another example of simple implementation of the controller.
One last point is that Wii unlike PS3 and 360 is extremely cheap to develp for and much easier. So even if developers came a ittle late, that should have compensated. It hasnt compensated and I was expecting this "luxury" of not having to deal with "technology" would have shown much more on future projects.
Paradoxically even the 6 month less demanded hard to develp for PS3 seems to get more promising future and current ptojects
Oh,cmon.
There is half year of events, before they will move mayor resources for the wii.
And from the other side, the major part of the dev groups will free up on/after the summer,and the final decission about the next project that will have to do by them will be done at that time.
There is half year of events, before they will move mayor resources for the wii.
And from the other side, the major part of the dev groups will free up on/after the summer,and the final decission about the next project that will have to do by them will be done at that time.
Yes it does, unless your point is completely different to what I think it is. Its fairly obvious, titles currently released were planned before release. Titles out within the next 6 months to a year were either planned before before, near release or are quick cash ins on the huge success (jumping on the band wagon with a quick game while the more substantial games are ramped up).
That's baseless conjecture and could be applied to any console that sells well. Plenty of poor games will have sold very well on PS2 simply before of its large userbase. But in the end more games means more good games, perhaps more bad games as well, but that's immaterial.
How long do you think it takes a make a game?.. Simply because Wii is easier to develop for that doesn't mean good games can be developers for it in a couple of months.. Statements like "Wii is easier to develop for so even if developers came a ittle late, that should have compensated. It hasnt compensated" are totally misguided IMO.
You just cannot make the kind of comparisons and judgements your making this close to release. Games, especially good games, take at least over a year to make. The games we're seeing now are a:- games that were developers or mostly developed before Wii's release or b:- quick cash in games from developers trying to get some games out as quickly as possible on what they have now realised is going to be a extremely popular console. You're simply assuming that developers aren't working on better titles and that for some crazy reason Wii will be the first console were developers will simply be happy to release quick crappy games for the entire of its lifespan. Even crazier that Wii's userbase will be happy with that for the entire of its lifespan.
The fact that you don't understand why PS3 currently has a better release schedule then Wii is again down to this idea that developers can react instantly to demand. PS3 was expected to do much better then Wii, therefore before release and even at release it will have had far more developer support. It takes time for developers to shift resources to another platform.
Come back to this discussion a year from today. If the situation is the same, Wii selling great and a poor selection of released/announced games, then you'll have a point.
Its far from being misguided, since developers seem to continue that trend even after the Wii has proven a success and already sell the games that you claim werent that good because they werent expecting Wii to be succesfull.
Also you keep ignoring serious parts:
PS3 is still getting NEW (magic word) high profile announcements. Announcements that came AFTER the console was released and showed how it is doing in the market.
Wii is STILL getting the same kind of games. So yeah ofcourse its b:"quick cash in games from developers trying to get some games out as quickly as possible on what they have now realised is going to be a extremely popular console."
Which is exatly what I ve been saying.
Are you trying to say that it is so hard for a developer to announce a big project for the Wii while they are still making these games? Is it impossible for a developer to start a huge project that will sell even more later? If they are announcing huge projects for the other two and still make games on Wii they can as well announce huge projects for Wii and still make these cash in games for Wii.
As for putting words in my mouth that the console will NEVER get good games read what I said earlier:
Which clearly shows I never stated such a thing.
Also you ignore a ton of other things I mentioned and you get stuck on the same arguement over and over again even after I bring them up supporting evidence of that probability.
Lastly: Your complaining because I have mentioned a possibility which does have a point
The problem is you are taking that possibility stated by me as if I am using it as a fact that will happen 100% guaranteed or perhaps you are just annoyied by the fact that someone brings up that possibility. All the things you mentioned do have a point yet there are other factors at the same time you dont want to hear that probably might not let things changed.
Wii is different not as a product but as a performer in the market which makes it even more interesting as well. Trying to judge it just like how every other console has performed historically which is what you are doing may lead to ignore some important factors and possibilities because it doesnt seem to work exactly the same way. The only thing I do is to see beyond what was shown hustorically with other consoles. But it seems that you annoyied by someone's effort to see things in a different way than you do and want.
Unlike you I am not rulling out your possibility. I only bring another one. You on the other hand COMPLETELY rule out the other possibility
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Again, what do hardware sales have to do with with the fact that the Wii is only 6 months old? No one in their right mind thought the Wii would sell this well. In fact, if you go back to threads around E3 last season, people were prognosticating the demise of the Wii and Nintendo. Analysts, developers, and gamers alike. Thus, no developer other than the rare gem like Ubisoft would've dared allocate major resources to the Wii.
No developer would have started to shift resources to the Wii until a few months ago when the sales trend became too large to ignore. You won't see 3rd party developers jumping on the Wii bandwagon en masse until Q1 of next year in terms of released games most likely, but I bet you see a storm of announcements at E3.
If not, Nintendo is in big trouble.
Do you honestly believe that developers would scrap a title that's been in development for 6+ months just because the PS3 is selling poorly? No. They'll finish the title because it is a sunk cost at this point. Better to get it on the market, hope it sells, and then redirect resources to the consoles that are selling well, i.e. Wii.
That is what we've been seeing to date in various news articles that have been coming out over the past couple of months.
Most developers announce games once they're already several months into development. Art work for example takes a while to deliver, which then needs to be converted into assets.
The Wii's dominating sales picture didn't really come into full clarity until a few months ago. Even in January most people were saying it was a fluke, and that the Wii couldn't possibly continue this torrid sales pace. And then it was "Europe will save the PS3!!!"
If developers hopped on the bandwagon back in January/February, they've only now got enough assets to be able to announce something. But at this point, better to make a splash at E3.
During last E3 I remember the PS3 getting criticized by the media with not so many people in its booth and Wii getting the most people in booth with the media highlighting the huge interest. Even CNN talked about how impressive was MS's and Nintendo's appearance with PS3 criticized for lack of impressive games and not so many people joining their booth.
http://www.gamecriticsawards.com/win.html
Best of Show
Wii
(Nintendo)
Since it surpassed the natural expectation of sales, by a huge difference, developers can sell more of these "quick works" than estimated in the period of six months.
The trend of interest isnt reduced at all for the console even if the console continues to get these rashed out games that were planned a long time ago. It is still out of stock! These games havent reduced any interest for the Wii. People are excited with Wii and still play what it has--->"I am a dev. This tells me something"
Edit: This is an extremely simplistic represetnation of how I see developers' motives move
If I were a developer and wanted to maximize profit, and demand exceeded the "natural" size due to extremely more potential consumers available in such a small limited period of time (only 6 months after launch with 7+ million users!), I start seeing less reasons to increase costs for a huge project and more reasons to produce a satisfactory game that I am sure it will sell anyways. I can sell more than would have been naturally estimated on a 6 month console/
If Nintendo is going to be in big trouble if huge projects arent announced it is relative. It depends on what games sell on the console (thast why I want software sales), which depends highly on the demographic and if games sell enough on the console without needing huge budgets and high valued projects.
If a game sells just because it is simply good there wll be more motives towards making simply "good" games and nintendo wont be in trouble.
Nintendo gets Dragon Quest, Resident Evill4 and Umbrella cronicles, and Nights. Their names and some accepted level of quality could be enough to sell these and developers will know.
You missed the "getting new announcments" part
I am not trying to see "most" developers. I am trying to see the "few" developers which are the ones who stand out.
PS3 is irrelevant with Wii though. "Europe will save the PS3" doesnt mean "Wii will do bad" though. Sales were still there for Wii, and the PS3 is irrelevant to the motives developers have for Wii.
Also about PS3 getting announcmemnts, hopes that "Europe would save PS3" still involves huge uncertainty and devs arent idiots to jump in with the assumption of the "best case scenario". Not to mention that although you make it sound as if people were expecting that Europe would actually make the PS3 the fastest selling console or increase sales tremendously to compensate for two territories, we only expected Europe to improve sales and set the PS3 at a very satisfactory position. Europe is just one territory.
As for E3 I hope it is what you are saying, that developers are waiting to announce their big titles there.
Because so far I ve seen usage of big franchise names I was hoping to see at E3 taking a completely different approach of that I was expecting.
I d like to point out once again that I am bringing up some obesrvations that may indicate towards the possibility and direction I mention. I am not saying things will be that way. I am playing the role of the "devil's advocate" and I have every good reason to
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Ether_Snake
Newcomer
My view remains that the Wii will have difficulties starting early 2008 (it's last big sales boost will be holidays 2007) because of heightened interest in the 360 and PS3 games such as GTAIV and even due to merely announced games for said consoles such as RE5. There will be a few key selling Wii games in the likeness of Wii Play, but not much if not from Nintendo. No matter how many aunts and grandpas like the Wii, chances are they'll just ask the niece to bring the Wii again at the Thanksgiving family party, but they won't actually purchase one, let alone actual games.
The most important aspect of this is how it may lead a lot of third parties like EA and Ubisoft to spend a lot of money in Wii development due to hype and console sales only to meet low sales in the end (EA's Boogie will make or break their commitment to the Wii IMO), especially against first party games, and more than anything due to growing interest in the 360 and PS3 lineup. Right now the Wii is not too affected because we are still in the transition phase.
I also see Japanese developers falling behind, unable to make technologically-advanced games such as Splinter Cell Conviction, Crysis, etc, due to lack of technical know how and lack of information sharing. Add to this the fact that employees have little room to improve their careers as they are stuck within their specific fields with very little chances of gaining additional knowledge. This will seclude them on the Wii, DS and PS and cause the Japanese market to shrink outside of Japan.
The most important aspect of this is how it may lead a lot of third parties like EA and Ubisoft to spend a lot of money in Wii development due to hype and console sales only to meet low sales in the end (EA's Boogie will make or break their commitment to the Wii IMO), especially against first party games, and more than anything due to growing interest in the 360 and PS3 lineup. Right now the Wii is not too affected because we are still in the transition phase.
I also see Japanese developers falling behind, unable to make technologically-advanced games such as Splinter Cell Conviction, Crysis, etc, due to lack of technical know how and lack of information sharing. Add to this the fact that employees have little room to improve their careers as they are stuck within their specific fields with very little chances of gaining additional knowledge. This will seclude them on the Wii, DS and PS and cause the Japanese market to shrink outside of Japan.
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tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
I dont think you will suddenly see a complete shift in games because of 1 or 2 titels. People interrested in those titels already know its coming so why bother with buying a Wii than? also you forget that Wii also will be getting more and bigger games.
Ubi sold almost 1million copies of both rayman and RS, sales wont be the problem if you actually make a somewhat decent game.
Your joking right? Japanese devs lack technical know how? There've been plenty of awsome looking games from Japanese devs (RE4 for GC, or what about FF on ps3? or GT5?) and IMO there is more kind of games from Japanese devs than from western devs. What ''we'' usually make is shooters, sports games and that kind of standard stuff while you do see something new from time to time from Japanese devs wich you hardly see from western devs.
I think he put the big japanese developers with the group of the other casual ones which as a result made him make genberalized and incomplete conclusions.
It is true that the Japanese gaming industry lacks in some occasions compared to Europe and US. I remember reading an article years ago about this.
One complain which striked me was that the colleges and universities in Japan teaching game design fail to teach even the most basic things that are taught in the West. I remember one thing which I found very funny. the editor said (or the interviewee I dont remember) that you get there and they teach you things that were functionable 10-20 years ago but have no usage today. This should make creativity and expression lack in their games
Other problems were japanese stabborness and stagnation which started to put them in a very disadvandaegous position compared to the West which is evovling fast especially in the console market where Japanese used to have the upper hand. There were many interesting bits I cant quite remember right now. I wish I could find that article again.
The big developers like Capcom, Polyphony, Konami and more are the exception of the japanese developers who still continue to have the upper hand in console gaming and continue to produce mindblowing unique games. This will hardly lose or suffer the consequences the other japanese developers will.
So under these respects you are both right
It is true that the Japanese gaming industry lacks in some occasions compared to Europe and US. I remember reading an article years ago about this.
One complain which striked me was that the colleges and universities in Japan teaching game design fail to teach even the most basic things that are taught in the West. I remember one thing which I found very funny. the editor said (or the interviewee I dont remember) that you get there and they teach you things that were functionable 10-20 years ago but have no usage today. This should make creativity and expression lack in their games
Other problems were japanese stabborness and stagnation which started to put them in a very disadvandaegous position compared to the West which is evovling fast especially in the console market where Japanese used to have the upper hand. There were many interesting bits I cant quite remember right now. I wish I could find that article again.
The big developers like Capcom, Polyphony, Konami and more are the exception of the japanese developers who still continue to have the upper hand in console gaming and continue to produce mindblowing unique games. This will hardly lose or suffer the consequences the other japanese developers will.
So under these respects you are both right
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
I dont really agree. As far as im concerned the majority of Japanese games has more creativity and expresion that western games. As far as creativity goes, western devs mostly use the same concepts over and over again. GTA is the only thing I can think of wich is truly different. Expression might also be a bit personal, but I always feel Japanese games are alot more ''alive'' than western games.
Thats because we are more familiar with the popular japanese developers which are usually the ones who have global interest. These japanese developers indeed are very expressive and thats why I am more of a fan of Japanese games. There are tons of developers in Japan we have no idea they even exist though. How many Japanese developers can you name?
When I was in Saudi Arabia there were countless of pirated games imported from Japan (a few originals were used only for cover ups on their stand
). I used to get lots of pirated PS1 games back then. You cant imagine how many games you could get from unknown to us Japanese developers. A great deal of them were the standard weird "japanese" games which I was too scared to buy This games usually lack technically and artistically because there are many "small" and incompetent developers. The big developers which we love and adore are different. They are the ones who keep the Japanese gaming tradition of expression and creativity alive
Even Kojima himself "attacked" today's Japanse development culture in an interview
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
But isnt it exactly the same the other way around? there are countless western devs putting stuff out that lacks in every area too. I dont think one or the other is better or worse. Both have good devs and both have bad devs. You probably have more in Japan because there will be a few that buy strange weird stuff anyway opposed the here in the west were you need something along the usuall shooter or whatever line to get your game out to start with.
Nintendo has had great E3s that did not translate into sales. MS had fantastic E3s during Xbox 1 years. Didn't save them in comparison to the PS2.
Sony with the PS1 and PS2 had 110+ million market. People simply assumed that the same thing would occur with PS3. If you simply blow off the prevailing sentiment at the time in the gaming market, you're engaging in some serious revisionist history.
It's obvious from this statement that you have no comprehension of how long it takes to make a game, even a "quick works" one.
You assume that developers haven't been shifting free resources to the Wii. But how big do you think some of these companies are? No company would take resources from a project that is half done or almost done. Those are sunk costs as is.
Again, if developers at large don't start jumping on the Wii bandwagon at E3, particularly in light of the extraordinary sales, then Nintendo is in trouble then. They need broad 3rd party support to sustain the Wii's sales long term. A few titles such as the ones you've mentioned help, but they aren't broad support like the 360 or PS3 enjoy at the moment.
Right now it's a guessing game, and as I said, E3 is where developers will make a splash if they're going to.
I didn't miss it. Most developers wait until E3 to announce their new projects. And if you're trying to see the "few" developers, then you've already named several projects which have been announced. Dragon Quest, RE4 and Umbrella Chronicles, Nights, and EA announced they were shifting resources in a massive way to the Wii several weeks ago.
However, Squeenix, Capcom, Sega, and EA are not most developers. It's a start to be sure, but Nintendo certainly needs more title support to sustain itself longterm.
PS3 isn't irrelevant at all. If PS3 were priced competitively and were selling as well as the Wii, the Wii would be dead in the water imo. Developers would be targeting all of their games to that platform, and giving short shrift to the Wii console.
What the sales domination of the Wii has allowed is the shift of top quality resources to the Wii; something we would not have seen last generation.
You haven't seen prognosticators on this forum stating that the PS3 would dominate EU while 360 dominates US and Wii dominates Japan have you. You also are playing into some hugely revisionist history in the run up to the PS3 Euro launch.
As for devs, again, their projects started well before the PS3 launched. They can't simply scrap those projects and say "Hey! We're going to go with the Wii now and eat the last 6-12 months worth of costs for PS3 development. Wii FTW!"
At the end of the day those developers are businesses, and no amount of ungodly sales from the Wii will change that. Once their current projects are completed, they will shift their resources as soon as they can to the Wii.
In the case of larger organizations like Capcom and Square-Enix and EA, they can have multiple teams and begin the process of shifting in the here and now. But that isn't every developer.
* Natoma pulls out hair.
I've been stating this for the past several months, and in particular this thread! Hell, the last several posts I've made!
Most developers wait until E3 to announce their big guns. IF the Wii doesn't get a tidal wave of new developer support at E3, I'd be very worried if I were Nintendo. They couldn't have asked for more than 7 million consoles sold only 6 months after launch. That's unheard of.
If those kinds of sales don't translate to huge amounts of developer support, they're cooked.
Playing devil's advocate when based on sound logic is perfectly fine. I do it a lot as well. Playing devil's advocate simply to be contrarian, but having no basis in fact, is not. And honestly, that's what you've been engaging in.