Wii Sales: Less Than Meets the Eye

My view remains that the Wii will have difficulties starting early 2008 (it's last big sales boost will be holidays 2007) because of heightened interest in the 360 and PS3 games such as GTAIV and even due to merely announced games for said consoles such as RE5. There will be a few key selling Wii games in the likeness of Wii Play, but not much if not from Nintendo. No matter how many aunts and grandpas like the Wii, chances are they'll just ask the niece to bring the Wii again at the Thanksgiving family party, but they won't actually purchase one, let alone actual games.

That's a lot of assumptions. That said, I'll refer back to something I said in another thread. The sales domination of the Wii hasn't been a repudiation of "hardcore" gaming. It's been a repudiation of $300+ gaming. Until the 360 and PS3 drop below $300, no kind of game will help them sell. And by that point, the Wii will most certainly be well past the 360 in sales, and have left the PS3 even further behind.

Not a good picture at this point in time. Really, Sony and MS have got to drop those prices.

The most important aspect of this is how it may lead a lot of third parties like EA and Ubisoft to spend a lot of money in Wii development due to hype and console sales only to meet low sales in the end (EA's Boogie will make or break their commitment to the Wii IMO), especially against first party games, and more than anything due to growing interest in the 360 and PS3 lineup. Right now the Wii is not too affected because we are still in the transition phase.

Given that Ubisoft sold a million copies of Rayman and a million copies of Red Steel, I don't think they're particularly hurting in that regard. ;)

I also see Japanese developers falling behind, unable to make technologically-advanced games such as Splinter Cell Conviction, Crysis, etc, due to lack of technical know how and lack of information sharing. Add to this the fact that employees have little room to improve their careers as they are stuck within their specific fields with very little chances of gaining additional knowledge. This will seclude them on the Wii, DS and PS and cause the Japanese market to shrink outside of Japan.

Ok that's just silly talk. I won't even bother to respond further on this point. :LOL:
 
Nintendo has had great E3s that did not translate into sales. MS had fantastic E3s during Xbox 1 years. Didn't save them in comparison to the PS2.

Sony with the PS1 and PS2 had 110+ million market. People simply assumed that the same thing would occur with PS3. If you simply blow off the prevailing sentiment at the time in the gaming market, you're engaging in some serious revisionist history.
You are the one who said this:
In fact, if you go back to threads around E3 last season, people were prognosticating the demise of the Wii and Nintendo. Analysts, developers, and gamers alike. Thus, no developer other than the rare gem like Ubisoft would've dared allocate major resources to the Wii.

When clearly back then Wii a;so recieved lots of acclaim by media and even many forum members opposed those who said that Wii was going to do badly
It's obvious from this statement that you have no comprehension of how long it takes to make a game, even a "quick works" one.

How is that relevant? The only point is that there might be higher potential to sell more units. The comprhension problem is not on my part
You assume that developers haven't been shifting free resources to the Wii. But how big do you think some of these companies are? No company would take resources from a project that is half done or almost done. Those are sunk costs as is.

Again I fail to understand the relevance between this and what I was trying to say. You are stuck on the games that already came. I am pointing towards how developers could(possibility) react with future productsAFTER they review their current performance of their current software sales . Why are you still stuck on the "sunk cost" caused by games that were already in development for some time or already released as if I am talking about these titles I wonder.

Again, if developers at large don't start jumping on the Wii bandwagon at E3, particularly in light of the extraordinary sales, then Nintendo is in trouble then. They need broad 3rd party support to sustain the Wii's sales long term. A few titles such as the ones you've mentioned help, but they aren't broad support like the 360 or PS3 enjoy at the moment.

Right now it's a guessing game, and as I said, E3 is where developers will make a splash if they're going to.

I think its my english the problem here because it I never spoke about lack of support yet I gave that impression.

I never said lack of support. Never ever EVER pointed to lack of support. The thing has TREMENDOUS support but this was never the problem or the discussed issue. I was pointing towards huge support with lack of motivation at offering titles that are beyond the simple satisfactory level.

SO again this is also irrelevant!

I didn't miss it. Most developers wait until E3 to announce their new projects. And if you're trying to see the "few" developers, then you've already named several projects which have been announced. Dragon Quest, RE4 and Umbrella Chronicles, Nights, and EA announced they were shifting resources in a massive way to the Wii several weeks ago.

However, Squeenix, Capcom, Sega, and EA are not most developers. It's a start to be sure, but Nintendo certainly needs more title support to sustain itself longterm.

Thas why I said I ll wait to see if big developers will announce big projects as you suggested. I always expected Wii projects from them. How and what these games will be is my consideration.

PS3 isn't irrelevant at all. If PS3 were priced competitively and were selling as well as the Wii, the Wii would be dead in the water imo. Developers would be targeting all of their games to that platform, and giving short shrift to the Wii console.

IF it was priced competitively. But it is NOT. We all knew PS3 was impossible to be priced competitively since E3 2006. So this is an irrelevant point. We arent discussing how things could have been. We are discussing how things were and are.
What the sales domination of the Wii has allowed is the shift of top quality resources to the Wii; something we would not have seen last generation.

Shift of top quality resources is extremely subjective. The only thing that is undoubtedly quaranteed is shift of support towards the console.

You haven't seen prognosticators on this forum stating that the PS3 would dominate EU while 360 dominates US and Wii dominates Japan have you. You also are playing into some hugely revisionist history in the run up to the PS3 Euro launch.
Really just because some forum members said this?
Also even as such, what does this say aboutglobal/total sales? of Wii and PS3?

As for devs, again, their projects started well before the PS3 launched. They can't simply scrap those projects and say "Hey! We're going to go with the Wii now and eat the last 6-12 months worth of costs for PS3 development. Wii FTW!"

Point me where :
I talked about PS3 projects shifting towards Wii
I talked about games that where announced nearly after PS3's release or before release

Also I d like to see the list you have of all the dates each of the newest PS3 projects begun before their announcment


At the end of the day those developers are businesses, and no amount of ungodly sales from the Wii will change that. Once their current projects are completed, they will shift their resources as soon as they can to the Wii.

In the case of larger organizations like Capcom and Square-Enix and EA, they can have multiple teams and begin the process of shifting in the here and now. But that isn't every developer.

Oh exactly you got that right..... They are first of all businesses! Thats why they act opportunistically and care about maximizing profits not necessarilly about offering high budget titles. If they can sell enough and maximize profits without the need to make big projects they will do exactly that.
* Natoma pulls out hair.

I've been stating this for the past several months, and in particular this thread! Hell, the last several posts I've made! :LOL: :rolleyes: :LOL:

I didnt claim this as MY statement. I quoted your statement and said that I hope you are right about this THING (that you happen to claim for months and I didnt know)

Most developers wait until E3 to announce their big guns. IF the Wii doesn't get a tidal wave of new developer support at E3, I'd be very worried if I were Nintendo. They couldn't have asked for more than 7 million consoles sold only 6 months after launch. That's unheard of.

If those kinds of sales don't translate to huge amounts of developer support, they're cooked.
They WILL have support, more developers WILL join Nintendo, a TON of games WILL be announced. But I was NEVER pointing towards LACK of support or lack of game announcments!

I was soleley refering to the QUALITY of these games.
Playing devil's advocate when based on sound logic is perfectly fine. I do it a lot as well. Playing devil's advocate simply to be contrarian, but having no basis in fact, is not. And honestly, that's what you've been engaging in.

The problem is that

1) You are taking my reference towards possibilities as if I am claiming they will undoubtedly happen whilst I am accepting your estimations that at E3 developers will announce HUGE titles for Wii (not just titles)

2) You are misinterpreting my points continuously.

3) My points are based on possibilities of actual business behaviour and motivation towards maximizing profits.

How complicate is it to understand that the more quaranteed your sales are the less you need to spend extra money (costs) to ensure sales?

I think that the whole arguing is a result of a misunderstanding because in reality I dont disagree with your points. I just add some other possibly ignored factors
 
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Nesh,

Is english your primary language? The reason I ask is that I'm not the only one making these points with respect to game development timelines, how they correlate to Wii sales, etc. Teasy and Rolf N made the same exact arguments that I've made, in slightly different ways, and you just don't seem to understand.

I'm just wondering, because I'm not exactly sure how to take these "Business 101" concepts and explain them any further. Someone else want to give it a try? :???:
 
Nesh,

Is english your primary language? The reason I ask is that I'm not the only one making these points with respect to game development timelines, how they correlate to Wii sales, etc. Teasy and Rolf N made the same exact arguments that I've made, in slightly different ways, and you just don't seem to understand.

I'm just wondering, because I'm not exactly sure how to take these "Business 101" concepts and explain them any further. Someone else want to give it a try? :???:

No English isnt my primary language.

But I doubt language is solely the problem (akthough I think it is partially). Probably we are pointing to different things and we are wasting our time trying to understand what each is saying.

Or perhaps there is some major difference in perception because of different economic/business theories we might be familiar with.
 
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