hiybbprqag
Newcomer
I know the lot of you immediately thought KINECT!!!....No sorry to disappoint this isn't about that.
Earlier this year, after reading about the now debunked yukon architecture of the next Xbox, It dawned on me what Microsoft was really up to. Even now that it has been revealed that it's just one SOC with seemingly underwhelming specs. Even with the embarrassing E3 DRM fiasco. Those events have only made Microsoft's intentions clearer.
Everyone keeps debating about the next gen tflops this, GBytes that. Yes, one will be faster (PS4) than the other. Yes, we may see a drop in performance/image quality compared to PS4. But you know what? It won't matter in the end. Because Microsoft didn't just set out to create a console.
Microsoft's real agenda behind Xbox One is a Platform. One SOC to rule them all
Think about it. The slower RAM. The relatively small ESRAM. The castrated GPU. Yeah, I know they said they engineered it for balance rather that brute force. But I think the engineers where more so constrained by something else. Something that the PS4 was not.
And that my friends is a Power budget. Or more precisely a mobile Power budget. Remember when the slide used to say "TSMC HPM" me thinks that was a hint.
Sure with enough node cycles any SOC's die can be shrunk enough to go mobile but, I think the Xbox will get there sooner.
Obviously, at a massive 362mm2 die size, Xbox One's SOC is no mobile chip. What about three years from now?
TSMC estimates a 1.9 density increase at 20nm which is due next year. So for arguments sake lets say a 2x increase in density per die shrink. So if we estimate half the die size next year 362/2=180. Then again two years after that in 2016 when node size is at 16nm 180/2=90. Now an Xbox One SOC of 90mm2 size compares rather well to a Snapdragon 800 at 120mm2.
Now what about that power budget I must confess this is where my argument kinda falls apart. At 20nm node TSMC estimates a 25% reduction of power. At 16nm with finfet tech they estimate 37%. So at 100w TDP. 100-25-37=38. 38watts is huge for a mobile device. About ten times to much. Now maybe Microsoft has more "secret sauce" a future flavor that will temper a 38watt chip. Maybe someone else has some ideas on this...
This console generation may very well be the last. It is clear to me that Microsoft has planned for this. It seems likely that in three to five years time we will be see a mobile version of the Xbox One.
Now I invite you to look back at that Xbox One E3 video. And imagine if you will, instead of a console device, they were talking about a mobile one. Imagine a tablet or phone that can Instantly switch from Game to App to Skype to Camera to Phone with no stuttering, no lag, just a seamless experience. All thanks to a novel 3 OS design. Imagine the full Xbox One experience right there in your fingertips away from TV.
Imagine all that Kinect technology being applied to a mobile device. Xbox One's audio processor can discern your voice from background noise. Imagine a phone that has flawless voice command. Or how about having a phone conversation in a noisy bar, again made possible by Kinect audio technology filtering out background noise. How about a device that can unlock even in the dark because it can see in the dark and can recognize your face because of it's time of flight camera.Hmmm...so I guess it is a little about the Kinect
Disclaimer: I'm no tech guru. Most of this stuff is wishful thinking and wild speculation. I'm getting tired of the endless debates about which specs are better, or how much better, or if we will see a difference. I think we should move on and think about the 10 years this console generation will bring and what we want out of it.
Earlier this year, after reading about the now debunked yukon architecture of the next Xbox, It dawned on me what Microsoft was really up to. Even now that it has been revealed that it's just one SOC with seemingly underwhelming specs. Even with the embarrassing E3 DRM fiasco. Those events have only made Microsoft's intentions clearer.
Everyone keeps debating about the next gen tflops this, GBytes that. Yes, one will be faster (PS4) than the other. Yes, we may see a drop in performance/image quality compared to PS4. But you know what? It won't matter in the end. Because Microsoft didn't just set out to create a console.
Microsoft's real agenda behind Xbox One is a Platform. One SOC to rule them all
Think about it. The slower RAM. The relatively small ESRAM. The castrated GPU. Yeah, I know they said they engineered it for balance rather that brute force. But I think the engineers where more so constrained by something else. Something that the PS4 was not.
And that my friends is a Power budget. Or more precisely a mobile Power budget. Remember when the slide used to say "TSMC HPM" me thinks that was a hint.
Sure with enough node cycles any SOC's die can be shrunk enough to go mobile but, I think the Xbox will get there sooner.
Obviously, at a massive 362mm2 die size, Xbox One's SOC is no mobile chip. What about three years from now?
TSMC estimates a 1.9 density increase at 20nm which is due next year. So for arguments sake lets say a 2x increase in density per die shrink. So if we estimate half the die size next year 362/2=180. Then again two years after that in 2016 when node size is at 16nm 180/2=90. Now an Xbox One SOC of 90mm2 size compares rather well to a Snapdragon 800 at 120mm2.
Now what about that power budget
I must confess this is where my argument kinda falls apart. At 20nm node TSMC estimates a 25% reduction of power. At 16nm with finfet tech they estimate 37%. So at 100w TDP. 100-25-37=38. 38watts is huge for a mobile device. About ten times to much. Now maybe Microsoft has more "secret sauce" a future flavor that will temper a 38watt chip. Maybe someone else has some ideas on this...This console generation may very well be the last. It is clear to me that Microsoft has planned for this. It seems likely that in three to five years time we will be see a mobile version of the Xbox One.
Now I invite you to look back at that Xbox One E3 video. And imagine if you will, instead of a console device, they were talking about a mobile one. Imagine a tablet or phone that can Instantly switch from Game to App to Skype to Camera to Phone with no stuttering, no lag, just a seamless experience. All thanks to a novel 3 OS design. Imagine the full Xbox One experience right there in your fingertips away from TV.
Imagine all that Kinect technology being applied to a mobile device. Xbox One's audio processor can discern your voice from background noise. Imagine a phone that has flawless voice command. Or how about having a phone conversation in a noisy bar, again made possible by Kinect audio technology filtering out background noise. How about a device that can unlock even in the dark because it can see in the dark and can recognize your face because of it's time of flight camera.
Hmmm...so I guess it is a little about the KinectDisclaimer: I'm no tech guru. Most of this stuff is wishful thinking and wild speculation. I'm getting tired of the endless debates about which specs are better, or how much better, or if we will see a difference. I think we should move on and think about the 10 years this console generation will bring and what we want out of it.
