When will current-gen console production stop? *spawn

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by DSoup, Jun 28, 2020.

  1. eastmen

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    How low do you guys think they can get the ps4 price point down too ? How small do you think they can make the ps4 ?

    There is lockhart coming. Is it $200? $250 ? $300? then can they sell a ps4 for $200 or $250 or $300 ? What is the value of a ps4 next to a box that can play 90% of the ps4 games with super fast load times and higher resolution and frame rates . That will also get 90% of all the new games coming out in the future and support the same feature set as the ps5 and xsx ?

    The PS1 was made smaller and hit a $100 price point I believe when the ps2 was launched at $300. You had a huge buffer in pricing. The ps2 was $150 I believe when the PS3 was introduced at $500/$600 even the 360 was $300/$400

    I guess we will find out in the near term future who is right
     
  2. see colon

    see colon All Ham & No Potatos
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    For context, PS1 launched in 1995. PS2 launched in 2000. PS1 ended production in 2006. PS3 launched in 2006. PS2 ended production in 2013 (maybe into 2014, or just until the end of 2013) PS4 launched in 2013. PS3 ends production in 2017.

    If past is prologue, Sony will continue making PS4's for a while. I doubt they will make the Pro, though. Having a higher cost version of your lower cost console when your new console is backwards compatible sort of puts it in no man's land.
     
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  3. Inuhanyou

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    No but having an ultra low cost option for that in ps4 instead of locking their ecosystem to ps5 when they dont have to seems weird. If ps4 can already play ps4 games (obviously) and sony can sell it at a profit for more casual users into the future why wouldent they do that?

    All they need to do is streamline and consolidate their offerings for maximum penetration of both machines and gutting the current two ps4 skus in favor of one smaller ultra low cost 7nm ps4 and ultra high end 7nm ps5 makes most sense.
     
  4. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Why? Sony have continued every one of their other consoles several years into the new generation without targeting them with software. I don't see why some would expect anything different, especially when the long term gains of those consoles are far higher thanks to network subs. Sony have more incentive than ever before to sell cheap hardware.

    They couldn't get PS3 cheap or small, but they continued producing it for three years into PS4's life cycle.

    Your arguments are exactly the same one could have thrown around in 2013 as to why Sony were going to stop producing PS3 very quickly. That didn't happen then - what's the logic in the same situation as then leading to an earlier termination of the console this time, especially when the situation is even more favourable for PS4 as it's likely to be cost reduceable better and offers better long-term profits potential from subs/network takings?
    Why'd you stop there and not look at PS3? It dropped to $200 three months before PS4 hit the shelve and stayed there, being manufactured for three years.

    AFAICS the PS4's RRP is currently $299 and has been sat at that price for four years. Is it not far more likely, given Sony's history, that Sony will produce a cheaper model and keep selling that for the next 3+ years at the <= $200 price point, than will terminate the console production as soon as PS5 hits the shelves and offer no price option for gamers below $400+ for PS5? Every other generation, they've continued a low-cost option in of the old gen alongside the high-cost option of the new generation. What's the logic/reasoning in thinking that'll change?

    Edit: I see your argument is actually that with Lockhart, Sony won't be able to compete and so won't bother trying. That's predicated on 1) Sony knowing Lockhart is coming out ; it's not official yet, and 2) Lockhart being able to be produced cheap enough to be competitive with PS4SuperSlim.

    The decision to shrink PS4 and cost reduce had to happen a while ago for a product releasing this year, most likely, which will be a choice made without awareness of MS's plans unless Sony have inside information. I think those PS4SS plans are in effect. The only way PS4 will get stopped by Lockhart is when both products are on the market and if Sony sees PS4 sales dry up, at which point the PS4SS will be pulled. But that'll be in reaction to the market at the time. The decision to shrink and cost reduce PS4 has to be independent of MS's plans and that must be going ahead because they have with all their previous consoles, with great effect AFAIK with PS1 and PS2 super slims, and it makes even more sense for PS4 than it did those older consoles.

    Heck even if Lockhart releases, it won't be immediately alongside XBSX by accounts, so a year later, say, and then when it enters the market, it won't have appeal beyond what MS can market. That is, it's not like once it arrives, every potential PS4 buyer will choose Lockhart instead. There are plenty of markets where XBox isn't even a consideration no matter how good the value on offer. So there'd be another year at least of competing, with Lockhart sucking up NA low-cost users (assuming it's price competitive with PS4SS) and PS4SS selling through Europe. Maybe after that, 2022, MS will have marketed the bejeesus out of Lockhart and no-one will buy PS4SS because LH does everything PS4SS does but better. Even with LH on the market, PS4 is going to be kept going a minimum of two years into PS5. The only way that can't happen is if MS pull out LH this year alongside XBSX and market it like stink with superb regional targeting to usurp the entrenched PS brand.
     
    #24 Shifty Geezer, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  5. goonergaz

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    The PS4 is already 300 so a super slim would probably be around 200 - a console with an amazing library of games and exclusives that plays something as good looking as the last of us 2 at 1080p. The only things you’re locked out of is new PlayStation exclusives. A great bargain, 2nd machine, cheap console for little Johnny...it’ll sell fine.
     
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  6. Xbat

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    I don't see how you think Lockhart can be $200, I don't think that's possible.
    I think it's a stretch that we will see a $200 PS4 but even if they don't release a super slim the PS4 will still be around for another three years I think.
     
  7. goonergaz

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    As @Shifty Geezer said, it’s been 300 for a while - didn’t they even have it at 200 for Black Friday? I can see the slim hitting 250 with a super slim digital at 200 and see how it fairs...there’s plenty of life left on PS4 as we’ve not hit a sustained low price yet
     
  8. Inuhanyou

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    I dont think lockhart will be a disruption to ps4 ss as shifty says. Instead it will be seen as an option lower tier xbox users in the US

    I think lh will be 399 with a gamepass sub..unless one thinks the gpu and ram and casing and power supply are eating up 300 dollars worth of the s and x difference.

    The ps4 with a 7nm die shrink seems solid at 199, especially in countries who dont care about xbox.
     
    #28 Inuhanyou, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  9. KeanuReeves

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    I think there is reason to assume the opposite.
    Once the sales made on PS4 hardware drop low enough they will likely stop making PS4s.
     
  10. Ronaldo8

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    When there will be no new COD/FIFA being released on them.
     
  11. DSoup

    DSoup meh
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    Just revisiting the production spans of previous Sony home consoles.
    So again, what's people logic/expectation for Sony stopping PS4 production anytime soon?
     
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  12. Globalisateur

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    Indeed. Logically it should be the year after PS5 Pro launch. So I'd guess >= 2024
     
  13. Goodtwin

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    2023. Consoles havent been able to get the price down into the basement like they could back before the 360/PS3 era. PS2 sold for $99 for quite a few years. No way was Sony ever going to get the PS3 down to that price, and I cant see it happening with the PS4 either. Console manufactures need their legacy consoles to continue to sell while they build a larger userbase with their new hardware, but after 2-3 years, it becomes more desirable to push consumers toward their new hardware.
     
  14. BRiT

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    Backwards compatibility built in.
    Super fast loading times -- who wants to wait 3+ minutes for games to load?
     
  15. see colon

    see colon All Ham & No Potatos
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    I think it's important to remember also that this generation is the one that moved to digital as the majority distribution method. Sony's own history shows their willingness to produce consoles long past their successor's launch. But this generation, their is even less of a motivation to end production because there exists a near complete library of games available for sale digitally they are not beholden to wall space at a retailer or production costs or inventory constraints. As long as they can sell the hardware for a profit, and take 30% (or whatever their cut of digital sales is) of sales from PSN, why wouldn't they continue making the system.
     
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  16. DSoup

    DSoup meh
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    Nobody, but it comes at a literal cost that a lot of people cannot afford. people are still buying PS4s and One S console today and people will continue to current current gen consoles after PS5/XSX launch.

    We've seen this with decades over many generations of console. Why is this going to change now? For many, buying a console cheap that comes with a massive library of quality super cheap games is their only option. For a lot of people, paying $60 for a game is never going to happen.
     
  17. Xbat

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    The big question is how much cheaper can they make a super slim and is it worth it.

    At what point does 500GB of flash become cheaper than a mechanical of the same size?

    How small will the PS4 APU be at 7nm and how easy to cool?

    Also I'm positive a cheaper console has to come with a disk drive.
     
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  18. London-boy

    London-boy Shifty's daddy
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    Didn't I see someone on B3D theorising what the PS4/Pro APU would look like/run at on 7nm? No? I dreamt it?
     
  19. BRiT

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    Sony has over 100 million consoles that can be part of the secondary market as people upgrade to PS5. No reason for those who upgraded to keep their old console. It's not needed to finish their current games or backlog. :wink:
     
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  20. goonergaz

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    which could also be said for PS2 & PS3 launches
     
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