What will PS3 Xbox2 Cube2 graphics look like?

[bleon]

At the time when PSX was leading the console market, people knew what to expect from the next generation consoles - "toy story" quality real time graphics that looked like the FMV prerendered sequences used in PSX games.

With graphics from games like Silent Hill 3 looking really impressive (nearly FF the Spirits Within quality) what kind of graphics should we expect from PS3 Xbox2 Cube2?

 

[mech]

We're definitely starting to get diminishing returns.

I think the next-gen will focus more on things like image quality... and more things on screen at once. Also better textures - we're at the point now where the models in games like SH3 or PGR would be hard to better. It'd be more about effects, framerate, texturing, and clean image quality.

 

[bleon]

Maybe HDTV resolutions will become the standard to provide a bump up in image quality. I agree that models won't really benefit greatly from increasing geometry. Maybe the next gen graphics will look like the FMVs seen in FFX. If so, it would be kinda disappointing

 

[V3]

We're definitely starting to get diminishing returns.

What do you mean by that ?

 

[cybamerc]

mech:

> We're definitely starting to get diminishing returns.

Nonsense. Just because you can have a couple of fairly smooth looking models on screen doesn't mean there's nowhere to go from here. We need not just a couple of characters but tens if not hundreds or thousands. Hair and clothing needs to be rendered with much greater realism. Grass and trees still have a long way to go (even if you're just using a simple textured quad for leaves think about how many it will take to make a realistic looking tree). Every needs to be lit and shadowed properly too. And of course we need better physics, AI and animation as well because the illusion of realism will quickly go away if everything else doesn't hold up to the quality of the rendering.

 

[Steelwire]

Hmmm... What you should be expecting is what the artists are capable of delivering.

Curved surfaces will definitely come in to play. This should make the artists life a little easier as long as good editors are available.

Shadows will finally be everywhere (this requires quite a lot of grunt from the machines because the lighting effects become global - e.g. a light a long way from the poly being rendered is blocked by an object quite some way from the poly which means you have a bigger set of polys to use in rendering).

But, I still find myself asking this question.... "do graphics make a game".... answer.... not in any sense. Some examples from the DC show this up nicely - Shenmue looks AMAZING but the game is not as interactive as I would like (I spent most of my time in the arcade playing space harrier!). Cray Taxi both looks good and plays brilliantly. Bangai-O is a 2D shooter with a lot of sprites and plays fantastically, Mr Driller - very simple presentation - horribly, horribly addictive game!

I think presentation is probably more important than the graphics although there is clearly some overlap there.

 

[bleon]

OK, lets take Jurassic Park computer generated dinos as an example

The scenes have

realistic skin textures
lots of geometry for models and environments
natural looking lighting
photorealism (they generally look real)

Rendered using sgi workstations for hours and is way beyond anything we see today.
Should be possible for next gen graphics right?

 

[cybamerc]

bleon:

> Should be possible for next gen graphics right?

Sure... but in Jurassic Park they only render a few dinosaurs. In a game you would also have to render the entire scenery. That's thousands if not millions of blades of grass and tens or hundreds of complex trees.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Nonsense. Just because you can have a couple of fairly smooth looking models on screen doesn't mean there's nowhere to go from here.

How does that change the fact that we are well into the point of diminishing returns? How much of a leap do you expect PS3/XB2 launch titles to be over the late life cycle prior gen offerings?

We will not see the same type of leap in visuals that we did between last gen and the current. The biggest improvement will almost certainly come from full HDTV implementation. The theoretical power in the next gen hardware may be there, but the rift in terms of what current artistic talents in the industry allow and what we are already seeing is not nearly as great as the technological rift between last gen and this generation.

 

[cybamerc]

BenSkywalker:

> We will not see the same type of leap in visuals that we did between
> last gen and the current.

Perhaps not but that doesn't mean the limit has been reached. There is still a huge difference between CGI as seen in big movie productions and even the best looking computer game. Much bigger than the difference between current and last gen console games.

 

[mech]

The limit hasn't been reached, but we are at a point where it's becoming difficult for artists to create something more challenging for the machine. Models have lips, hands, even fingers now... not just blocky squares. Even the PS2 has games with cut-scenes that resemble CG, with effects to match. By diminishing returns, I mean the image is going to be cleaned up - but like BenSkywalker said, I don't think we're going to see as much of a leap per se.

It's a steady trend upwards, sure, but it's slowing down IMHO. Remember what a difference in graphics a new video card would make? Remember the jump from Voodoo, to Voodoo2 to Voodoo3? Now things just seem to have a better framerate.

And at any rate, like I said: there's only so much detail you can put into models. Then you work on effects... and the difference becomes more subtle. Diminishing returns....

 

[PeterT]

Pffft, diminishing returns... NO WAY!

Try to simulate 1 (yes, ONE) Character in realtime with physically correct rigid Body simulation for the body parts and soft body simulation for the hair and each piece of cloth. Or render 1 simple glass of wine with CORRECT lightning.

I believe that we'll reach diminishing returns in 40 years perhaps, IF the technology continues to advance at it's current pace.

 

[alexsok]

DX9 marks a big jump in the quality of graphics (assuming it's being utilized properly and the artists/programmers take advantage of everything it has to offer).

Constant evolution of the GPU's introduced in DX9 such as static & dynamic flow control (which would solve some problems programmers have been dealing with in the past), 64 & 128bit color precision (which would eliminate artifacts and increase the robustness of effects) and more are becoming more common...

Together with that, the soon to be converged high level languages are already becoming pretty popular (Carmack said that his next engine will be written entirely with high level languages).

And I truly agree with Carmack's statement that rendering our real world would not pose a big problem anymore in another 3-4+ years, but simulating it will... There are tougher problems to solve other than that, so I will place my bets that the next gen is all about trying to simulate the real world, rather than trying to render it as that would be pretty much possible...

We shall see though, as I doubt I would ever see on my monitor anything that even closely resembles a real human being... the next major step in visual quality and immersiveness is 3D Displays (something along the lines of what Sharp introduced lately).

After all, the smallest error or jump in animation in games can ruin the experience for us while playing the game and make us realize what we realize right now: it's only a game.

 

[mech]

Do you understand what I mean by diminishing returns? I'm not saying the calculations will get less intensive, or advances will be made less quickly. I'm saying the impact of the graphics will become less.

Want to see what I mean? An example is Mario 64 vs Mario Sunshine. Mario Sunshine doesn't look amazingly better than Mario 64, yet how much more work has been put into it? How much more data is there, more geometry, and better special effects?

It's easy when you first pioneer something (i.e. 3D graphics) to make great strides, but as we approach rendered quality, the visual difference won't be as significant.

 

[zurich]

Final Fantasy VII - 1996

Final Fantasy X - 2001

There's been an exponential amount of progress here, and I expect five years from now our graphics will rival that of FF Xs CG. I still think the presentation/production leap from the PSOne -> PS2 Final Fantasy games is greater than that of the SNES -> PSOne jump.

zurich

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Yeah, but Mario Sunshine COULD have looked a lot better than Mario 64.

Seriously, there is a big difference between the grass, water, trees in Starfox than the those in previous platformers. There's at least one more generation to grow graphics wise, even on standard TV. HDTV will allow for even more.

 

[alexsok]

Yeah, but Mario Sunshine COULD have looked a lot better than Mario 64.

Seriously, there is a big difference between the grass, water, trees in Starfox than the those in previous platformers. There's at least one more generation to grow graphics wise, even on standard TV. HDTV will allow for even more.

Actually (if i recall correctly), according to Carmack, there are about 2-3 more "big" jumps (the r9700, nv30 kind of jumps) to be made in the future...

As I said in my previous post, if more immersiveness is needed (and it is needed, make no mistake about that), SG (Surround Gaming) and 3D Displays are the solutions to that (the latter being a "bigger" solution to be achieved in the future, while the former being while expensive, a very attractive solution... although u need the cash: Matrox Parhelia & 3 monitors).

 

[V3]

Want to see what I mean? An example is Mario 64 vs Mario Sunshine. Mario Sunshine doesn't look amazingly better than Mario 64, yet how much more work has been put into it? How much more data is there, more geometry, and better special effects?

Mario Sunshine have a shorter development time than Mario 64. And yet Mario Sunshine looks better than Mario 64, that's doesn't sound like diminishing return to me.

 

[Rodéric]

Who care how good they will look if they still have lame gameplay like most games nowadays

 

[V3]

Who care how good they will look if they still have lame gameplay like most games nowadays

That's why we should care about it, if gameplay sucks and the CG is good, at least its worth a look