What current generation console do you have?

[Acert93]

If they were great to begin with. Sales of day-and-date multiplat games indicate that PS3 owners and Xbox 360 owners have been buying software at exactly the same rate this whole generation. That is, if you divide sales of a game on both platforms by respective LTD hardware base, the two numbers will end up close.

Nice theory, although the trend also indicates as the install base increases the sales of individual titles for an attach ration also decreases. If Console A has 20M units and Console B 10M units and each have a 10% attach rate for a new multiplatform title Console A demonstrates a much stronger presence because the general trend is that Console B would not maintain the same 10% rate (dillution of users) when it reaches 20M units.

The reasons are various but it isn't surprising that early adopters buy more software. Likewise as the install base grows, as does software selection, user taste grows and adoption for specific titles (e.g. a Madden title) also become less specific, so these new consumers aren't going to adopt certain software as readily that compelled earlier consumers to adopt a platform to begin with.

Alas, it doesn't really matter for Publishers. What they care about is how their titles sell today and the prospects of titles selling tomorrow.

 

[Rolf N]

Nice theory, although the trend also indicates as the install base increases the sales of individual titles for an attach ration also decreases. If Console A has 20M units and Console B 10M units and each have a 10% attach rate for a new multiplatform title Console A demonstrates a much stronger presence because the general trend is that Console B would not maintain the same 10% rate (dillution of users) when it reaches 20M units.

Yes, that's expected. Another factor that shouldn't be ignored is increased software purchasing activity for new owners (<=3 months or so).

To wit:
March 2009:

• Resident Evil 5: 62:38

April 2009:

• Godfather 2: 63:37

May 2009:

• UFC: 67:33

June 2009:

• Fight Night Round 4: 55:45

July 2009:

• NCAA 10: 61:39

The LTD hardware split through these months was pretty steady at 66:34, with PS3 share increasing very slowly, by about 0.4 percentage points since March.
As you'd predict, the rate of PS3 software sales per LTD unit is slightly higher on average.

That's all the complete pairs within the top 10 in the past six months, so I did no cherry-picking there. However, there are of course several other multiplats where the PS3 version did not make it into the top 10. Among them are also games where we can tell that the ratios are >hardware split, even though the figure isn't known. Prototype is one such case. Maybe you feel these cases debunk the whole theory, but overall this has been going on for so long that I'd opt to disagree. Relative software sales for Xbox 360 and PS3 follow their LTD hardware splits very closely, with a bunch of swings either way but an average slight (single-digit %) advantage for PS3.

Alas, it doesn't really matter for Publishers. What they care about is how their titles sell today and the prospects of titles selling tomorrow.

I have a graph for that as well, but actually those prospects aren't even determined by the US market alone.

 

[dobwal]

If they were great to begin with. Sales of day-and-date multiplat games indicate that PS3 owners and Xbox 360 owners have been buying software at exactly the same rate this whole generation. That is, if you divide sales of a game on both platforms by respective LTD hardware base, the two numbers will end up close.

For a while it was easy to pretend there was something special about Xbox 360 software sales, simply due to PS3 versions falling below top 10 cutoffs while Xbox 360 versions still made it in, but with PS3 LTD share approaching Xbox 360 LTD share ever closer, that's becoming more rare with every passing month.

So basically, if the story is true, Xbox 360 software sales go from completely average to good.

You can't take multiplat data comparsions and then generalize it with a statement that 360 owners and PS3 owners buy software at the same rate. Why, because the PS3 and 360 libraries aren't 100% all multiplat. Outside of GTA4, Madden and the COD franchise, the biggest games every year tend to be exclusive and is especially true for the 360.

Yes, 360 and PS3 gamers have just about the same appetite for multiplat games but the 360 gamers tend to make room for extra helpings for 360 exclusive titles like Halo3, GearsI&II, Fable, Mass Effect, LTD and others at a pace not matched by PS3 gamers when it comes to exclusives other than MGS4 and GT5 Pro.

Furthermore, we have access to stats that give a more widespread view of the general market, there is no need to use multplat data to make an inference to the general market, when LTD software sales and overall game attachment rates are released regularly and provide a more accurate picture of the overall market.

What multiplat data in conjunction with overall software and consoles sales data seems to tell us is that the gap between the consumption of the two consoles' software is less likely about the difference between the general gamers that make up the two userbases but more likely to do with content that is offered by the two respective libraries. One is pretty lacking on the exclusive front when it comes to attracting sales while the other userbase has consumed exclusives like addicts on a binge.

 

[Rodéric]

WHERE'S THE NONE OPTION !!!!oneone11

^^

 

[Rolf N]

You can't take multiplat data comparsions and then generalize it with a statement that 360 owners and PS3 owners buy software at the same rate. Why, because the PS3 and 360 libraries aren't 100% all multiplat. Outside of GTA4, Madden and the COD franchise, the biggest games every year tend to be exclusive and is especially true for the 360.

Comparing exclusives to each other is an inferior method, because all intrinsic properties (genre, quality, launch timing, brand, marketing etc) can differ wildly. Using day-and-day multiplats synchronizes these factors, leaving only userbase and exclusive competitors as variables.

Furthermore, we have access to stats that give a more widespread view of the general market, there is no need to use multplat data to make an inference to the general market, when LTD software sales and overall game attachment rates are released regularly and provide a more accurate picture of the overall market.

I don't have these stats. I certainly don't have total software units per platform month-to-month. Some LTD attach rates, sure, but it's nigh impossible to factor out the one-year headstart Microsoft had. If you care about predicting sales for upcoming games, that's what you'd have to do.

Every software unit since launch counts toward LTD attach, and as old owners continue buying software, the number continues to rise over time. It can also fall in times when the platform is actually at its best health, namely on big hardware sales spikes (price cuts) with moderate/flat software sales. It's just not that useful a metric.
If you wanted to show some sort of difference in the consumption habits between Xbox 360 owners and PS3 owners, why wouldn't that be a number per owner per month? (Quotients of) LTDs as a starting point are so unwieldy.

 

[cbarcus]

I can make one for the US only if that helps.

US only with total consoles sold at various intervals, like Aug 08, would be very nice!

 

[eloic]

WHERE'S THE NONE OPTION !!!!oneone11

^^

Let's reformulate the question: Supposing that you have a current generation console, "what current generation console do you have?"

I built the thread around that question. If somebody hasn't one, that person shouldn't vote (like me ).

Well, I'm still waiting for somebody who says "I just bought a PS3 Slim!!".

 

[digitalwanderer]

WHERE'S THE NONE OPTION !!!!oneone11

^^

If that was an option it would have been included in the poll...go buy one NOW and then come back and vote!

 

[Rolf N]

US only with total consoles sold at various intervals, like Aug 08, would be very nice!

Like this?

 

[betan]

Let's reformulate the question: Supposing that you have a current generation console, "what current generation console do you have?"

I built the thread around that question. If somebody hasn't one, that person shouldn't vote (like me ).

You do know that some people have all three, which is the second missing option. (2^3 - 6) :|

 

[mrcorbo]

I don't have these stats. I certainly don't have total software units per platform month-to-month. Some LTD attach rates, sure, but it's nigh impossible to factor out the one-year headstart Microsoft had. If you care about predicting sales for upcoming games, that's what you'd have to do.

Every software unit since launch counts toward LTD attach, and as old owners continue buying software, the number continues to rise over time. It can also fall in times when the platform is actually at its best health, namely on big hardware sales spikes (price cuts) with moderate/flat software sales. It's just not that useful a metric.
If you wanted to show some sort of difference in the consumption habits between Xbox 360 owners and PS3 owners, why wouldn't that be a number per owner per month? (Quotients of) LTDs as a starting point are so unwieldy.

The yearly purchase rate metric I've been using in the Recent Console Attach Rates thread (attach rate/average time of ownership in months*12) has seemed to do a pretty good job of normalizing the console userbases and time on market. It's still not a perfect comparison, but I'd argue it's the closest we're likely to get with the information we have available. Starting with this post I started posting every time there was an attach rate update for all 3 consoles and started including trending information from the prior measurement.

Since the component numbers are based on the purchasinng behavior of the entire userbase of each console for the entirety of their time on market it doesn't get any more comprehensive than that.

Also not only does normalizing by the average time of onwnership account for the differences in time on market, but it also accounts for the different hardware sales rates. For example if PS3 sales take off, it would hurt the raw attach rate since those owners would not have had time to purchase the average number of games sold on that system. However with the YPR metric, this gets balanced out by all those new owners slowing down the increase in average time of ownership relative to the other consoles.

 

[cbarcus]

Like this?

Yes, thank you!

 

[eloic]

You do know that some people have all three,

Yes, my fault.

which is the second missing option. (2^3 - 6) :|

Nope, is the ONE missing option, because the "None" option is not for this poll and I explained why.