John Reynolds said:
Not even close. 3dfx = rapidly dwindling market share, no OEM contracts worth mentioning, lots of overhead with a board plant that didn't even begin to come close to its production capacity because no one was buying the boards it produced, last product released was built on a core that was basically four years old even then.
Yes, it's monumental that a competitor finally surpassed Nvidia, but wasn't it bound to happen sooner or later? What isn't monumental is that ATi's only been in the driver's seat for one product cycle, at least so far. Let them maintain their performance lead throughout this year and I'll share more of your enthusiasm over this situation.
Here's how it is close in my view:
(1) nVidia is late--a "product cycle" late, just as 3dfx was late (However, prior to the V5--the *only reason* 3dfx's market share was "rapidly dwindling" was because it was so late with the V5. Last numbers I saw ATI is picking up market share versus nVidia, which is not surprsing at all given the product spread offered by the two companies. On the high end, now that GF FX Ultra is cancelled, nVidia is working on being two cycles behind. But the R350 would have seen to that anyway.)
(2) nVidia was considered "number 1" in 3D performance before R300, just as the V3 was clearly "number 1" in 3D perfomance versus nVidia's TNT (the TNT2 didn't ship for 4-5 months until after 3dfx shipped the V3.) I bought the V3 the first month it shipped and had a TNT at the time which I'd been using with my V2s. The V3 demolished TNT in every respect--there was no comparison. It was also much faster than TNT2 as well when it shipped a few months later, but 3dfx's market share was very strong prior to the STB fiasco and the tardy V5. Had 3dfx shipped the V5 on time it would have maintained its market share easily over nVidia, as the GF1 looked punk in comparison. As it was the V5 ended up facing GF2, where things were not so clearly defined. At this point 3dfx was distracted by the STB mess and just lost sight of its core business.
(3) nVidia has been distracted by xBox and its core-logic chipset business, among other things. It's not the same thing as the STB distraction, of course, but these other avenues have served to take the company's focus away from its core 3D chipset business.
(4) Management hubris. 3dfx felt so secure in its position that it even ran ads and stated in articles that it felt a "shakeup" of the industry was coming and it was attempting to change its business model to survive. 3dfx was really--literally--pissed when nVidia shipped the GF1. I often got the impression they felt nVidia was robbing them of something they were entitled to. (Which may have been true according to the lawsuit which got buried in the nVidia buyout.) But nonetheless, nVidia was was just as lax in its attitude in designing nv30 as the company was obviously judging its future products by its former products with no thought whatever as to what might come from a competitor.
(5) As 3dfx struggled to ship the V5, the publicty became increasingly anti-3dfx from virtually every Internet wanna'-be. You remember--we used to roast 'em over the coals a lot over on 3dfx.com, remember? *chuckle* (Ah, but it was fun!) The publicity over the past couple of months, especially over the last month, has been more negative than I have ever seen it for nVidia. And it's due to the nv30 being late, and then to the nv30 not being what people expected versus the R300 (which IMO mirrors the 3dfx V5 publicity cycle to the T.) nVidia hasn't gotten it as badly as 3dfx got it, I don't think, but it's certainly very close. The GF FX Ultra has been the butt of Internet jokes around the world--just as the V5 6K was in it's "day."
Sorry, John, but I just think the irony here is too obvious to be ignored. To me, it's kind of sweet, actually...
The shoe is definitely on the other foot right now for nVidia--but nVidia has been an underdog before so they know what it's like. I think the biggest hurdle nVidia has ahead of it is ATI itself--this is no bumbling, pushover company mismanged by engineers like 3dfx seemed to be...
I think ATi has at last found its 3D "sea legs" so to speak, and will from now on out barring something completely unfoseeable, be a far tougher competitor to nVidia than 3dfx ever was.
Yes, the V56K would've had amazing AA for its time (probably better than the 9700's 6x for edge quality) but I'm not sure I would've paid $600 USD in 2000 for one. Regardless, comparing its technology to that of the GF FX is amazingly inane. The latter is generation upon generation more advanced than the VSA-100 chip, and probably offers a feature list longer than every 3dfx product ever released combined (doesn't help 3dfx that they milked the same core fo nigh a half-decade). Beyond just chip specs, yes, the FX Ultra strikes me as a clumsy piece of engineering with its board size, heat, and noise levels, but most of this is a result of trying to ratchet clock speeds to better compete against the 9700 Pro. A 128-bit memory bus has proven to not be overkill.
I agree that you can't of course compare the VSA architecture to nv30--that'd be silly...
What I was talking about, and which I think you got a sense of, was the ideas and concepts behind the V5 6K. As a complete product, V5 6K I feel was much more sophisticated and complex in an elegant way than was the GF FX Ultra, which was just brute overclocking and overvolting. In fact, I don't recall anyone doing a 3D product on the same principles as GF FX Ultra. You might find something like it featured in a modder's web site *chuckle* but I doubt you'd ever have seen 3dfx make something like it or ATI, for that matter. I think it would have been much more profitable for nVidia to have realized these things back in September as opposed to getting this far with it just to kill it. I hope, I really hope, that nVidia doesn't believe that anyone will buy the 5800 thinking it's an Ultra...*chuckle* Overall, I have found nVidia's handling of this situation with the 9700P to be just about as poorly handled as 3dfx handled nVidia's up-coming competitive products at the time. We've heard the same kind of PR double-talk--but no competitive product appears. That strikes me as hauntingly reminiscent of 3dfx...