The window of opportunity for the PS3 to be compelling as a Hi-Def Media player?

[nelg]

There is no denying that the inclusion of a next generation Hi-Def media player in the PS3 is an attractive feature. What I am curious about is how long do you suppose that it will take for stand alone players to drop in price to where it is no longer a compelling feature. Of course this would have to be weighted against supply issues and potential market sizes. For example if the uptake of of the next generation Hi-Def player is a multiple of the potential PS3 sales and within three years the cost of a stand alone player gets to $200 by then how might this effect the demand of the PS3? Conversely if in four years if the cost of a stand alone player is $400 and the cost of the PS3 is the same, that makes for a very compelling case to purchase a PS3. How fast did DVD players go from $500 to $50. How fast can we expect that to happen this time? Are there factors that will prevent this like licensing fees?

PS. Put the issue of competeing formats aside for this.

 

[Carl B]

I think given your assumptions, there's actually another layer to the whole thing. If and when standalone Blu-ray players get to $200, that bodes well in terms of the sourcing costs of the optical componentry within. PS3 will begin to lose some luster as a BD player in and of itself, but will likely be benefiting from the price drops allowed by it's own BD inclusion dropping in cost and the seeming proliferation of BD in general if the format gets it's players to the $200 mark.

Of course PS3 will be in part responsible for kicking that cycle off in the first place.

It's got a lot of burden placed on it that console does; let's hope that burden isn't too heavy!

 

[mckmas8808]

This is a really good question. I'm not sure how any of this will work out. I think more than anything it's the HDD that will keep the price of the PS3 high, not the Blu-ray player.

 

[Nesh]

There is no denying that the inclusion of a next generation Hi-Def media player in the PS3 is an attractive feature. What I am curious about is how long do you suppose that it will take for stand alone players to drop in price to where it is no longer a compelling feature. Of course this would have to be weighted against supply issues and potential market sizes. For example if the uptake of of the next generation Hi-Def player is a multiple of the potential PS3 sales and within three years the cost of a stand alone player gets to $200 by then how might this effect the demand of the PS3? Conversely if in four years if the cost of a stand alone player is $400 and the cost of the PS3 is the same, that makes for a very compelling case to purchase a PS3. How fast did DVD players go from $500 to $50. How fast can we expect that to happen this time? Are there factors that will prevent this like licensing fees?

PS. Put the issue of competeing formats aside for this.

The difference is that the PS3 would still do other things as well unlike a stand alone BR player

So even stand alone Hi Def players do get cheaper PS3 will still sell

 

[pegisys]

So even stand alone Hi Def players do get cheaper PS3 will still sell

you mean like play games, I still don't think the blu-ray player is going to be driving sales. most of the people that buy it are going to be gamers, I doubt many non gamers would buy a ps3 just for blu-ray, I think the non gamer early adopters will probably buy a standalone unit regardless of the price.

I do think the ps3 is going to fall in price faster then standalone units so gamers that have, and will buy, hdtv's in the coming years probably will opt for the PS3

and I agree the HDD will keep the price on the PS3 higher then the BR will, Sony owns the tech so once they get them in mass production it shouldn't cost them much of anything

 

[Nesh]

you mean like play games, I still don't think the blu-ray player is going to be driving sales. most of the people that buy it are going to be gamers, I doubt many non gamers would buy a ps3 just for blu-ray, I think the non gamer early adopters will probably buy a standalone unit regardless of the price.

I do think the ps3 is going to fall in price faster then standalone units so gamers that have, and will buy, hdtv's in the coming years probably will opt for the PS3

and I agree the HDD will keep the price on the PS3 higher then the BR will, Sony owns the tech so once they get them in mass production it shouldn't cost them much of anything

And a few other functions possibly. If PS3 manages a good start and manages a major percentage of market share, what will drive the console's sales from there and on will be the value of the product as a whole I believe. Not as a BR player, not as a games console but as a complete package for enterteinment.

 

[wco81]

Also depends on what kind of features the PS3 Blu-Ray player will have.

There will be two profiles of players and the higher end will have things like network connections to support interactive features, support for more audio formats, PIP and so on.

If the PS3 had the higher profile, it may be more attractive than cheaper players which has fewer features.

 

[dobwal]

I highly doubt that Blu-Ray will be a feature that sells a large amount of PS3 just because it is a cheap alternative to high price standalone players. Blu-Ray is attractive and compelling because it’s an augmenting feature of a gaming console not a feature that in and of itself is able to sell units. There are many that equate the Blu-Ray/PS3 to DVD/PS2, but there are number of variables that have to be taking in to account.

Blu-Ray at the time of PS3 introduction won’t be as established as DVD at the time of introduction of PS2. The catalog of movie available on DVD at PS2 intro was huge compared to the number that will be available for Blu-Ray at PS3 introduction. Walmart was selling DVDs before the PS2 dropped. DVD players were already available in the US for less then $300 dollars, so the PS2 wasn’t looked at as a cheap alternative to a DVD standalone.

The DVD feature of the PS2 could be taken advantage of by any TV. You need a 1080p TV to take full advantage of Blu-Ray or at least 720p to move past DVD quality. I don’t know what percentage of TVs currently in homes are HD capable. But I guess it far smaller than the percentage held by SDTVs. The PS3 essentially becomes a DVD-only, non-HiDef PS3 for SDTV users. One could make an argument that the DVD feature of PS3 will make a more compelling and attractive feature than Bluray.

However, consumers are fickle and respond to hype no matter how much they don’t know about a feature. Blu-Ray may be the defining feature that keeps Sony on top or a feature less attractive than the chrome finish, which you know for some superficial consumers will be the only reason they bought the 600 dollar version.

 

[crystalcube]

one of my friend was thinking of getting Xbox360 but now he is planning to get PS3 only. he is a casual gamer but is keen on video. His kids are active gamers though. So he was actually thinking that he will buy Xbox360 now and maybe later PS3 when the price stabilizes. Now he says he will give Xbox360 a skip and get PS3 instead.

I suppose there are many people who would just buy Xbox360 after hearing Ps3 price but there will many too like my friend who will rather "save" for PS3.

This is not an indication of anything but just an alternate view point.

 

[INKster]

Sony has a large interest in the high-margin HDTV tv set business as well.

I see the Playstation 3 as a means of, not only to bring with it a brand new optical format (royalties mostly flowing to Sony itself once it is fully established in the market), but also to stimulate other businesses, such as the aforementioned HDTV lines, and also (of course) to continue it's dominance in the console/videogaming market, by including online features for gaming, music and video content purchasing, etc.
These last three areas are traditional strong points for the company.
Neither MS nor Nintendo have them.


Honestly, although i don't own any modern console (not that compeling, to me at least), i think their market strategy will pay off in the long term.
I think analists and journalists are underestimating Sony...

 

[JasonLD]

I believe next-generation consoles(Xbox360 and PS3, not Wii) will help stimulate HDTV sales more than any other electronics device that utinizes HDTV. Then HDTV penetration gets higher and Hi-Def movie format becomes more attractive as people will start demanding movie formats that will fully utilize HDTV sets. Whenever that happens, PS3 can become hottest and most attractive piece of electronics you can buy..and that is exactly Sony is aiming with PS3.
We still don't know if Sony is hit the jackpot or time is still early for that kind of device, but I kinda like their chances because I think Blu-Ray will come out as a victor considering all the support from elecronics company and movie studios.

 

[mckmas8808]

I believe next-generation consoles(Xbox360 and PS3, not Wii) will help stimulate HDTV sales more than any other electronics device that utinizes HDTV. Then HDTV penetration gets higher and Hi-Def movie format becomes more attractive as people will start demanding movie formats that will fully utilize HDTV sets. Whenever that happens, PS3 can become hottest and most attractive piece of electronics you can buy..and that is exactly Sony is aiming with PS3.
We still don't know if Sony is hit the jackpot or time is still early for that kind of device, but I kinda like their chances because I think Blu-Ray will come out as a victor considering all the support from elecronics company and movie studios.

All of that sounds great if the movie studios don't charge too much for Blu-ray movies. I think $29.99 BDs aren't going to fly with most people.

 

[JasonLD]

All of that sounds great if the movie studios don't charge too much for Blu-ray movies. I think $29.99 BDs aren't going to fly with most people.

I think it will go down quickly than not...Amazon is already putting discount on HD movies that you can get them for $20 each...not really bad in my opinion

 

[mckmas8808]

Damn $20 is really good. I hope the stores sell them for no more than $25 then.

 

[wco81]

I think it will go down quickly than not...Amazon is already putting discount on HD movies that you can get them for $20 each...not really bad in my opinion

Yeah about the same prices as the HD-DVD movies, despite the cost-advantage HD-DVD has over Blu-Ray.

However, the real test is when they use 50 GB discs and load them up with extras and features and how those will be priced. I think the studios interested in such discs are like Disney, whose DVDs are among the most pricey.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the catalog discs -- older movies -- go down in price. Will you be able to get them like catalog DVDs for under $10?

 

[RobertR1]

What's the price difference of a BD dual sided media vs. a HD DVD dual sided. That should give up an indication of how much price difference there will be between the 2.

Another question I wonder is what Codecs will the PS3 player support? Right now the BD media is all Mpeg2 and will be for a while. Later down the road they'll use more advanced codecs such as VC1 or whatever Sony decides I suppose (currently being used in HD DVD). It'd be nice to get a bit more info on the actual Blu Ray player within the PS3.

 

[INKster]

What's the price difference of a BD dual sided media vs. a HD DVD dual sided. That should give up an indication of how much price difference there will be between the 2.

Another question I wonder is what Codecs will the PS3 player support? Right now the BD media is all Mpeg2 and will be for a while. Later down the road they'll use more advanced codecs such as VC1 or whatever Sony decides I suppose (currently being used in HD DVD). It'd be nice to get a bit more info on the actual Blu Ray player within the PS3.

I read somewhere that, since the codec's are mandatory for implementation *in the hardware*, any HD-DVD ou Blu-ray player will support MPEG-2, VC-1 and H.264.
The content itself may come encoded in MPEG-2 only at first (as a way to reduce costs, since most studios work with it now -albeit at 480p- for DVD's), but then switch to MPEG-4 based codec's once they are trully needed.

Another tidbit i've heard states that the DVD playing function within PS3 will have upscaling abilities, up to at least 720p and 1080i.
Again, there are low-price CE DVD players already on the market with that functionality built-in, like this one from Sony:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...f=pd_bbs_2/002-8593961-3816861?_encoding=UTF8

 

[Blazkowicz]

Yeah about the same prices as the HD-DVD movies, despite the cost-advantage HD-DVD has over Blu-Ray.

However, the real test is when they use 50 GB discs and load them up with extras and features and how those will be priced. I think the studios interested in such discs are like Disney, whose DVDs are among the most pricey.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the catalog discs -- older movies -- go down in price. Will you be able to get them like catalog DVDs for under $10?

the media cost is peanuts, I don't know exactly how are the prices but if pressing a HD-DVD costs 3 cents and pressing a BRD costs 5 cents for instance, we should never have to care. VHS is probably still the most expensive, yet VHS movies (if/where they still exist) are cheaper than DVD movies.

I'd like to know too about the older movies, even movies from before the War could have their HD release. an awful lot of movies can benefit from HD, one that comes to my mind is 2001 : Space Odyssey.

 

[AntShaw]

This is all well and good as long as BR becomes the standard HI-Def format.

It's to bad for us consumers that an industry wide standard couldn't of been settled before the consoles hit.

 

[nelg]

I guess central to my original question is at what point did DVD sales take off? Was it when they fell below $300, $250 or $200 and how long till we can expect the next gen HD players to reach that point?