The Next-gen Situation discussion *spawn

Yet I have a 720P phone with a 4.8" screen. And this looks much better than the same phone with a 800X480 screen.
What do you mean "yet"? Of course it does. That doesn't contradict anything I just said.
How do you measure what the eyes see as "image error"? I'm not entirely following you.
I explained the math in my original post. I don't think you followed it. Are you very good at math? Because if you aren't, I doubt I could explain it better. I might give it a try with some pictures, though.
There's going to be some point where we look at an X360 game and say "that looks like shit"
"Like shit" is not an objective measure...I've seen it used to refer to everything from 15-year-old 3D games to the very latest games run on a midrange graphics card. ;)
I'm also not sure you can "quantify" graphics, entirely.
They're already quantified, yes, entirely. Everything on your screen is a number. If you have sets of numbers, it's not hard to impose metrics on them.

I'm also not sure where you get the idea that current-gen consoles can't do 720p or struggle with it. Of course they easily have enough fill rate and memory space to render a 720p image. But this is a perfect example of diminishing returns. Developers and gamers have almost unanimously judged that the graphical gains from using the available fill rate to render at true 720p are less than the gains you get from rendering at a lower resolution with better lighting and other effects. Perhaps next gen, that won't be the case--perhaps the returns from extra effects and whatnot will be smaller than the returns from increasing the screen resolution.
 
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Yet I have a 720P phone with a 4.8" screen. And this looks much better than the same phone with a 800X480 screen. Rumors abound 1080P phones are the next step.

Hmm, so what res do I need to "max out" my 42" TV? Or my 27" PC monitor I'm sitting 18 inches from typing this? Which is a lowly 1080P?
Some of what you're seeing on your phone is resolution improvement, and some is rendering improvement. Try spot the pixels on an iPhone or a Galaxy SIII. You can't, because the pixels are too small, at the distance you're viewing, to resolve. The same for a 1080P TV. For a 50" TV, 6 feet or further away, you cannot resolve the pixels. Increasing the pixel density won't do anything except require more power to drive an image that won't be any different to your eyes.

Your PC monitor, on the other hand, may need a higher resolution to be too dense to resolve.

Once you've reached (to use Apple's term) retina resolution, the only gains you can still make in image quality are AA and better rendering and textures. Doubling the resolution (or more accurately, quadrupling the pixels) is effectively identical to 2xFSAA, but uses more memory, bandwidth, and GPU time.
 
Well, the way we render graphics today means different characteristics of the scene can directly influence our ability to reproduce it, as number of lights, geometry detail, material properties etc. The example of a car going down a road is a pretty easy one by now, and as all racing games still have lots to improve, I'd say they are one of the genres closest to completely fooling people.
 
What do you mean "yet"? Of course it does. That doesn't contradict anything I just said.

I went through the steps. You're trying to show a resolution diminishing returns, I'm saying we must be really far from it given my phone's PPI is much much higher than any TV's yet still showing improvement, major improvement, with increases.


I explained the math in my original post. I don't think you followed it. Are you very good at math? Because if you aren't, I doubt I could explain it better. I might give it a try with some pictures, though.

I mean I get what you're saying, vaguely enough. I think you're trying to say if we analyze image X, and then try to render it, and then compare the two mathematically, the error rapidly converges as you gain tech power.

I'm not sure it's all that valid to our discussion though. We're rendering moving images, not a static one, the former is exponentially harder because we have maybe 16ms in the case of a 60 FPS game to do it, and it has to be interactive. If we looked at any given current gen screenshot of in game gameplay, it will look really bad compared to a photo. Then there's the whole question of whether photorealism is as good as it gets or even what we are shooting for.

"Like shit" is not an objective measure...I've seen it used to refer to everything from 15-year-old 3D games to the very latest games run on a midrange graphics card.


Do you think the jump from lets say, NES to SNES, is greater than the jump from PS2 to X360? By your theory it must be.

I dont know that it clearly is (in fact I would probably lean to the latter jump as greater, SNES could be argued as a prettier NES or something rather than fundamental change), they are both equally massive jumps. so where's the diminishing returns? Not proven yet. They have not appeared in any generation of consoles yet. You state they will next gen. Ok, but that's unproven.

Obviously "like shit" must be a comparative term, not a general one here. The 15 year old 3D game looks much worse than the latest game on a midrange card, if we directly compare them.

They're already quantified, yes, entirely. Everything on your screen is a number. If you have sets of numbers, it's not hard to impose metrics on them.

Ahh, so finally you can settle the debate for me whether Killzone 3 or Crysis 2 has better graphics then? It's all objective after all. Also, can you give me a percentage for how much better Halo 4 looks than Killzone 2 (PS2) ? Thanks :p

I'm also not sure where you get the idea that current-gen consoles can't do 720p or struggle with it. Of course they easily have enough fill rate and memory space to render a 720p image. But this is a perfect example of diminishing returns. Developers and gamers have almost unanimously judged that the graphical gains from using the available fill rate to render at true 720p are less than the gains you get from rendering at a lower resolution with better lighting and other effects. Perhaps next gen, that won't be the case--perhaps the returns from extra effects and whatnot will be smaller than the returns from increasing the screen resolution.

Resolution vs effects is a tradeoff. Dev's dont have enough power to make 720P often, so they skew to the graphics side.

If we had "enough" power, eg, the returns from decreasing resolution weren't great enough, this wouldn't be an issue.

Let alone 1080P or 60 FPS, both which would require massively more power. Or 4K someday, requiring another huge bump.

It truly shows proof the graphics side is far from being maxed, otherwise all games would be 1080P 60 FPS today.

It's true we judged resolution to be a bigger improvement this gen, but I fail to see how that speaks to the returns. It speaks to a decision the games overall looked better at the higher resolution.

Somebody made the decision:

720P+less graphics=overall better visuals than > 480P+more graphics. This doesn't speak to diminishing returns at all imo. It speaks to "480P is a blurry mess, lets fix that first, albeit only with a jump to lowly 720p for now cus thats all we can afford".


Some of what you're seeing on your phone is resolution improvement, and some is rendering improvement. Try spot the pixels on an iPhone or a Galaxy SIII. You can't, because the pixels are too small, at the distance you're viewing, to resolve. The same for a 1080P TV. For a 50" TV, 6 feet or further away, you cannot resolve the pixels. Increasing the pixel density won't do anything except require more power to drive an image that won't be any different to your eyes.

Then why are people talking about 1080P phones and abuzz about Toshiba's recent demonstration of a (allegedly glorious) 55" 4k TV at some show or whatever?

To me it just stands to reason, lets take viewing distance away by comparing my PC monitor that I sit close to to my phone. If a 5" screen isn't maxed by 720P. what absurd resolution would be needed to get the same (desirable, clearly) PPI in a 27 monitor? I cant count that high.
 
I am wondering if $499 is going to be an acceptable price point for next generation consoles. At that price point, Sony and MS will be able to have powerful hardware as well as new control scheme.

I think it COULD be if anyone dared, but in reality I'm expecting a 299/399 split SKU thingy.

Probably like Wii U Deluxe edition the 399 skew will be a lot more desirable.

Too me it seems like 399 should be enough for your wishes though. Provided you dont expect PC top of the line hardware.
 
Some of what you're seeing on your phone is resolution improvement, and some is rendering improvement. Try spot the pixels on an iPhone or a Galaxy SIII. You can't, because the pixels are too small, at the distance you're viewing, to resolve.

I can still just see the artifacts caused by the pentile display in the GS3. The problem is small, especially compared to the GS1, which had absolutely terrifying crap of a display, but I still don't like that tech.
 
I can still just see the artifacts caused by the pentile display in the GS3. The problem is small, especially compared to the GS1, which had absolutely terrifying crap of a display, but I still don't like that tech.

Well,that's because of the PenTile display, you don't see artefacts on the iPhone Retina displays.
 
I went through the steps. You're trying to show a resolution diminishing returns,
Resolution does eventually reach the point of diminishing returns. The fact that phones aren't there yet doesn't prove it doesn't exist.
We're rendering moving images, not a static one
I specifically formulated the metric in terms of moving images. Since moving images on a screen are sequences of static images, you just have to add up the errors and normalize them. And of course frame rate is another place where really, doubling your pixel consumption to go from 30 to 60 is not nearly the jump in quality you get by going from 15 to 30. And going from 60 to 120 is just a waste when there are so many other things you could do with that fill rate.
If we looked at any given current gen screenshot of in game gameplay, it will look really bad compared to a photo.
Forza 4 doesn't.
Then there's the whole question of whether photorealism is as good as it gets or even what we are shooting for.
Photos are the easiest to conceptualize, but it should be pretty obvious that with other types of games, you'd need some way to compare it to the ideal. Like with a cartoon-style game, compare it to a high-resolution hand-animated sequence of the same thing.
Do you think the jump from lets say, NES to SNES, is greater than the jump from PS2 to X360? By your theory it must be...so where's the diminishing returns?
2D Platformers with cartoon-style graphics look pretty similar on the PS2 and the 360. They both display millions of colors, they both can run them at 60 fps, they both have no real limits on how many sprites can appear on screen, and they both are capable of doing just about any sprite effect the developer can imagine. The only real difference is screen resolution. The jump from the NES to the SNES was much larger. In that genre, returns began diminishing rapidly two generations ago with the PS1.

To compare "returns," you have to keep all else fixed. Let's say we scale our metric from 0 to 100, where 0 is "impossible" and 100 is "perfect." I'll make up numbers, but I imagine that this is what they'd look like for a variety of genres:

Genre / Atari / NES/ SNES/ PS1 / PS2 / Xbox 360
Cartoon platformer / 10 / 50 / 75 / 85 / 99 / 99.99
3D racing / 5 / 8 / 15 / 50 / 75 / 90
2D fighting / 5 / 25 / 60 / 80 / 99 / 99.99
3D fighting / 0 / 0 / 0 / 50 / 70 / 90 /
3D sandbox / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 45 / 65
3D Rail shooter / 0 / 5 / 25 / 50 / 85 / 90
Corridor FPS / 0 / 0 / 8 / 35 / 60 / 85
3D open-world RPG / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 35 / 60

In game types I've scored below 80, I expect huge leaps next-gen, comparable to huge leaps we've seen before, e.g., I expect the difference between current-gen Elder Scrolls games and next-gen to be every bit as big as the leap from Morrowind to Skyrim. But I do not expect 2D platformers to be observably different, and I don't expect the jump from current-gen Forza to next-gen Forza to be nearly so large as the jump from last-gen to this-gen, which was IMO smaller than the jump from GT2 to GT4.

Not proven yet. They have not appeared in any generation of consoles yet.
I think they've already appeared in pretty much every type of 2D game, and have already started to appear in a select few genres of 3D games. Every game type is on a different curve---one thing that happens as hardware improves is that we see all-new game types. But this is the first generation where we really haven't seen new types of games enabled by the hardware. That in itself is a form of diminishing returns.
 
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Who says phones aren't there yet?
The retina iPhones at least, at 326 ppi, certainly are.

Even with TVs 1080p is pretty much as good as your eyes are able to resolve at screen sizes under 50 inches at normal viewing distances.
4K will pretty much be as much resolution as you'd ever want (apart from cinema screens), even on outrageous 70 inch displays the pixel density will be higher than 1080p on a 40 inch display.
 
Even with TVs 1080p is pretty much as good as your eyes are able to resolve at screen sizes under 50 inches at normal viewing distances.
4K will pretty much be as much resolution as you'd ever want (apart from cinema screens), even on outrageous 70 inch displays the pixel density will be higher than 1080p on a 40 inch display.

Confused bystander here.

If 1080p is as good as my eyes can see under 50 inches at normal viewing distance why would I want 4K?
 
Confused bystander here.

If 1080p is as good as my eyes can see under 50 inches at normal viewing distance why would I want 4K?

You wouldn't, unless you want to sit closer than 6 feet to your set (or have better than 20/20 vision).

It's just that 4K is a future proof resolution format that will ensure that whatever the screen size content will look as good as it possibly can (with any more resolution increase offering negligible returns) and this will be true whether you're watching on a 70 inch TV or a Retina MacBook Pro.
As currently on either extremely large TVs or HiDPI computer screens 1080p content will not look as good as 4K, but for game consoles of which the vast majority are attached to either SDTVs or HD sets smaller than 50" then 1080p will be sufficient for next gen.
http://carltonbale.com/1080p-does-matter/
 
Resolution does eventually reach the point of diminishing returns. The fact that phones aren't there yet doesn't prove it doesn't exist.

I specifically formulated the metric in terms of moving images. Since moving images on a screen are sequences of static images, you just have to add up the errors and normalize them. And of course frame rate is another place where really, doubling your pixel consumption to go from 30 to 60 is not nearly the jump in quality you get by going from 15 to 30. And going from 60 to 120 is just a waste when there are so many other things you could do with that fill rate.

Forza 4 doesn't.

Photos are the easiest to conceptualize, but it should be pretty obvious that with other types of games, you'd need some way to compare it to the ideal. Like with a cartoon-style game, compare it to a high-resolution hand-animated sequence of the same thing.

2D Platformers with cartoon-style graphics look pretty similar on the PS2 and the 360. They both display millions of colors, they both can run them at 60 fps, they both have no real limits on how many sprites can appear on screen, and they both are capable of doing just about any sprite effect the developer can imagine. The only real difference is screen resolution. The jump from the NES to the SNES was much larger. In that genre, returns began diminishing rapidly two generations ago with the PS1.

To compare "returns," you have to keep all else fixed. Let's say we scale our metric from 0 to 100, where 0 is "impossible" and 100 is "perfect." I'll make up numbers, but I imagine that this is what they'd look like for a variety of genres:

Genre / Atari / NES/ SNES/ PS1 / PS2 / Xbox 360
Cartoon platformer / 10 / 50 / 75 / 85 / 99 / 99.99
3D racing / 5 / 8 / 15 / 50 / 75 / 90
2D fighting / 5 / 25 / 60 / 80 / 99 / 99.99
3D fighting / 0 / 0 / 0 / 50 / 70 / 90 /
3D sandbox / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 45 / 65
3D Rail shooter / 0 / 5 / 25 / 50 / 85 / 90
Corridor FPS / 0 / 0 / 8 / 35 / 60 / 85
3D open-world RPG / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 35 / 60

In game types I've scored below 80, I expect huge leaps next-gen, comparable to huge leaps we've seen before, e.g., I expect the difference between current-gen Elder Scrolls games and next-gen to be every bit as big as the leap from Morrowind to Skyrim. But I do not expect 2D platformers to be observably different, and I don't expect the jump from current-gen Forza to next-gen Forza to be nearly so large as the jump from last-gen to this-gen, which was IMO smaller than the jump from GT2 to GT4.


I think they've already appeared in pretty much every type of 2D game, and have already started to appear in a select few genres of 3D games. Every game type is on a different curve---one thing that happens as hardware improves is that we see all-new game types. But this is the first generation where we really haven't seen new types of games enabled by the hardware. That in itself is a form of diminishing returns.


So youre ranking the 360 as 90-99.99% as good as it gets for many genres?? I find that pretty crazy.

What would you call Crysis 3 PC? I dont think anything on 360 looks 75% as good as that even. I dont know whether you'd call that a corridor FPS.

I'd also be strongly hesitant to say racing games are at 90%. For example, the trackside grass in Forza looks pretty bad.

Suffice it to say I think a LOT of those percentages are going to look pretty silly when we start seeing next gen games in earnest. In fact I'll bookmark your post in hopes of getting back to it in a few months :p

I mean, these debates are weird. At the same time there are debates along the lines of "PC ports are now so far ahead of consoles, we're really reaching that point where next consoles are needed" or something like that.

I mean to mention, I see improvement even in 2D this gen. Can you point to a PS2 game that looks as good as Dust Elysian Tale or Deadlight?

I dont see a 2D PS2 game that will pull off the intricate effects and animation Tale has, and it's a 2D game (also made by like 2 guys)! Leaving aside it'll also look much better for being 720P, just as future 2D games will in 1080P and someday again in 4K.

But I did notice you ducked my numerical better graphics questions :p

Here's a Forza 4 screen, it does look pretty good, but still leaves much desired versus a photo http://cache.kotaku.com/assets/images/9/2011/10/c2.jpg

Here's a photo of a car in a track from behind to compare (it was hard to find a photo from behind car so it's not the best but anyway) http://image.moparmusclemagazine.co...h_barracuda_bracket_race_car+at_the_track.jpg

If you compare the two I think there's easily at least one generation of difference there (which is kind of scary to my point of view, that that may be all there is, so you may be more right than I wish to admit)

Here's Uncharted 3, once again very far from a photo, and I think far from 90%.

http://assets1.ignimgs.com/2011/10/...-than-hollywood-20111006091448101-3537072.jpg

I did kind of look for a "bad" uncharted pic, but still, most current gen real gameplay screen will look pretty bad compared to a photo. If you're careful to avoid photo mode screens in driving games, bullshots, cutscenes, non gameplay angles, and the like.
 
So youre ranking the 360 as 90-99.99% as good as it gets for many genres?? I find that pretty crazy.
I find it pretty crazy to think that the next generation will offer the kind of huge graphical leap in 2D graphics that we haven't seen for a long time now. The only thing that's changed in a decade is the screen resolution and the aspect ratio. Regarding that 2D game video you posted, yeah, there's probably an effect here and there that's not really possible on last-gen hardware, but "an effect here and there" is exactly the kind of marginal improvement you end up talking about when you're in the "diminishing returns" phase (I wasn't impressed by the heavy particle effects--that was completely possible last gen). The jump from Odin Sphere, Alien Hominid, and Muramasa to DET is little more than screen resolution and a few effects, nowhere near the jump from, say, Contra 1 to Contra III. Or Double Dragon II to Streets of Rage 3. Or Gradius (NES) to Thunder Force IV (Genesis).

That other game you posted uses 3D graphics.
What would you call Crysis 3 PC? I dont think anything on 360 looks 75% as good as that even. I dont know whether you'd call that a corridor FPS.
From the footage I've seen of Crysis 3, there are areas of Crysis 2 I'd say look 75% as good. Easily. The jump from 360 Crysis 2 to PC Crysis 3 is certainly nowhere near as large as the jump from, say, the SNES version of Doom to Perfect Dark.
I'd also be strongly hesitant to say racing games are at 90%. For example, the trackside grass in Forza looks pretty bad.
That kind of proves my point. Better-looking trackside grass is not the kind of dramatic, global improvement we've seen from generation to generation. Most of the global things are done correctly now. The lighting looks physically correct, there are very few visible polygon edges, there's very little texture pixelation, the overall coloration matches reality pretty well, etc. Trackside grass is a small-scale detail. It's a thing, yes, but not nearly on the scale of, say, going from nearest-neighbor sampling to bilinear filtering, or going from flat shading to phong shading, or going from SDR to HDR lighting, or going from thousands to millions of polygons in a scene, or going from simple texturing to texture + normal + specular. If you drive around the track from a cockpit view instead of parking on the median so you can stare at the grass, the differences between a current-gen driving sim and real-life footage are, in my opinion (and depending on the game, track, and cars), not much bigger, possibly smaller, than the difference between current-gen sims and last-gen sims.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIDE58RRzmU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9s_G1ph_vA&feature=related

Here's a problem with this discussion: You are treating the term "diminishing returns" as equivalent to "no returns." That's not what the term actually means. It doesn't mean, "there is no visible improvement at all;" it means, "the overall improvement you get is smaller than it was last time." And that's what you'd expect from any kind of converging sequence. Or if you stick to Grand Prix games, consider these jumps:

Virtua Racing (Genesis) > F1 '99 (PS1) > F1 '06 (PS2) > F1 Champ. Ed. (PS3)

Impose any measure you want, the hugest jump is by far the first one, and the first game is kind of cheating by having a fancy new 3D chip on the cartridge...and if you want an even bigger jump, we could put the NES F1 Racing game at the beginning. :D
 
fearsomepirate, I'm enjoying the discussion, and do agree with most of your arguments, though you are putting it better than I probably would myself. I also like how you proposed an objective metric to compare graphical improvements.
There are two things I would like to point out though.
One, is that quality is not the only area of improvement, but also quantity. I image next gen games might improve by having more stuff on screen. Again, not all genres will benefit as not every game will need scenes with 1000s of npcs, but the ones that do need will benefit.
Secondly, when we are dangerously close to the uncany valley, small improvements can make a huge difference.
 
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