Thanks for this thread!
Shifty,
You mentioned DriveClub as a game close to CGI when seeing it from the rain. I have DC and it doesn't even make me feel it's anywhere close to CGI for a variety of reasons:
1) The resolutions destroys the illusion. There is simply too much aliasing going on despite the very good lighting in the game.
2) The geometry is a HUGE limitation in games that I don't see any dev trying to solve. No matter how complicated the shaders/textures become, the illusion will be destroyed by lack of properly tessellated surfaces.
3) Shadows are too low res. This is another detractor in all games that needs improvement.
4) Reflections are very inaccurate and too low res. SSR has become very popular of late, but it's still years and years before it even looks like something we see in CGI.
5) Interior driving in DC completely breaks the illusion of CGI with the cockpit textures/shading and the hands, dashboard, mirrors, etc...
Here is a look at one of the best renderers in offline rendering for cars. Absolutely no other company can make such an impressive suite of tools for rendering CGI cars. Hopefully you can compare this footage with that of DC to see all of it's flaws.
Also, there is a lot of complexity that goes into a car paint shader. It's very subtle but important:
Notice the area light specular, flakes, and variation in diffuse colors -- none of which are on any of the cars in DC.