The console losses discussion thread (or 'how companies blow billions on products')*

What are you comparing to ? The general concept of writeoffs is the same independent of the company. The specific line items may have very different implications to the business.

If you're talking about the 360 $1b writeoffs. it's a needlessly large expense. I don't think you will find similar trait in Sony's 3.1b losses. "Normally", they should both just include the losses due to R&D and cost of sales (selling below cost).

If you're talking about MS's general losses as a whole, they'd be similar to SCE's; although I'd love to know where Sony attribute their PSN, Cell and Blu-ray costs.
 
So we're not in agreement, and you're back to taking a position that Sony's losses are somehow different than MS's because you assume that Sony was aware and/or planned for these losses and MS didn't.

Or, that Sony's losses are somehow different than MS's because you are assuming that Sony's losses were unavoidable and MS's were?

It's also clear that your position also defines the difference between the losses based on your assumptions as somehow superior or better for Sony.

The losses are simply no different from an accounting stand point. Your continued attempts to promote them as different based upon assumptions that aren't universally agreed upon facts are highly dubious.
 
What are you comparing to ? The general concept of writeoffs is the same independent of the company. The specific line items may have very different implications to the business.

If you're talking about the 360 $1b writeoffs. it's a needlessly large expense. I don't think you will find similar trait in Sony's 3.1b losses. "Normally", they should both just include the losses due to R&D and cost of sales (selling below cost).

If you're talking about MS's general losses as a whole, they'd be similar to SCE's; although I'd love to know where Sony attribute their PSN, Cell and Blu-ray costs.

MS's write off in theory is no different than Sony's 3.1 billion in losses in terms of investment. MS is investing 1 billion to ensure that cost associated with extending the warranty so that the average time of ownership of a 360 user isn't as drastically reduced by the RROD if the warranty had remained only for 1 year.

One major difference between the two costs is that Sony losses are restricted to fiscal year 06 and 07 while MS faced incurring costs associated with the extended warranty for the life of the 360 with each losses being negatively reflected on all future quarterly earnings. MS wrote off the 1 billion dollars so those cost are restricted to last fiscal year. The write off allowed MS to take 1 billion dollars off the books which is currently being used to finance the cost of RROD issue without it being reflected in current and future earnings.

Basically Sony's 3.1 billion in losses were to get the PS3 in users' hands while MS's 1 billion in losses in regards to the write off are to keep the 360 in users' hand. They still both investments. There is nothing needlessly expensive about MS's writeoff, unless you figure that extending the warranty to three years is useless in terms of helping extend the life of the 360 in the hands of users who have been affected by the RROD.
 
The losses are simply no different from an accounting stand point. Your continued attempts to promote them as different based upon assumptions that aren't universally agreed upon facts are highly dubious.

I don't know about all the assumptions you stated in your posts but given 2 reports: one with a $1b writeoff (akin to 360's) and one with a $1b investment in facilities/products (and everything else is the same), most people would be interested to know the prospect of the latter, and try to avoid the former situation -- without my (or your) posts.

From bookkeeping perspective, they are all just money in, out and balanced.
 
The losses are simply no different from an accounting stand point. Your continued attempts to promote them as different based upon assumptions that aren't universally agreed upon facts are highly dubious.

Well one billion invested in a production line versus one billion "invested" in covering faulty components may look like the same on paper (minus one billion) But i think that the production line should have a little better used value compared to the repair services...
 
What are you comparing to ? The general concept of writeoffs is the same independent of the company. The specific line items may have very different implications to the business.

Im saying that there is no difference between what the companies are doing. All MS have done is essentially put aside money in order to be able to have a 3 year warranty. There is no law against that, neither are they trying to manipulate anything. They treat the 3 year warranty as an investment (and they should, it was not initially planned for, and was an last minute effort in stopping the public from fearing the X360 RRoD issue.

All this does, is giving the X360\Microsoft gaming divisions a potential to be more "book" profitable next year, because warranty costs are allready accounted for, and enlighting the finance market about warranty costs. Nothing terrible going on here, its not like anyone who has any real interest in reading financial reports from companies isn't reading all ticket\public annoucements that is significant to the books.

They are not hiding the costs or anything, Microsoft did what any other company in such a situation should do. They annouced in a public annoucement, that the X360 now has a 3 year warranty and what not, and that the costs of this is estimated to be 1 billion. That prevented potential stockholders\current stockholders to have to speculate in the X360 RRoD. No harm done. Its not like stockholders are going to forget the 1 billion loss this year for any relevant period of time (lifetime span of a console isn't exactly long, the finance market will remember the 1billion reported loss longer than the console will last).

If you're talking about the 360 $1b writeoffs. it's a needlessly large expense.

Its the estimated cost of increasing the warranty by 2 years. How would you account for it? This way atleast they are using the signal theories like they should, by putting money where they mouth is to prevent market speculation.

I don't think you will find similar trait in Sony's 3.1b losses. "Normally", they should both just include the losses due to R&D and cost of sales (selling below cost).

No they shouldn't. There is a reason for why big companies have big accounting departments, because you can legally do tons of things. R&D costs, which really only are sunk costs by now, can actually have a large book value still, if the firm wishes to do so. Sony attributes book value to a lot of things, just like any other firm, thats speculating on future expenses\earings aswell. How is that different?
 
Seems to me the nature of MS and Sony's bookkeeping isn't really a topic for the console board. Both have had big amounts of money leave their bank accounts in order to produce these console platforms. The particulars of accounting techniques and naming conventions isn't going to change that, nor provide any real insight into Sony's strategies.

At this juncture I say the current pastu/Ostepop et al discussion should be left as is and the thread either returned to normal service or quietly left to fade away in favour of more recent discussion.
 
At this juncture I say the current pastu/Ostepop et al discussion should be left as is and the thread either returned to normal service or quietly left to fade away in favour of more recent discussion.

I would disagree with your conclusion because Patsu clearly is attempting to demonstrate that Sony's losses are somehow different than MS's losses, when they are actuarial the same.

And his entire foundation for his perspective is that Sony's losses are due to Cell and BR promotion (that should be considered investments rather than losses) while MS's losses are entirely due to failures in management or foresight, or whatever.

Those are exactly the assumptions that I've been referring to.

One of MS's primary strategic initiatives this generation was to be the first to launch. Who is to say that they'd didn't understand there would be a cost involved in launching first, that they didn't already account for when they made that decision?

Unless it's clear that MS didn't understand that sacrificing QA for launching earliest, you can't put their losses on any different level than Sony's who understood that they were going to take losses for launching a product at a significantly higher price than what would normally be accepted.

That's why I continue to harp on the assumptions.

So, I'll put forth my own assumptions since that seems to be so readily accepted as a viable means of discussion.

MS: Knew they were giving up QA to a certain degree and willingly did so in order to gain the benefit of launching first.

Sony: Knew they were launching at a higher price point but did so knowing that they were delivering an overall superior product.

I think reality shows that MS underestimated their losses due to manufacturing issues, and that Sony overestimated the amount of sales they would receive from launching at a higher price point.

The bottom line is that BOTH have significant losses, BOTH have written them off as expenses and the loss that MS decided to 'write off' is no different than the loss that Sony has incurred.

The only difference might be that when MS made the decision to 'write off' costs, they did so acknowledging future year losses while Sony did not.

If anything, the end result is that MS's "write off" fully encompassed the entire life cycle of the 360 (those that were manufactured prior to the "adjustment"/"Correction"/"whatever you want to call it"), while Sony has so far only posted their losses for the current year.

The idea that Patsu continually keeps promoting that Sony's losses somehow represent an "investment" while MS's don't because of the motivation behind the losses is just rather absurd.

Sure, Sony's losses on the PS3 are due in large part to their desire to promote both the BR and Cell. But the R&D costs of development are NOT included in these losses.

MS's losses are due in large part because of their desire to get to market first, and to establish the Xbox as the primary portal of digital content distribution.

So.. In essence, their motivations are similar and really shouldn't be up for discussion when we're talking about bottom line figures.

The 360 cost MS more than they expected, but reality dictates that they spent that money by launching early.

The PS3 cost Sony more than they expected, but reality dictates that they spent that money on BR and Cell.

That's why I say the attempts to say that MS's losses are somehow different than Sony's losses are exercises in bias.

Unless you know For a Fact that MS didn't believe that launching early would cost them money, you simply can't make the statements and arrive at the conclusions that Patsu is doing.

I simply don't see how anybody can believe that Sony made decisions to include BR and Cell and acknowledge the potential losses, and then turn around and say that MS didn't understand the QA problems that they might have from launching early when their entire strategy was based upon launching early.

I think it's pretty clear that the deficits exceeded both of what MS and Sony expected.

But I don't see how anybody can come to the conclusion that Patsu did that Sony's losses are somehow offset and MS's are not.

IMO, the value of MS launching earlier is so obvious it smacks you in the face.

Even factoring in their 'write off's', it was a gamble that paid vast dividends for MS because the 'Playstation' is no longer the dominate console.

The very report that we are discussing outlines how Sony will never recover the costs involved with the PS3, and how Sony will only profit through peripheral revenue streams such as BR. If they do at all.

To say, as Patsu has said repeatedly, that Sony's losses were planned for and somehow superior to MS's that weren't, requires an assumption that MS didn't understand there was a cost involved in launching first.

IMO, MS clearly understood that there was a cost involved in launching first, but that they did it anyway because the cost/benefit ratio was in their favor.

And reality dictates that even with the tremendous write-offs they've had to sustain (which I agree, they didn't expect to this degree), the benefits have still outweighed the cost.

Why doesn't anybody understand that MS had the option to launch LATER after a more thorough QA process, but they decided that delaying the launch would cost them more than launching a year later with no warranty issues?

MS made the decision to launch early without an intense QA process because launching early was the most important thing to them and it was WORTH the 'write offs' due to failure of the QA process.

I don't really understand how anybody who understands accounting can make a difference between the losses of MS and Sony unless they have a specific bias that they are trying to demonstrate.

Sony knowingly took losses because they wanted to facilitate cell and BR adoption.

MS knowingly took losses because they wanted to facilitate 360 adoption because their primary focus is on revenue streams from digital distribution.

Neither loss is greater or less than the other.

The losses are what they are. The reasons behind the losses aren't exactly cloudy.
 
RancidLunchmeat, this is nonsense. Nobody tests a console for a year before launching, and that's what MS would have had to do if they were to discover this issue.

Q&A had little to do with it. If it was an identifiable problem, then MS would have fixed it way before summer 07. It wasn't even fixed before the PS3 launch, so you can't say launching early is what caused it.

This was a very unusual problem with failure characteristics that defied typical failure behaviour for CE devices. That's why it the extent of the issue didn't show up until well over a year, and why it had the unusual solution of an extended warranty. A write-off makes a lot of sense here, because it's similar to a recall.

For Sony, they pretty much planned those losses all along. If, as you claim, Sony overestimated sales, then they planned on losing even more on hardware losses, unless you expect me to believe that despite PS3's high price, Sony planned to sell it at an even higher price point. I don't think so...
 
RancidLunchMeat, since the mods didn't want to continue on this subject, I'll be brief.

And his entire foundation for his perspective is that Sony's losses are due to Cell and BR promotion (that should be considered investments rather than losses) while MS's losses are entirely due to failures in management or foresight, or whatever.

(i) The 3.1b number is Sony's LTD losses for PS3. Naturally, it will include (some) Cell and Blu-ray related expense. In fact, it will also include customer support cost, but this should be relatively small.

(ii) MS's $1b losses (a subset of their LTD losses) is directly and solely attributed to the 360 design problem. This is acknowledged by MS executives. MS's LTD losses for 360 is something else.

While I'm at it... Yes, Ostepop, I did forget to include asset calculation in my "ideal" scenario. Thanks for correcting me (It was in my last post that was deleted :) )
 
Patsu, all I can say is you mustn't be involved in financials at any large company if you're sitting here trying to convince people that the 3.1B loss is fine, but the 1B loss is bad. I'd love for you to meet my CFO some time ;)
 
RancidLunchmeat, this is nonsense. Nobody tests a console for a year before launching, and that's what MS would have had to do if they were to discover this issue.

Q&A had little to do with it. If it was an identifiable problem, then MS would have fixed it way before summer 07. It wasn't even fixed before the PS3 launch, so you can't say launching early is what caused it.

WHAT?

The hardware failures of the 360 were evident almost IMMEDIATELY upon launch.

Where do you get the idea that it required a YEAR in order to determine the design flaws?

There was CLEARLY a design flaw with launch 360s and those design flaws would have been readily apparent had there been a normal amount of QA in the process.

The reason that the 360s launched with their hardware failure rate wasn't because it was something that wasn't able to be determined until a year's worth of service.

The 360s were launched with their manufacturing flaws because QA was sacrificed because launching EARLY at 80% or 75% or 70% or 50% was more important than delaying the launch at 90% or 95%.

Again, the above statement is an assumption on my part, but it's not greater than the assumptions that Patsu is making in his claims.

Your statement that design flaws weren't apparent in the 360 design until a year's worth of use are just patently incorrect. Consumers reported RROD failures within months of purchase... it's all over the web, I don't really think I need to provide all the numerous links in order to support this fact.

The only question, really, is whether or not MS KNEW and was AWARE the lack of QA when they launched the console.

Patsu's position is apparently that MS was completely unaware of this, so the resulting cost took them completely by surprise.

IMO, this is an ASSUMPTION on his part that has no basis in fact.

It could actually be correct, but we have no information to confirm it.

A completely realistic scenario could also be that MS willingly sacrificed QA standards in order to get their product to market sooner in order to get the jump on market share.

And, when we look at reality the jump on market share is what has put MS and the 360 in a position that has undermined Sony and the PS3 and essentially resulted in a majority of their losses.

My point being is that who is to say that MS didn't KNOW and make a strategic decision that the 360s they put to market early weren't going to have a significant failure rate? Who is to say that MS didn't understand they would have to 'write-off' a certain expense because of warranty and replacement issues, but that they decided it was worth it to realize that expense in order to get their console on the market sooner?

Patsu is working under the impression that Sony realized their console was 1) overpriced and 2) a loss leader for cell and BD adoption and so therefore, it's OK that they've lost $4B on its implementation.

Also, that somehow, MS didn't understand or expect that the 360 was going to have hardware failures and need to be replaced.

My point is... How do we know that?

What if MS did know that they had sacrificed QA in order to launch early?

I've already said, that I agree, that MS most certainly didn't realize the EXTENT of the QA failure.

But this isn't MS's first journey into the world of hardware. I think they DID realize they were sacrificing QA for an earlier launch date, they just didn't understand the extreme nature of the sacrifice.

Regardless, MS making that sacrifice is no different than Sony making a similar sacrifice because of BD or Cell promotion.

So when Patsu says that somehow the losses of MS are different than the losses of Sony, I find a problem with that.

Sony's losses are the result of things that are clearly evident and I think we can all agree on them.

But Patsu is putting forth the idea that MS was caught completely unawares by their manufacturing flaws with the 360, and I think that's a completely silly idea.

The flaws with the launch 360s aren't something that required a year's worth of use in order to flesh out.

They were evident almost immediately. They were a result of a lack of QA.

And you can either believe that MS was completely unaware that QA is an important part of hardware design, or you can believe that MS is/was aware, but decided that launching at a "lower-than-normally-accepted-level" was worth it for them because they needed to launch first.

I have a VERY difficult time believing that MS was caught completely unaware by the failure rate of the 360.

I don't have a difficult time believing that MS was caught unaware by the EXTENT of the failure rate of the 360.

But those two statements are vastly different.
 
You forgot the Rumor: part in the front of the Formula 1 article.

Oops. :oops:

"Earlier this month [May 2008] Codemasters secured the exclusive rights to produce Formula One videogames in an agreement that will see the company develop a new generation of the multi-million selling franchise across multiple platforms. We caught up with Codemasters CEO Rod Cousens to discover a little of what the future holds for the millions of would-be Formula One drivers eager to take on the likes of Raikkonen and Hamilton..." – The Official Formula 1 Website
 
I have a VERY difficult time believing that MS was caught completely unaware by the failure rate of the 360.

I don't have a difficult time believing that MS was caught unaware by the EXTENT of the failure rate of the 360.

But those two statements are vastly different.

It's probably a combination of the two. :oops:

Given their priority was to get to market first, Microsoft did not have a lot of time to thoroughly debug components, let alone an entire system:

At a silicon review meeting, Todd Holmdahl opened with, "Happy New Year everyone. Welcome to launch year." There were groans around the table. The statement's gravity sunk in with Bill Adamec.

Fortunately, IBM had completed its final tape-out on the PowerPC microprocessor on Jan. 31. IBM was ready to start debugging its factories and the chip itself in preparation for high-volume manufacturing.

The ATI graphics chip, however, wasn't finished yet. Hagen's team made changes to fix the known bugs in the graphics chip. They sent it back to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. factory and they got the chip back in January. They had to run a huge suite of tests, using a few hundred computers, to make sure they didn't introduce a new bug. But they had not yet found a solution for the most difficult bug. The chip locked up and failed to work under certain conditions. Although the ATI team could extract data about every piece of the chip at the instant that it froze, the information didn't help them. They had to start writing tests to zero in on the problem. On daily calls with Microsoft, they referred to the problem as a "phenomenon".

Then the engineers isolated the bug. Two logical functions happened in sequence, one after another. Most of the time, they worked fine. But once in a while, the clock in the chip fell victim to electrical noise. It would jitter,or pause long enough to cause a delay. That delay was long enough to insert itself between the two logical functions. When that happened, the chip failed. Hagen said it was hard to find because the jitter was an analog problem, occurring a couple of levels of abstraction below where the digital engineers were looking for it. In about February, ATI submitted the solution for the flaw. They revised the logical data in the design and drew up plans for another chip. TSMC began working on it.

"This was not something that showed up in the tests," Hagen said. "We had to noodle it out."

If the ATI engineers had been caught in an endless search for the bug, the consequences could have affected the entire program. The game developers needed a new set of development kits to make further progress on developing their launch titles. Instead of getting a final chip in the spring, Microsoft was going to get another prototype. To make sure that Microsoft could use those prototypes in machines for developers, the team in Mountain View had to figure out a way to fix the problem. Neil McCarthy, Microsoft engineer, figured out that he could create a one-time "metal spin." That is, he would alter the top layers of electrical wiring on the chip for the next prototype only. By doing so, he could make the chips functional enough for the game developers.

"He single-handedly saved the program," said Bill Adamec, the Microsoft graphics chip program manager. – The Xbox 360 Uncloaked: The Real Story Behind Microsoft’s Next-Generation Video Game Console
 
RancidLunchMeat, since the mods didn't want to continue on this subject, I'll be brief.

First, let me say that both of us have been contributors on this forum for a number of years and as long as we don't violate any of the rules of the forum, I really don't care what 'the mods' might think.

Second, let me say that I understand exactly what Shifty was talking about and I think this conversation is unquestionably within the guidelines of what is acceptable for this forum.

Now... On to your specific pointsL

(i) The 3.1b number is Sony's LTD losses for PS3. Naturally, it will include (some) Cell and Blu-ray related expense. In fact, it will also include customer support cost, but this should be relatively small.

No, actually it should not. Cell and BD R&D should be booked as assets on Sony's financials.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, these are losses. Whether the money is paid to another division internally, that is no different than the fact that MS has to pay money to IBM to their chipset.

(ii) MS's $1b losses (a subset of their LTD losses) is directly and solely attributed to the 360 design problem. This is acknowledged by MS executives. MS's LTD losses for 360 is something else.

I don't really know where you're trying to go here, but I do think that this is probably the key point of the entire discussion.

So let me clarify: Ummm...... SO??

Are you trying to say that because Sony has so many more divisions to spread their costs across than MS that it somehow makes it better for Sony?

Even if that were that case, that completely disregards all the factual information I've provided in the previous messages.

Honestly, I appreciate the intellectual exercise that you've presented, but reality shows that your sole purpose is trying to narrow the defined parameters.

I'm still having a hard time understanding your position because reality seems to dictate that MS launched a console that they knew wasn't ready to be launched, yet did so anyway because...WHY?

It seems to me that it's very obvious, and that's why we're having this discussion, that MS made the decision to launch a flawed console anyway, because launching first was more important than waiting and launching correct.
 
No, actually it should not. Cell and BD R&D should be booked as assets on Sony's financials.

The Cell and Blu-ray associated BOM cost should be here since they are part of the PS3 SKU.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, these are losses. Whether the money is paid to another division internally, that is no different than the fact that MS has to pay money to IBM to their chipset.

I did not say they are different ? In fact, I don't see where this is going. I do think increasingly that may be this thread should be pruned.

I don't really know where you're trying to go here, but I do think that this is probably the key point of the entire discussion.

So let me clarify: Ummm...... SO??

Are you trying to say that because Sony has so many more divisions to spread their costs across than MS that it somehow makes it better for Sony?

Even if that were that case, that completely disregards all the factual information I've provided in the previous messages.

Honestly, I appreciate the intellectual exercise that you've presented, but reality shows that your sole purpose is trying to narrow the defined parameters.

I'm still having a hard time understanding your position because reality seems to dictate that MS launched a console that they knew wasn't ready to be launched, yet did so anyway because...WHY?

It seems to me that it's very obvious, and that's why we're having this discussion, that MS made the decision to launch a flawed console anyway, because launching first was more important than waiting and launching correct.

Don't understand. The number is provided by MS. I used the number to indicate hardware cost may not be negligible and even though MS has suffered from the $1b losses (as an example of what standing ovation coined as "bad execution" and "unrecoverable losses"), it says nothing about their content strategy.
 
It's probably a combination of the two. :oops:

Don't you get how it can't possibly be a combination of the two?

MS either realized the failures or they didn't.

There's no in between.

What you've just shown is that they expected there would be a certain level of between.

But that's the same thing.

If anything, what you've provided is more evidence that if MS wasn't well aware of their hardware failures they were well aware of the potential of their hardware failures.

Which only reinforces my point.

These expenses didn't take MS by surprise. They EXPECTED them. The only surprise was the EXTENT of the expenses.

Please... Let's all get real.

MS KNEW they were launching early with NEXT-GEN tech. They KNEW they were going to suffer problems as a result of that.

MS did NOT expect the problems to be as significant as they were.

But MS's losses on the 360 are in NO WAY different than Sony's losses on the PS3.

Just because Sony expects to make this money up through cell or BD revenue, MS expects to make this money up through digital content distribution.

Now, whether either of them actually do recover these costs.. well, that's a different discussion.
 
The Cell and Blu-ray associated BOM cost should be here since they are part of the PS3 SKU.

Uh.. and? The Cell and BD associated BOM costs aren't even close to what we're talking about.

Hell, the BOM costs of BD aren't even paid for by stand alone players at this point.

What exactly is your point?
 
Rancid, the one sentence per line posting style... please no! :p

Anyway this whole argument I think has gone to another dimension of minutiae in terms of what's being discussed. There are some things that could be reconciled though, if only for the sake of a consensus of terms if nothing else.

I think there are two very valid ideas at play in this whole back-and-forth; the idea of expenses as an umbrella class, and the idea of extraordinary charges. Yes, an extraordinary charge is an expense like all the rest, but at the same time it is by its very nature 'extraordinary,' and as such outside the scope of the standard expense predictions/expectations for any given line item when creating a business plan.

I believe that MS was aware that there was a potential bugbear lurking in the shadows in terms of the 360 hardware as the launch approached, but I also believe they learned of the issue too late in the game... late enough that they would have been forced to either delay the launch at considerable PR and monetary expense after much preparation, or they could roll the dice and hope for the best. When everything's said and done, the $1 billion charge they took was premised on a number of factors:

1) They wanted to clear this loss-generator from the books in a forward fashion to allow for the otherwise profitable nature of the XBox operations to be visible in future financial reports.

2) Proactive warranty extension would help to turn a page in the public perception of the console and its reliability.

3) $1 billion extraordinary warranty-related charge of today might avoid the extraordinary $2 billion class action charge of tomorrow.

As I wrote back then, I definitely think MS handled it correctly. Now... should they have launched in the first place having (potentially) realized the issue? Well, probably yes. Granted we have to consider that the $1 billion is not the actual extent of the losses here; that charge didn't account for losses related to warranty servicing already accrued up until that point. But even then, assuming arbitrarily $1.5 billion for previous charges and possible overages to the billion $ set-aside, because of the way they had positioned themselves for the launch a delay and/or redesign could have wrecked their entire pre-launch strategy and ecosystem. Better to ask forgiveness than permission as they say. Fact is that MS was struck by terrible luck by finding themselves in a catch-22 situation. Caveat emptor for them I guess; I have a feeling that the next XBox will not skimp at all on materials and component sourcing/testing. The thermals of the system were just plain risky from the outset - too much effort spent towards pursuing their pre-launch aesthetic ideal. Anyone remember all those focus-group based bullet points?

Back in Sony-land, the drama is of a different flavor. Firstly where MS found themselves in the unexpected bind of fault-prone hardware, Sony found themselves in the bind of trailing BD development, and thus more costly BD inclusion. Not to mention the thing was just plain expensive anyway due to other factors. So... the grind of heavy loss-per-unit began, and in a year and a half it ground down what I arbitrarily call at ~$4 billion. Now within this is a whole lot of opaque R&D costs, cross-divisional load sharing... all sorts of stuff we can't see clearly into. But at the end of the day we know that the meat of these losses are related to the manufacturing costs of these units.

In a sense the original tenor of this thread was in relation to these losses as either justifiable or not in the context of Blu-ray's victory, but we'll ignore that outright here for the moment.

The point's been raised about Sony's sales trailing initial expectations, and definitely this had an effect. The problem here was in some ways the opposite of MS' issue; parts that worked, sure, and a supply chain that had been set up and ramped to deliver components into a production line that had expected much higher demand in the post-launch timeframe. People have made the logically valid point before that had Sony sold more, they would have lost more. It's completely logical on the surface, but the fact is that Sony was still building these units at the clip that was premised on their forward estimates, and these launch units as we know are the most expensive for the manufacturer.

So what happened was that for every PS3 not sold at retail produced during that initial production run - of which there were a couple million - you had a lot of units that ended up not only not realizing the initial expected loss, but being victim to an inventory write-down when Sony eventually did begin to cost-reduce... and cut the price for legacy units in the process. (window to the past) That was over half-a-billion in *extra* loss right there from simply not having been able to meet prior sales expectations, and having been reduced to a lower retail price point.

Both companies have had hurdles this gen, to be sure. And I'm too tired to keep posting... for the moment!
 
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