The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

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Let me ask this hypothetical question: If AMD/ATI deal has not gone through, what do you think stock price for each company would be right now? This is probably the end of the stretch when we can make such a guess, since pretty soon we will be seeing jointly developed products hit the market and separating former ATI from AMD side of business will become impossible. On a semi-related note, Intel has hit 52-week high today and Nvidia has been creeping back toward theirs as well.

Although I don't have time to look at the stock prices before the deal....historically, you can assume AMD would have dropped a few points (by not having ATI's support this quarter which seems to have saved them)...they never get punished too sharply by the financial community for "misses"....However, ATI's situation could have been abysmal depending on how analysts perceived R600's less-than-stellar arrival. Traditionally, the financial community is extremely tough on GPU launches (esp. since NV30)....ATI not having a flagship GPU (it's core business) to match the 8800 GTX/Ultra would have likely been seen as a HUGE negative. Not sure how many dollars south we'd be seeing, but you can imagine NV30-ish repercussions...If NVIDIA still managed to get close with Intel as they've done since the AMD deal, ATI would have been in some real trouble since NVIDIA would have had a dominant stance in both platforms with no conflicts of interests....

Clearly, none of this is certain and we'll never now.....but looking at how things have gone in the past, it seems reasonable...
 
I'm not sure things would be all that different, since most of the factors contributing to AMD's current woes existed prior to the acquisition.

I don't think the corporate shuffling would have had a massive impact on the engineers and designers, so R600 would still be late, and AMD would still be wating on Barcelona.

I think AMD's credit rating wouldn't be as tattered as it is now, since it wouldn't have needed to saddle itself with so much extra debt without the acquisition and wouldn't have needed the extra debt on top of it with that bond offering.


On the other hand, AMD's long-term prospects would have looked more bleak without ATI and a Fusion and other platforms, so AMD may have had that to contend with.

I think that ATI might have done better without AMD, maybe.
Too much has happend as a result of the acquisition to know what the players would have done if it never happened.


I also noted that the Inquirer claims roadmaps now show a delayed Phenom rollout.

It seems Barcelona and its ilk will reach the clocks postulated months ago, but about a quarter later. We'll have to see if this is substantiated.
 
Let me ask this hypothetical question: If AMD/ATI deal has not gone through, what do you think stock price for each company would be right now? This is probably the end of the stretch when we can make such a guess, since pretty soon we will be seeing jointly developed products hit the market and separating former ATI from AMD side of business will become impossible. On a semi-related note, Intel has hit 52-week high today and Nvidia has been creeping back toward theirs as well.

Call me a bad debater, with a poor causal assumption, but I honestly think both companies would be in better shape.

AMD freaks are loyal, but many of them favor nVidia because that is the only platform that supported AMD CPUs for the enthusiast. They aren't too excited about ATI.

ATI enthusiasts have long since had excellent Intel platforms, but know relatively little about AMD centric chipsets.

Again, call me a bad "assumer" but I honestly believe that nVidia + AMD would have done a lot better, due to strong brand recognition *and* more importantly, the leadership to implement it.

I believe that a large portion of the current situation is poor leadership/confusion over leadership roles/communication problems. Add to the mix that brand loyalty got too confusing and..well...here we are.
 
Excuse me?! That was AT's choice of words, not mine. If you think it's an inappropriate choice of words, fine, but criticise AT, don't criticise me for quoting them accurately.

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i=3006

I can't believe that you'd think that definition of "tested" should suffice. "We ran one test before leaving" is in some sense "testing" of the type that *any* kind of conclusion should be based on? I guess you and I have much different opinions of what "tested" really means...;)

Basically, no, AT did not say they tested much of anything, what they said, as you quoted it, was that they "ran one test." To be sure, running one test and "testing a cpu" are entirely different things.

No one is suggesting AMD doesn't know the state of its own products, they're simply suggesting that AMD is lying about the state of its own products. The R600 launch establishes a fairly significant precedent for supposing that what AMD says and what AMD actually knows to be the case are two very different things.

They're suggesting that AMD is lying, after running one..whole...test...????? Heh...;) All I can say is I wouldn't want to be the one making such an idiotic assumption based on such unbelievably flimsy evidence. Standards seem to be dropping precipitously in some quarters.
 
They're suggesting that AMD is lying, after running one..whole...test...????? Heh...;) All I can say is I wouldn't want to be the one making such an idiotic assumption based on such unbelievably flimsy evidence. Standards seem to be dropping precipitously in some quarters.

Here, I'll avoid any suggestion of lying...

I'll come right out an assert it. Does "Top to bottom, stack of 10 SKUs" family launch ring a bell?

There are plenty of places to find that particular quote paraphrased by ATI/AMD personnel and that is but one example. I'm not pro-IHV with regard to any of them, but I know BS when I smell it. Please don't even imply that AMD hasn't gilded the lily, - or to put it more plainly - *hoodwinked and duped* with the R600 launch. Easy litmus test : was it true (red) or was it blue (blue).

They strung people along that the R600 would rock...and it didn''t. Thus questioning their truthfulness makes sense. You don't buy a chicken without testing it from the same guy that sold you a rabbit two days ago thinking you wouldn't catch on.
 
Here, I'll avoid any suggestion of lying...

I'll come right out an assert it. Does "Top to bottom, stack of 10 SKUs" family launch ring a bell?

There are plenty of places to find that particular quote paraphrased by ATI/AMD personnel and that is but one example. I'm not pro-IHV with regard to any of them, but I know BS when I smell it. Please don't even imply that AMD hasn't gilded the lily, - or to put it more plainly - *hoodwinked and duped* with the R600 launch. Easy litmus test : was it true (red) or was it blue (blue).

They strung people along that the R600 would rock...and it didn''t. Thus questioning their truthfulness makes sense. You don't buy a chicken without testing it from the same guy that sold you a rabbit two days ago thinking you wouldn't catch on.

I read the same quotes you did--exactly the same ones--and I read them exactly the same way that you did--but I'm having a great deal of trouble trying to understand how you're equating R600's launch to date with Barcelona as AnandTech claimed to have "tested" it? That's what AnandTech was talking about here, and so was I. What I said about R600 was incidental and meant simply that the R600 story isn't over--it's just beginning. That is my opinion.

I'll assert something equally: anybody at all who has looked at and touched a pre-production Barcelona sample somewhere, which is running in an engineering-sample test environment, and who further claims to have "run at least one", I say again, "one test" on it--and then further claims to have come to some ultimate conclusions about what Barcelona products will be when they ship is lying through his teeth...;) To put it more politely, he's a bloomin' idiot...;)

I simply cannot count over the years how many, many derisive, critical, asinine "stories" I've read that were written by people who thought so much of themselves that they could take brief, teeny-tiny looks at pre-production hardware running in engineering-sample type environments and predict the ultimate fate of those products when they actually shipped in final form. Really, *anybody* who has been around and involved with the software-hardware scene for just the past decade can say the same thing with absolute candor. This axiom has applied to just about every major hardware and software product release I can recall.

Now that I've had to again explain my position relative to premature conclusions being reached on the basis of tiny glimpses of pre-production hardware--namely, that such conclusions very often prove themselves foolish when those products actually ship--I'd like to conclude with adding my perspective on R600 and what AMD has said about it to date...

Back in early 2002, nVidia started lying through its teeth about its upcoming ".13 micron" nV3x gpu family--it started--oh, at least a year--before nVidia actually shipped nV3x. After nV3x shipped, the lying continued at a rapid and intense pace--that included lots and lots of things I simply have no interest in reminding you of at the moment. When did nVidia *stop lying* about nV3x? Answer: when nVidia shipped nV4x, that's when. Since then, even JHH has publicly stated the nV3x was a "mistake" quote, unquote. Point I'm trying to make is that whatever mistakes we all saw nVidia make with nV3x, it did not stop the company from turning itself around beginning with nV4x, did it?

Relative to R600, which has been released all of a couple of *months* now, it's still far too early to know what sort of ultimate product that R600 is, or even will be, in the coming months. That's why I think it's way, way too early to count the R600 chickens that have hatched, simply because so few of them have hatched to date. Do you think that two years from now AMD is going to make statements to the effect that R600 was a mistake? My own opinion is that it is still far too early in R600's lifespan to know whether in two years AMD will be apologizing for it or boasting about it. Time will tell.

One last point here. Does anyone remember nV25? What I remember very clearly about it was reading several pre-release accounts written about pre-production samples that people had seen running in engineering-sample test environments--these reports talked about "abysmal clock speeds" and "frequent crashing" and so on and so on--and pretty much flatly stated that nV25 was basically a piece of &hit....;) Well, it so happens that I bought an nV25 product after it shipped in final form, and I experienced *none* of the nightmarish things people had written about it as they observed it its very early, pre-production forms. I remember very similar things written about the 3dfx V3 and V5 products immediately after they shipped--and when it comes to the V3 I'll never forget as long as I live the horrible, horrible screen shots that AnandTech (speak of the devil) posted on site purporting to accurately represent the IQ produced by the V3.

Those screen shots were so ugly that my V2 easily appeared superior. Imagine my surprise upon actually purchasing a V3 and discovering that not only was nothing AnandTech had written about the product actually representative of it, but that up to that point in time the V3 was clearly *the best* 3d card I'd ever owned, and I'd owned a lot of them...;) Later, of course, it came out that AnandTech's screen grabbing wasn't grabbing the V3's post filtering, and that was why the screen shots he posted looked nothing at all like the IQ the V3 produced from the start onscreen. The fact that a lot of damage had already been done never seemed to bother Anand to the extent that I certainly felt it should have.

OK, that's just a *sample* of the kind of stuff I'm talking about. Here's the thing: is it possible that when it ships Barcelona will suck? Of course it is--just like it's possible that Intel's 45nm mass production plans at present will implode just like Intel's 90nm Prescott production plans imploded. But what all of us should do, I'm convinced, is wait until the final product ships before deciding what's what. Trying to make conclusive judgements about products based only on brief glimpses of pre-production products running in sample test environments is probably the best way that I know of to wind up with egg on your face. If Barcelona indeed sucks, or if Intel's 45nm mass-production plans are fairy tales for children, there'll be plenty of time to say that when these products ship in final form, won't there?

What surprises me most about some of these responses is that they were necessary in the first place. I had thought most of this to be common knowledge.
 
I have to agree with WaltC in that it would be best to wait for final shipping production samples because obviously things are dynamic and it is possible that a step up can be achieved in what the K10 can do.

However, how can you tell that this is likely or just wishful thinking? One way would be to look at past history. Have AMD had a history of poor ES samples and then good production samples, or have they also struggled with production samples until well past the introduction point and then fixed it ? I would say it is the latter from past evidence.

It will be interesting to see what happens anyhow.
 
To be honest, I think both companies stock would be in the tank right now. Just around the time merger was getting formulated, ATI took a turn for the worse which as of now they still have to reverse. Their last quarter on their own was pretty bad and with the way things unfolded since you could see their stock price taking a beating, as I have frequently theorized. It almost seems that AMD bought them at just the wrong time - at the top of the crest of what has been a breaking wave since. Everyone seems to be praising ATI for keeping AMD afloat - but so far they seem have been a drain on their bottom line. Of course, Q2 might come in with huge profits in graphics unit and reverse this trend - I am not holding my breath.

That said, I think the merger was masterfully crafted by ATI's management for the benefits of their shareholers, and a such they should be commended. Think about it: they got near-all-time high money for a company about to enter a period of prolonged execution/finanical downswing and better yet most of it was cash, instead of AMD stock which has since lost close half it's value. The way the deal went down, you'd have to think that ATI management knew very well what was about to happen in the CPU market and AMD while AMD's management was utterly oblivious to the dynamics unfolding in the GPU market in general and over at ATI in particular.
 
Walt, I guess the overall sense of frustration and disappointment I and other posters feel here about AMD/ATI is pretty simple...they have over promised and under delivered. My quotes attributed to Henri "we don't do soft launches" Richard, past quotes from David Orton and others all paint a disturbing picture. Either they are intentionally fudging release dates, performance numbers and expectations or they are being surprised by the less than stellar final release silicon or production issues when it does launch as expected. That makes them either dishonest, naive or incompetant. ANy of those choices hardly breeds confidence on Barcelona/Phenom based upon their recent and mid term track record.

Some will say that marketing people and upper management are supposed to build excitement and expectations for new products. While that is true to an extent, they are also supposed to MANAGE expectations to avoid the PR backlash ATI and AMD are famous for right now. What leads to these hightened expectations and less than stellar actual results? It comes straight out of the mouth of AMD/ATI execs and their inability to accurately forcast release dates, final release performance or their outright fudging of the former. Either way again you have management that is either naive, dishonest or incompetant. The pattern set over the past few years setting up a product for delays and/or poor performance starts off just like we saw with R600 and now what we are seeing with Barcelona/Phenom. Where there is smoke there has recently been fire.

While this sort of pattern that routinely over promises and under delivers on the production/product side is disturbing, it is also 100% in effect on the financial side as well. AMD/ATI have missed their own guidance...NOT analyst guidance...by a mile since last fall for AMD and 2 years for ATI. Revenue, market share, gross margins etc. have all been horribly wrong. So not only can they not forcast their products launch dates and performance they can't forcast their own business either. This company and management is in scramble mode right now and they need to think very carefully about anything they say about products and financial results given their recent track record. ATI has been guilty of this for 2 years and AMD since last fall.

In the end AMD has lost all credibility on everything they say. The skepticism on R600 has proven to be well placed and now the same pattern is playing out for Barcelona/Phenom. Why shouldn't we give more credance to tech sites that have seen or "tested" Barcelona over the hot air coming out of AMD? Nvidia and Intel have one thing AMD doesn't have right now...credibility as they back up what they say financially and in regards to products. No Intel and Nvidia are not perfect, but their recent track record in comparison to AMD/ATI has been stellar.

Defending R600, discounting up and running 3 GHz 45 nm Penryn and not seeing a problem with 1.6-1.8 GHz Barcelona this close to production seems a bit odd to me and smacks of being an ATI/AMD apologist rather than being objective. Especially R600 where for the first time in years and years another companies "next generation" product doesn't trump or at least match the competitors flagship product. The "mature compared to Nvidia" drivers never materialized, the killer enthusiast performance never materialized and to top it all off it was 6-8 months late, has ZERO pricing power and competes against products that are lower priced. Add in the horrible thermals, the UVD issue, and the other hardware bugs and you have a turd no better than 5800 Ultra.

IF Barcelona takes the same path can we just admit what is happening?
 
I'll assert something equally: anybody at all who has looked at and touched a pre-production Barcelona sample somewhere, which is running in an engineering-sample test environment, and who further claims to have "run at least one", I say again, "one test" on it--and then further claims to have come to some ultimate conclusions about what Barcelona products will be when they ship is lying through his teeth...;) To put it more politely, he's a bloomin' idiot...;)
I disagree with you on this point.

CPU design isn't all voodoo and pixie dust. We can very well have a good idea about how well Barcelona will perform, and we can get a decent idea of the state of the project from the current state of the rumor mill, especially this close to launch, and when it is cross-referenced with the odd omissions from AMD's official PR.

Further, you brought up the point that AMD first demoed Opterons at 800 MHz prior to its launch. This was true, early samplings had a PLL problem that limited the clock.
For further context, however, A64 samples were running at Computext 2002 at 1.4 and above GHz.
That was nearly a year before the eventual launch date for a product that was tentatively scheduled Q2 2003 at that time.
It was almost six months prior to the Opteron launch.

Considering the lackluster performance that P4 had in server loads, especially with the chips available at the time, the buzz was more than positive for Opteron.

You now expect us to ignore general CPU theory, AMD's history of delays, its recent damning silence, recent damningly bad guidance, and ass-covering and somehow expect a silicon miracle 1 month before Barcelona's launch?
How about the known quantities: we know how well Intel's Core2 architecture performs.

The question is not whether Barcelona will be a bad chip. There is no reason for it to be a bad chip.

The question is whether it is good enough, whether it is too late, and whether it will make AMD enough money.

Those questions by AMD's own PR are not being answered with a resounding yes.

More importantly, Intel doesn't have a P4 falling down on the job that allows AMD to delay its launches by 6 or 12 months.

I simply cannot count over the years how many, many derisive, critical, asinine "stories" I've read that were written by people who thought so much of themselves that they could take brief, teeny-tiny looks at pre-production hardware running in engineering-sample type environments and predict the ultimate fate of those products when they actually shipped in final form. Really, *anybody* who has been around and involved with the software-hardware scene for just the past decade can say the same thing with absolute candor. This axiom has applied to just about every major hardware and software product release I can recall.
It shouldn't even be super buggy preproduction stuff this close to launch.
AMD demoed much more polished Opteron hardware months before launch.

Back in early 2002, nVidia started lying through its teeth about its upcoming ".13 micron" nV3x gpu family--it started--oh, at least a year--before nVidia actually shipped nV3x. After nV3x shipped, the lying continued at a rapid and intense pace--that included lots and lots of things I simply have no interest in reminding you of at the moment. When did nVidia *stop lying* about nV3x? Answer: when nVidia shipped nV4x, that's when. Since then, even JHH has publicly stated the nV3x was a "mistake" quote, unquote. Point I'm trying to make is that whatever mistakes we all saw nVidia make with nV3x, it did not stop the company from turning itself around beginning with nV4x, did it?
Fortunately for Nvidia, ATI had an AMD-like consistency in not being good enough to strike a killing blow.

Despite its bad fortunes, Nvidia wasn't billions of dollars in debt when its less than stellar product came out.

For all its product problems, Nvidia was not structured so that it absolutely needed great prices to survive.

OK, that's just a *sample* of the kind of stuff I'm talking about. Here's the thing: is it possible that when it ships Barcelona will suck? Of course it is--just like it's possible that Intel's 45nm mass production plans at present will implode just like Intel's 90nm Prescott production plans imploded.
Barcelona will most likely not suck.
It just most likely will not be as good compared to the competition as AMD would like.

But what all of us should do, I'm convinced, is wait until the final product ships before deciding what's what.
It's not impossible to get a pretty good idea of where things are going from indicators and past history.
Your requirement that we wait is the other problem for AMD.
For AMD's sake Barcelona should have been released--past tense, not still to be released.
Barcelona would have been a great chip six months ago.

Trying to make conclusive judgements about products based only on brief glimpses of pre-production products running in sample test environments is probably the best way that I know of to wind up with egg on your face. If Barcelona indeed sucks, or if Intel's 45nm mass-production plans are fairy tales for children, there'll be plenty of time to say that when these products ship in final form, won't there?

You seem to think that it's either "Barcelona rocks" or "Barcelona sucks".
It's far more likely to be neither.
The problem for AMD is that it needs Barcelona to be much closer to "rocks" than Intel needs it to suck.
 
nV3x shipped, the lying continued at a rapid and intense pace--that included lots and lots of things I simply have no interest in reminding you of at the moment.

Ow c'mon. We know you wanna. Here, have a whip, dead horse is right over there. Get it out of your system!
 
I read the same quotes you did--exactly the same ones--and I read them exactly the same way that you did--but I'm having a great deal of trouble trying to understand how you're equating R600's launch to date with Barcelona as AnandTech claimed to have "tested" it? That's what AnandTech was talking about here, and so was I. What I said about R600 was incidental and meant simply that the R600 story isn't over--it's just beginning. That is my opinion.

I can perfectly understand why you are having a great deal of trouble understanding it.. because he wasn't equating R600's launch to date with AT's Barcelona test...
It was more a response to your prior paragraph:

WaltC said:
Last, I want to comment very briefly on R600: while the pessimists and naysayers are already counting R600 down and out, I believe the fact is that the R600 saga is only just beginning. My own opinion is that AMD has a lot more knowledge of its own products than it is being given credit for by some sites, and that very possibly we should be paying more attention to AMD here than to sites like AT, which are, after all, pontificating on the future of products they have no input in with respect to either manufacturing or marketing.

You ask him to trust AMD just because they know more about their own products.. that's just nonsense, and his reference to R600's fisaco is a direct refutation to your arugument.. the "top to bottom products launch", "we don't do soft launches", "the UVD debacle" etc, they are misleading, sometimes even downright deceiving... So much for AMD knowing about their own products...

The R600's *launch* is over, you could draw definite conclusion with regard to its launch. As for the R600's continuing story, you could say the same about G80's too...
 
WaltC said:
nV3x shipped, the lying continued at a rapid and intense pace--that included lots and lots of things I simply have no interest in reminding you of at the moment.
I don't get it. Are you saying that because Nvidia used to lie about NV30 that should make us believe that AMD is telling the truth about Barcelona? :unsure:
 
Well, both Nvidia and Intel closed at new 52-week highs today. AMD is about $1 off their 52-week low. To put this in perspective, "the new AMD", which has less then a year ago paid $5.6 billion for ATI is now worth $7.5 billion, slighty more than half of Nvidia's current market cap... still only agout 10% of Intel's market cap.
 
To add yet another post to what is becoming a mildly disturbing monologue...

The common bits of silver lining in analyst assessment following the Q1 were: "The price war is over" and "Barcelona". The latter has been covered already. As for the former - the notion that the price war was "over" has always struck me as ridiculous. The war is only over either when one is defeated (last I checked, neither Intel nor AMD have filed for Chapter 11) or when both agree to stop. If Intel was "winning" the war, and AMD was "losing", why would Intel "stop"? It never made sense to me. If you are winning and its working, why would you stop short of achieving your objectives, provided you can sustain the costs of the "war"? Every analysts noted that the end of the war would befit AMD... so why would Intel allow that? And, as yet another round of Intel price cuts demonstrates, the war will be over when Intel says so.
 
To add yet another post to what is becoming a mildly disturbing monologue...

The common bits of silver lining in analyst assessment following the Q1 were: "The price war is over" and "Barcelona". The latter has been covered already. As for the former - the notion that the price war was "over" has always struck me as ridiculous. The war is only over either when one is defeated (last I checked, neither Intel nor AMD have filed for Chapter 11) or when both agree to stop. If Intel was "winning" the war, and AMD was "losing", why would Intel "stop"? It never made sense to me. If you are winning and its working, why would you stop short of achieving your objectives, provided you can sustain the costs of the "war"? Every analysts noted that the end of the war would befit AMD... so why would Intel allow that? And, as yet another round of Intel price cuts demonstrates, the war will be over when Intel says so.

Basically a price war benefits no participating company unless the "winner" is willing to pay to put their opponents out of business - something Intel doesn't actually want due to anti-trust concerns (and AMD does have an upcoming anti-trust case against Intel).

If both sides stop price cutting, Intel can continue to sell products at higher margin than if they were price cutting, and still make more money than AMD thanks to the price benefits of Intel's smaller chip processes, financial advantages of packaging two dual cores to make a quad core, etc.

Intel can still hurt AMD and make more money for themselves while they do so, without actually killing AMD off.
 
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