I believe the "tock" will be Kal-el+. With the release date of Wayne, there's simply no way it'll be competitive if it's still A9, regardless of the frequency.
A 28nm Kal-El+? I was assuming it to be a simple clockbump but maybe. However then Logan would have to be 20nm to stick with two chips (excluding Grey) per generation. That doesn't seem likely at all in the 2H13 timeframe for real products they were targeting.
My understanding of the roadmap was that the "tock" would essentially be a 'mid-range and high-end' play whereas the 'tick' would target the 'high-end and ultra-high-end', and even after the 'tick' they'd keep selling the 'tock' in very large quantities (it's not a direct replacement). But with the addition of Grey to the roadmap, they've got a better mid-range play, so they don't need Wayne to be as cheap anymore. And maybe they didn't expect ST-Ericsson/Qualcomm to be so aggressive in terms of CPU performance before they saw the public roadmaps at MWC. I'm not sure they'd have the time to change from A9 to A15 if so, although with Wayne only taping-out in early 2012 they might. Lots of possibilities as always, which means speculation going all over the place...
Much more in some cases. It isn't just about absolute throughput; most programs out there are not written well enough to saturate the typical pipeline, especially in Android. [...]
Good point about the VFP and hardware division. I'm actually rather curious how heterogeneous architectures like the ST-Ericsson A9600 will handle hardware division since A9/A5 don't have it. I fear they might have to somehow convince the OS they don't support the new instructions in A15 which will hurt performance slightly.
BTW, on NEON: some key NEON workloads that are likely to be benchmarked in the future (e.g. x264) do scale very well with >2 cores, so that might mitigate the impact somewhat.
Fair enough. But "not that bad" doesn't seem to win it these days. Realistically, all you need is a 800MHz Cortex A8 and most people would swear by it as the best thing since the last iThing. It's the benchmark geeks that nVidia has to win over since they're the people buying and recommending Android devices.
True enough. I suppose it also depends on how fast Logan is released afterwards. Historically NVIDIA has taken about 18 months between major Tegra tape-outs, but AFAIK that was led entirely by US design centers. I saw an interview mentioning Logan would be the first Tegra chip to be handled primarily by their Indian design centers (at least in terms of physical implementation) so maybe it's being done more in parallel and it'll be out a bit faster. Still not enough to compensate for a potentially subpar Wayne though.
A15 fits many server applications that don't require a flat 64-bit address. From many of its features -- Hypervisor, extended addressing, 3rd level translation, a (relatively) sane secure/non-secure memory management -- it seems clear they had more than tablets/smartphones in mind. Whether or not that market will take off is another question, but it's pretty clear they are aiming for it.
Agreed but my fear is that not supporting 64-bit reduces the TAM enough that it's significantly less likely to generate enough momentum. And anyway I think Intel's Atom-based server roadmap is attractive enough power-wise that there's not much benefit to transitioning to another ISA (that's hardly ARM's fault though).
Of course, considering that Windows 8 will run on ARM SoC's, it now doesn't seem so implausible to have ARM-powered desktops.
As I pointed out in my ARM article, the expectations for desktops in terms of applications are completely different. I can easily believe ARM might eventually be fairly successful in the traditional 13-15" notebook market where they will indeed have to compete with Intel's Haswell and AMD's Bulldozer, but I can't believe they'll ever get any traction whatsoever in the desktop market (excluding the HTPC niche) unless you get a full x86-to-ARM transcoder.
I'm not very familiar with that but it sounds like they're able to keep the cell footprint the same while modifying it's contents. That certainly makes it easier to move to a different node but I don't know that it would be area-efficient. But that depends on how good your circuit designers are.
Icera definitely doesn't do that for full node transitions, they redid all the structured custom work for 65nm and 40nm (otherwise they wouldn't have been relatively late to both nodes). Things obviously change too much. But I assume 28HP to 28HPM is much much more similar than 65GP to 40G, right? So maybe that's what they're doing.