Switch 2 Speculation

[eastmen]

I know what this will be different but still. Here is plan for next Nintendo console I would like they make. 3 consoles at launch.
1. Home console. 4k resolution. Price $500.
2. Hybrid console. 1440p in dockrd mode, 1080p in handheld mode. Price $350.
3. Handheld console. 1080p. Price $250.
This will make next NIntendo console for everyone. Because there is a lot of people who play Switch only in docked mode and many of them would like to have console with better graphics. Many people like hybrid console, because they can play everywhere. And many people like to play only in handheld mode, so they buy Switch Lite.

I think its way to many sku's for nintendo at the front end of the generation.

my guess is they will just make the hybrid model that will be 720p in handheld that uses dlss to hit 4k . maybe in dock mode they will do 1080p to 4k

The steam deck is $360 right now and is using zen2/rdna 2 so I would expect something similar in performance to that, maybe a bit better on the gpu side

 

[milk]

I know what this will be different but still. Here is plan for next Nintendo console I would like they make. 3 consoles at launch.
1. Home console. 4k resolution. Price $500.
2. Hybrid console. 1440p in dockrd mode, 1080p in handheld mode. Price $350.
3. Handheld console. 1080p. Price $250.
This will make next NIntendo console for everyone. Because there is a lot of people who play Switch only in docked mode and many of them would like to have console with better graphics. Many people like hybrid console, because they can play everywhere. And many people like to play only in handheld mode, so they buy Switch Lite.

The home console would be ar direct competition with PS5 & xBox with little to differentiate itself from them. Nintendo likes to avoid that. They don't wanna be in the specs/price arms race.

 

[Liandry]

That plan was only my plan. Of course Nintendo will do diffetent.

 

[snc]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1674107081232613381

so well below 2022 steamdeck two or more years after premiere, yep, sounds like nintendo ;d

 

[cheapchips]

so well below 2022 steamdeck two or more years after premiere, yep, sounds like nintendo ;d

The Deck isn't well above the PS4 GPU performance.

 

[eastmen]

The Deck isn't well above the PS4 GPU performance.

well it's more than double the Tflop of the ps4 gpu , its a much newer gpu design and is more efficient clock for clock as well as supporting a modern feature set. Not only that but driver support and feature support has improved on the deck since its launch giving even more options to optimize for better performance. It will always be hard to compare like for like as the ps4 recieves a ton of optimization and custom settings that the deck doesn't get. But the deck is the stronger of the hardware

 

[cheapchips]

well it's more than double the Tflop of the ps4 gpu , its a much newer gpu design and is more efficient clock for clock as well as supporting a modern feature set. Not only that but driver support and feature support has improved on the deck since its launch giving even more options to optimize for better performance. It will always be hard to compare like for like as the ps4 recieves a ton of optimization and custom settings that the deck doesn't get. But the deck is the stronger of the hardware

I suppose I was judging it just by games. If you take something like Death Stranding, it doesn't feel like it's managing anything like x2 PS4 performance.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

well it's more than double the Tflop of the ps4 gpu.

No it isn’t It has less FP32 teraflops than the PS4 with half the memory bandwidth and that is when the Steam Deck is reaching its max boost clock. FP16 figures hardly matter. The game performance is pretty much inline with the low specs.

 

[eastmen]

I suppose I was judging it just by games. If you take something like Death Stranding, it doesn't feel like it's managing anything like x2 PS4 performance.

It's also running the majority of the games emulated. Also like I said there isn't a dev team going through and tweaking every setting in each game release on steam deck like they are on ps4.

 

[Tkumpathenurple]

It's also running the majority of the games emulated. Also like I said there isn't a dev team going through and tweaking every setting in each game release on steam deck like they are on ps4.

Nevertheless, it's just shy of the PS4 in terms of raw TF, meaning if the Switch 2 is near XB1/PS4 performance levels, we could reasonably expect Steamdeck sort of performance.

It'll be interesting to see ARM vs x86 and AMD vs Nvidia.

On the GPU side, DLSS seems likely to help a fair bit. Something like 720p native DLSS'd to 1080p in portable mode and 1080p native to 1440p/4K when docked feels about right to my naked intuition. And it'll be interesting to see if there's an implementation of RT.

On the CPU side, it'll be really interesting to pit optimised ARM and optimised x86 against each other.

 

[arandomguy]

There's also likely the differing power targets.

I'd guess the Switch 2 would also likely be much more power constrained than the Steam Deck and likely not be user configurable directly. I believe the Switch for instance draws just under 10w total (Anandtech had an article measuring actual power)? Whereas I'd guess the Steam Deck even at 10w TDP limit draws above that total (don't know if anyone's measured the actual power draw draw relative to the TDP configuration). When we discuss the performance of the devices like the Steam Deck there probably needs to be some clarity on what exactly is being referred to.

 

[Pressure]

I believe the Nintendo Switch / OLED model can draw up to 18 Watt and the Nintendo Lite is capped at 12 Watt in handheld.

Hopefully they will increase the power budget in docked mode to something like 30-40 Watt and drastically improve memory bandwidth with LPDDR5 or similar.

That would also necessitate a larger USB-C charger, probably 65 Watt (the current one is 39 Watt).

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Performance != Features

Yes. NSW is gen 8 feature level but not gen 8 performance level.

Regards,
SB

 

[GuardHei]

It is very likely they still target handheld 720p for next gen. There's really no reason to bump up the resolution higher than 900p on a small screen. I would even be surprised if they target any resolution higher than 800p. Any more power will simply be consumed by the improved tech or preserve battery life. Graphics heavy games like Xenoblade 2 only targets 540p with DRS when handheld, so 720p with better graphics would make significant differences.

I would be impressed if the new console can match up PS4's performance even under docked mode. IO is the bottleneck here, both memory bandwidth and cartridge IO speed. Though I'd say CPU would easily beat PS4.


Unless Nintendo is willing to pull up the cost skyhigh and squeeze in an large cache, which only happens in dreams, resolution can hardly go above 1080p I'd say, other than DLSS2 ultra performance and major graphic cutbacks.

 

[Pressure]

They would definitely need something like the Jetson Orin NX or Nano clocked at 918MHz (1.88 Tflops) to match the 1.82 TFlops of the PlayStation 4.

 

[Chiimaero]

I know what this will be different but still. Here is plan for next Nintendo console I would like they make. 3 consoles at launch.
1. Home console. 4k resolution. Price $500.
2. Hybrid console. 1440p in dockrd mode, 1080p in handheld mode. Price $350.
3. Handheld console. 1080p. Price $250.
This will make next NIntendo console for everyone. Because there is a lot of people who play Switch only in docked mode and many of them would like to have console with better graphics. Many people like hybrid console, because they can play everywhere. And many people like to play only in handheld mode, so they buy Switch Lite.

I can see 3 consoles at launch.
In fact I'm surprised we don't already have 3 Switch variants.

But keeping the number of power profiles as low as possible is very important to keep the dev costs acceptable.
1. The main machine: the hybrid with its two-ish power profile (handheld/docked). Fantasy price: $449
2. Home console: the core machine, minus the screen, the battery, the joycons and parts of the dock. Ships with a pro controller. Single power profile (the docked one). Main advantage: low price. No waste of material for customers who play only docked. Fantasy price: $249
3. Handheld console. The core machine with a bit smaller screen and non detachable joycons. Main advantage: lower price. More robust handheld. Fantasy price: $349

An SKU for everyone/every need/every budget. But only two power profiles so the dev are still happy. And here the home console is the cheaper option, because it's the one that come with the less materials.
My only grip here is that the limiting factor in term of thermal power would come from the "lite" variant.
The Switch 2 hybrid is already (expected to be) quite small. Maybe they can design the Switch 2 lite to be as small as the Switch lite, but quite a bit thicker than the main Switch 2.

 

[mpg1]

I think at the end of the day Nintendo doesn't care about power anymore and just want whatever device they can sell at a relatively low cost with some profit.

A secondary benefit would be just making it easier than the OG switch to port from the PS4/Xbox One gen.

 

[Chiimaero]

It is very likely they still target handheld 720p for next gen. There's really no reason to bump up the resolution higher than 900p on a small screen. I would even be surprised if they target any resolution higher than 800p. Any more power will simply be consumed by the improved tech or preserve battery life. Graphics heavy games like Xenoblade 2 only targets 540p with DRS when handheld, so 720p with better graphics would make significant differences.

I would be impressed if the new console can match up PS4's performance even under docked mode. IO is the bottleneck here, both memory bandwidth and cartridge IO speed. Though I'd say CPU would easily beat PS4.


Unless Nintendo is willing to pull up the cost skyhigh and squeeze in an large cache, which only happens in dreams, resolution can hardly go above 1080p I'd say, other than DLSS2 ultra performance and major graphic cutbacks.

Handheld still being 720p is an option. They certainly won't go lower And no higher than 1080p. Maybe the rumored fancy/weird new Sharp screen is some kind of in between definition (800p, 900p). Not sure it would make sense but it's Nintendo so everything is possible. 720p is fine for most of us gamers I'd say.

Regarding the performances, it's very likely it ends up around PS4's performance level:
- SD is around PS4 perf level (with a larger form factor, larger battery, but also supposedly older 7nm node and with the x86 efficiency penalty)
- Kotick stated the Switch 2 would be closer to Gen 8.
- the rumored SoC certainly is able to reach this level of performances:
- CPU: will be better @1Ghz, my expectation being at ~1.5Ghz ish, some hoping for 1.8Ghz+. The higher they go, the better.
- GPU: should be in the same "1.84TF" ballpark as PS4. Handheld may be a bit lower or a bit better. Docked is guaranted to be higher. Combined with the more modern architecture and possible use of DLSS, and it should be better in all respects (with a catch)
- Likely more RAM, but less bandwith, that's the catch. A great GPU is nothing if it is bandwidth starved so... we'll see
- why even bother design a new machine if it's not even PS4 level at this point?

Nothing listed here is super solid, but all combined, it set some kind of reasonable expactations we can have.
Most perfs guestimates are based on the T239 infos though. There is still the possibility that Nintendo ditched it and went with smth entirely different, in which case.... it likely does not change that many things. Just swap the Ampere based GPU with a Radeon or a Mali one. If it's a Radeon, and you get something very similar. If it's a Mali it will be a bit less powerful. But we loose DLSS.
Interesting times ahead. Hopefully we get more rumors soon, the one we have are getting quite old.

 

[GuardHei]

Handheld still being 720p is an option. They certainly won't go lower And no higher than 1080p. Maybe the rumored fancy/weird new Sharp screen is some kind of in between definition (800p, 900p). Not sure it would make sense but it's Nintendo so everything is possible. 720p is fine for most of us gamers I'd say.

Regarding the performances, it's very likely it ends up around PS4's performance level:
- SD is around PS4 perf level (with a larger form factor, larger battery, but also supposedly older 7nm node and with the x86 efficiency penalty)
- Kotick stated the Switch 2 would be closer to Gen 8.
- the rumored SoC certainly is able to reach this level of performances:
- CPU: will be better @1Ghz, my expectation being at ~1.5Ghz ish, some hoping for 1.8Ghz+. The higher they go, the better.
- GPU: should be in the same "1.84TF" ballpark as PS4. Handheld may be a bit lower or a bit better. Docked is guaranted to be higher. Combined with the more modern architecture and possible use of DLSS, and it should be better in all respects (with a catch)
- Likely more RAM, but less bandwith, that's the catch. A great GPU is nothing if it is bandwidth starved so... we'll see
- why even bother design a new machine if it's not even PS4 level at this point?

Nothing listed here is super solid, but all combined, it set some kind of reasonable expactations we can have.
Most perfs guestimates are based on the T239 infos though. There is still the possibility that Nintendo ditched it and went with smth entirely different, in which case.... it likely does not change that many things. Just swap the Ampere based GPU with a Radeon or a Mali one. If it's a Radeon, and you get something very similar. If it's a Mali it will be a bit less powerful. But we loose DLSS.
Interesting times ahead. Hopefully we get more rumors soon, the one we have are getting quite old.

SD's memory bandwidth is only half of ps4 at its best. I wouldn't say it has ps4's performance level. This is including the fact it's default TDP is 15w, which is already slightly higher than the total power consumption of the OG NS under docked mode.

Kotick stated the Switch 2 would be closer to Gen 8

This really doesn't speak anything from my POV. Before the release of NS, it is also rumored the docked performance can be on par with xbox one. Of course tegra x1 is mostly dx12 compatible, but we know the performance in the end.

why even bother design a new machine if it's not even PS4 level at this point?

I can't say it is wrong. Afterall, NS is released in the middle of PS4's life cycle, and its handheld gpu performance is on par with previous gen (ps3) but better hardware features and CPU. It is intuitive to assume the new machine will follow the same trend. But we also cannot ignore the fact that the rapid growing trend of computation power is no longer there. You can clearly tell this with the current gen console. PS4 has 10x Teraflops (gpu), approx. 6.875x bandwidth compared to PS3. But PS5 only has approx. 5.5 Teraflops and approx. 2.5x bandwidth compared to PS4. Of course we shouldn't compare the teraflops directly -- the new design improves on all aspects -- but that's enough to say it is very hard to replicate the past trend.

It's even worse on mobile SoCs because memory is really limiting here. Switch already suffers on bandwidth issue (I think 80% of framerate drops in BOTW and TOTK are related to overdraw). Mobile games don't care because they are mostly forward path and rarely use post processing effects requiring gbuffers. But then the games that do use gbuffers like Genshin Impact pretty much knocked out all the low-mid tier phones back when it's released.

I think it's safe to assume that DLSS2 can help the new console reach 1080p with graphics on par with (or even better than) PS4 games. But without DLSS2? I woudn't be too optimistic. I mean, It's Nintendo, and we better expect low.

 

[Panino Manino]

- CPU: will be better @1Ghz, my expectation being at ~1.5Ghz ish, some hoping for 1.8Ghz+. The higher they go, the better.

What CPU model exactly we should expect? (which Cortex generation?)