Switch 2 Speculation
- Thread starter Goodtwin
- Start date
cheapchips
Veteran
7 yrs later, new tech / process should allow for higher density at similar cost I'd have thought.
As far I can tell there are have been no games released on a 64GB Switch cartridge and only about ~10 or so games released on a 32GB cartridge( Witcher 3, Tears of the Kingdom + other games released in Japan).
Vast majority are released on 16Gb or less and just require downloading the rest.
So that tells you the costs haven't really come down enough for most publishers to move beyond just using the 16GB cards.
arandomguy
Veteran
To be honest if I were to get a device (that revolves around a built in screen) that might be used for the 5+ years I would not want an OLED display, that's basically built in planned obsolescence.
An interesting consideration, especially for the mainstream market, is whether or not burn-in on OLEDs might be factor for the initial console (which will on average have the longest lifespan). Not to mention that refresh rebuy for the "pro" users.
An interesting consideration, especially for the mainstream market, is whether or not burn-in on OLEDs might be factor for the initial console (which will on average have the longest lifespan). Not to mention that refresh rebuy for the "pro" users.
I strongly disagree.
The OLED screen is vastly superior to the LCD in pretty much every metric, not to mention the other improvements on the OLED model.
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cheapchips
Veteran
When games can offer cart + download, all it tells you is that publishers will reduce the price of inventory as far as they can. It doesn't mean XtraROM hasn't become cheaper or that later versions that the Switch doesn't support can't offer a better cost/Mb.
I am just speculating. The Macronix website is rather sparse.
There have been numerous burn-in tests conducted on the Nintendo Switch OLED model and it isn't really an issue in the timeframe you mention.
It took 150 days (3600 hours) of constantly displaying the same image to get visible image retention issues.
Is it really inherently expensive, or just expensive because of current niche usage(and thus lower volume), though?
Flash storage is dirt cheap at the moment. It's good timing in terms of quantity for Nintendo.
I'm far more worried about actual I/O capabilities. 100MB/s from storage was ok when consoles were doing similar numbers, but that game has moved on massively now. I know Switch 2 wont ride or die based purely on AAA next gen multiplatform games, but surely they want to retain as much general 3rd party multiplatform support as possible, which has been a really huge part of the Switch's success.
If something costs even $5 more and you sell 2 million physical units that's $10M dollars lost.
This is why discs won over cartridges years and years ago. And why digital is winning over discs today. No one wants any extra costs.
I think Switch 2 cartridges will be only be marginally different from Switch.
I'm not exactly sure what the Switch Cartridges cost but a 32GB UHS-I SD Card (~100MB/s read speed) is like ~$10. A 32GB UHS-II SD Card (~300MB/s read speed) is ~$40.
I don't really see how they move to a higher speed cartridge.
Tkumpathenurple
Veteran
For individual games, I think this would be cost prohibitive. But for hot swappable storage like the Series S/X I think it could be pretty great.So what are we thinking for cartridges?
SD Express?
This could grant 1GB/s+ of read bandwidth that will help it stay within a similar relative distance to the XSX/PS5 for I/O capabilities, while also retaining backwards compatibility.
Or would 'new format' mean a truly different format, with Nintendo perhaps using a secondary SD card slot for backwards compatibility purposes?
Although Nintendo would effectively need to join the fray in terms of physical media no longer being that from which game assets are streamed.
Maybe a hybrid option could eke out a touch more IO performance? Copy the physical media to the internal storage ala PS4/XB1 onwards, but stream certain assets (presumably those better suited to lower bandwidth/less intensity) from the physical media while the bulk is from main storage. Although since there would need to be an option for digital purchases, maybe this is a nonstarter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Again, you're using per item consumer costs. Nintendo would not be paying those prices.
If they dont move to a higher speed cartridge/storage setup, then they will get left behind massively. Despite what some people might think, Nintendo can not actually just get by based on a 1st party lineup. 3rd party is absolutely critical. This doesn't strictly mean AAA games, but those help, and still, most developers are gonna be targeting XSX/PS5 first and foremost. It takes notable effort to rebuild/reoptimize your game around such a drastically lower target. Sticking with last-gen I/O capabilities will create monumental hurdles.
cheapchips
Veteran
Switch carts use a custom version of Macronix XtraROM. They're not comparable to flash cards. We don't know the manufacturing cost annoyingly.
Right but you do this with the internal storage....not game cartridges.
There are only really 2 directions here imo:
1. Mandatory install for physical games so every game is running off the internal storage. This way the cartridges used are the bare minimum just to say a physical option exists.
2. Expensive physical games/developers opt not to release a physical version
arandomguy
Veteran
Awhile back in this thread there was a discussion about using mobile device hardware/prices to speculate what might be possible with the Switch 2.
The Ayn Odin 2 will supposedly start at $299 with a Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 (TSMC 4nm), 8GB memory and 128GB storage.
The Ayn Odin 2 will supposedly start at $299 with a Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 (TSMC 4nm), 8GB memory and 128GB storage.
Personally I'm a little skeptical about their 8 Gen 2 claim. Do they say the $299 model will have a 8g2? Cuz they could have different SoC for different prices, and 8g2 is for the higher end ones.
arandomguy
Veteran
The teaser image did have Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 with from $299 underneath it, so that's really all we have to go on right now.
Alternatively the Lenovo Legion Y700 2023 was a gaming tablet released in China for the equivalent of $350 USD with a Snapdragon 8 Gen 1, 12GB memory, 256GB storage. Harder comparison though as it's a tablet, but it does come with a Pen and a 144hz 2560x1600 100% DCI-P3 display adding to the cost.
Yea Macronix will likely provide the cards. My guessing on the switch 2 is that it will run games some where around a ps4 pro / one x so even if they just get to sata ssd 500/500mb speeds on the card it should be more than fast enough.
How would they sell you a switch 2 oled 3 years later if it launches right from the part
