There are a lot of opinions on this forum about what the future of gaming will look like, and while most of them are very interesting and worth thinking about, they are mostly about the hardware. There are also some people trying to predict what will happen with the distribution of the games, will they be still sold at game shops or department stors or only be downloadable.
As we move forward with the technology (and I am no expert on any technology, my conection with the gaming world is that I used to be involved somehow in gaming retail, but no anymore, I'm here just as a gamer) it is clear that the current distribution system of the games software is less and less suited for the demands of the industry.
It is my thinking that this is because everbody is using the wrong paradigm. Publisher sell games (through middlemans and intermediaries) and gamers buy these games and play them. A lot of the money ends up in the wrong hands. For instance, retailers take their share, as well as distributors. Also, a lot is lost in the pre-owned market, since one copy of the game ends up being played by 3-4 people. Also, renting is eating a lot of the profits of developers and publishers. Last, but not least, sales price falls abruptly after just 2-3 months for most games, in such a predictable way that most gamers are actually waiting to buy until the price drops.
The better alternative would be subscription based gaming. This would work better on consoles (although it would also be possible on PC). As a gamer, you buy a subscription - let's say 50 USD/month - and you can play, for that month, ALL the games for that console that have been published to date, for as long as you like (there could be more than one type of accounts, for instance you could choose 15 USD/month to play 2 games of your choosing for 20 hours - or whatever - marketing could be very creative here).
From this subscription money, the platform holder (Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo) will keep some (let's say 20-25%) and the rest will go directly to the publishers/developers of the games that you have played, according to the percentage of time you spent on each game from your total gaming time. The gamer will not by buying a particular game or another, he will buy gaming time. Similar with the admision ticket at Disneyland - it gives you access to all the distractions in the park. The games could be made available for free through different channels (P2P network, direct downloading, etc more on this below) so if there is a game that interests you, just pick it from somewhere and play it through your account.
This will solve most of the distribution problems that we see today, and solve most of the inequities regarding the perceived value of a game. It will have other advantages also.
1. First problem solved would by that of piracy. Subscription based gaming works only through an online account - it's not the copy of the game that is important, as it will be freely and widely available, it's your account. (please dont make lack of conectivity an issue, as these days the only people not online are the ones that dont want to be online)
2. Rental market will dissapear. You will not need to rent to try a game and see if you like it. You just play it for as long as it keeps your interest.
3. Preowned market will dissapear - and this is very good since in my opinion preowned market and rental market are shifting the money of the gamers away from the developers and publisher.
4. Mark-up and unnecessary added costs from distribution will diminsh greatly. All the money from the gamers will get into the developers, publisher and platform holder hands.
5. This is actually a tremendous benefit for developers of good games. Not only will they make a huge amount of money at launch, since everybody will want to play the game, but they could still make money years after the release, if people are still playing the game - since gamers are buying playing time, so if they are still playing Final Fantasy or Metroid or Halo some 5-10 years from their release, that money for the developer/publisher that today he is not getting.
6. It will by an extraordinary incentive for creativity. At the present it is dificult to bring something new to gameplay, as the costs of development are so high, and if you dont "SELL" enough copies of the game, you can loose big time. So you play safe. There are a lot of very good games that sold poorly since they were too different - I'm thinking ICO, BG&E, Metal Arms, Okami or Psychonauts. People were afraid to spend 40-50 dollars for a game that is nothing like they played before. However, in a subscription based gaming, these games will thrive - when a game is different, it will be one of the first to by experienced, with no fear that you can loose your money on a wierd game.
7. Games will have more content. They will fight for your gaming hours. A 7 hour game like Max Payne, with no multiplayer and no replayability, will not bring that much revenue as a 50 hour GTA San Andreas with multiplayer (both great games) Multiplayer games, especially online ones will truly become cashcows. You will see 2-3 new maps every month, just to keep you playing.
8. Bad games will really flop. Today, if a game is bad but it has a movie licence, it can fool a lot of people into buying it. In a subscription based sistem, these bad games are doomed. If Iron Man the game sucks, no matter how good the movie was, nobody will play it, and it will not bring and money to it's developer.
9. We could finally see episodic content coming to life. A developer could start working on a game, make 2-3 levels, see what the response is, and continue with an episode every month if the gamers are interested. This keeps down costs, as you dont need to invest 5-15 mil dollars in a whole product that may tank, you can test the market with just 3-400000 .
10. Some distribution of the games will remain. There will be Premium packs, where you can have your copy of the game together with some other goodies like foto albums, maps, guides etc. These could sell for 5-15 dollars and be available through stores. Of course the copy of the game will only work if you have a valid subscription account. Another way of distribution could be through magazines. Imagine what sales would have the 360 Official Magazine if it comes exclusively binded with the latest GOW2. Or, when you go see the latest SpiderMan Movie, you get also the copy of the latest Spiderman Game, which you can play from your subscription account.
All in all, everybody will benefit from this sistem (well, apart from rental stores, retailers, second hand market, pirates and makers of bad games).
One other benefit for everybody will be the bundling of the console with the service. For instance, the PS3 could cost only 150 dollars if you subscribe for 1 year full service. Or Wii could come for free in the same terms. Just like mobile phones that get good discounts if you buy a certain service. Now, just imagine the next generation of consoles, PS4 and XboxNext and whatever Gamecube will be called next time - with starting prices of 100-150 USD if you sign for a yearly subscription, or even free, if you subscribe for 2-3 years. The install base of consoles could grow by a factor of 5-10.
One can only hope.
As we move forward with the technology (and I am no expert on any technology, my conection with the gaming world is that I used to be involved somehow in gaming retail, but no anymore, I'm here just as a gamer) it is clear that the current distribution system of the games software is less and less suited for the demands of the industry.
It is my thinking that this is because everbody is using the wrong paradigm. Publisher sell games (through middlemans and intermediaries) and gamers buy these games and play them. A lot of the money ends up in the wrong hands. For instance, retailers take their share, as well as distributors. Also, a lot is lost in the pre-owned market, since one copy of the game ends up being played by 3-4 people. Also, renting is eating a lot of the profits of developers and publishers. Last, but not least, sales price falls abruptly after just 2-3 months for most games, in such a predictable way that most gamers are actually waiting to buy until the price drops.
The better alternative would be subscription based gaming. This would work better on consoles (although it would also be possible on PC). As a gamer, you buy a subscription - let's say 50 USD/month - and you can play, for that month, ALL the games for that console that have been published to date, for as long as you like (there could be more than one type of accounts, for instance you could choose 15 USD/month to play 2 games of your choosing for 20 hours - or whatever - marketing could be very creative here).
From this subscription money, the platform holder (Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo) will keep some (let's say 20-25%) and the rest will go directly to the publishers/developers of the games that you have played, according to the percentage of time you spent on each game from your total gaming time. The gamer will not by buying a particular game or another, he will buy gaming time. Similar with the admision ticket at Disneyland - it gives you access to all the distractions in the park. The games could be made available for free through different channels (P2P network, direct downloading, etc more on this below) so if there is a game that interests you, just pick it from somewhere and play it through your account.
This will solve most of the distribution problems that we see today, and solve most of the inequities regarding the perceived value of a game. It will have other advantages also.
1. First problem solved would by that of piracy. Subscription based gaming works only through an online account - it's not the copy of the game that is important, as it will be freely and widely available, it's your account. (please dont make lack of conectivity an issue, as these days the only people not online are the ones that dont want to be online)
2. Rental market will dissapear. You will not need to rent to try a game and see if you like it. You just play it for as long as it keeps your interest.
3. Preowned market will dissapear - and this is very good since in my opinion preowned market and rental market are shifting the money of the gamers away from the developers and publisher.
4. Mark-up and unnecessary added costs from distribution will diminsh greatly. All the money from the gamers will get into the developers, publisher and platform holder hands.
5. This is actually a tremendous benefit for developers of good games. Not only will they make a huge amount of money at launch, since everybody will want to play the game, but they could still make money years after the release, if people are still playing the game - since gamers are buying playing time, so if they are still playing Final Fantasy or Metroid or Halo some 5-10 years from their release, that money for the developer/publisher that today he is not getting.
6. It will by an extraordinary incentive for creativity. At the present it is dificult to bring something new to gameplay, as the costs of development are so high, and if you dont "SELL" enough copies of the game, you can loose big time. So you play safe. There are a lot of very good games that sold poorly since they were too different - I'm thinking ICO, BG&E, Metal Arms, Okami or Psychonauts. People were afraid to spend 40-50 dollars for a game that is nothing like they played before. However, in a subscription based gaming, these games will thrive - when a game is different, it will be one of the first to by experienced, with no fear that you can loose your money on a wierd game.
7. Games will have more content. They will fight for your gaming hours. A 7 hour game like Max Payne, with no multiplayer and no replayability, will not bring that much revenue as a 50 hour GTA San Andreas with multiplayer (both great games) Multiplayer games, especially online ones will truly become cashcows. You will see 2-3 new maps every month, just to keep you playing.
8. Bad games will really flop. Today, if a game is bad but it has a movie licence, it can fool a lot of people into buying it. In a subscription based sistem, these bad games are doomed. If Iron Man the game sucks, no matter how good the movie was, nobody will play it, and it will not bring and money to it's developer.
9. We could finally see episodic content coming to life. A developer could start working on a game, make 2-3 levels, see what the response is, and continue with an episode every month if the gamers are interested. This keeps down costs, as you dont need to invest 5-15 mil dollars in a whole product that may tank, you can test the market with just 3-400000 .
10. Some distribution of the games will remain. There will be Premium packs, where you can have your copy of the game together with some other goodies like foto albums, maps, guides etc. These could sell for 5-15 dollars and be available through stores. Of course the copy of the game will only work if you have a valid subscription account. Another way of distribution could be through magazines. Imagine what sales would have the 360 Official Magazine if it comes exclusively binded with the latest GOW2. Or, when you go see the latest SpiderMan Movie, you get also the copy of the latest Spiderman Game, which you can play from your subscription account.
All in all, everybody will benefit from this sistem (well, apart from rental stores, retailers, second hand market, pirates and makers of bad games).
One other benefit for everybody will be the bundling of the console with the service. For instance, the PS3 could cost only 150 dollars if you subscribe for 1 year full service. Or Wii could come for free in the same terms. Just like mobile phones that get good discounts if you buy a certain service. Now, just imagine the next generation of consoles, PS4 and XboxNext and whatever Gamecube will be called next time - with starting prices of 100-150 USD if you sign for a yearly subscription, or even free, if you subscribe for 2-3 years. The install base of consoles could grow by a factor of 5-10.
One can only hope.
