I can get a LOT of games for far less then $60. There are dozens of online shops to choose from, for example in the UK (for me, living in Europe). I've got Batman at a 60% discount, Gears 2 is on its way (hopefully isn't lost) at -66% and so on.
You only have to pay full price for the newest games. If it's OK to play something 5-10 months after its release then you will have better and better choices.
On the other hand, you're not going to be able to play with all your friends online by that time if they're into new stuff. But even in that case the higher price is justified by the added value from the multiplayer. I'm seriously tempted to sort out my online stuff for the Reach Beta and subscribe to Live Gold for its release to have coop sessions with my pals (they've played Halo3 that way).
As for the success rate, about 30% of games manages to make a profit.
And the 20-30 million average cost is just marginally effected by the 5-10 (max) tentpole releases per year. In 2009 we had the following extremely expensive games: MW2, KZ2, AC2.
The rest were probably not that much above the average, like RE5, ODST, GH/RB series, GTA episodes, Batman, UC2, Forza3, Bayonetta or Darksiders. And there's probably a zillion of smaller games with "B" budgets that would probably skew the average to the lower end.