Strongest Army in the world?

DemoCoder said:
You think you can dogfight against a Mach 2 tiny, hard to see, pilotless drone?

... and that can pull 20 g's (roughly double what a human pilot can withstand)? Not even a super-maneuverable, piloted Berkut could win a dogfight against such a craft.

Eventually, engineers hope to build dogfighting UCAVs, a notion that thrills veteran top gun Ettinger. He says manned fighters reached their maneuverability limits decades ago because human pilots cannot tolerate much more than nine positive g's of force. Cruise missiles, by contrast, can make 20-g maneuvers, and so could a UCAV.

http://www.discover.com/aug_02/featflying.html

There is one concern about UCAV's that I haven't seen addressed, and that is, can they be hacked? From that Discover article, it appears that UCAVs will operate more like Tomahawk missiles, in that they are programmed with a mission and then they go do it. No pilot flies it, its computers are nearly completely autonomous in that respect. But they do have comm links to control centers; what is the possibility that opposing militaries could figure out how to hack into them, or disable them. Also, these things seem vulnerable to EMP weapons.
 
Take a jet fighter, remove the cockpit, replace with computers and remote video, downsize more, boost speed and maneuverability, and you essentially have a remotely piloted reusable general purpose missile/bomb that can supercruise far cheaper and faster and is very stealthy. You think you can dogfight against a Mach 2 tiny, hard to see, pilotless drone?

UCAVs are still 20-30 yrs away....thats why US is still investing in F22/JSF....it is still in concept stages and current realities are different...btw who needs to dogfight against mach2 tiny pilotless drone, launch a mach 4 A-2-A missile...boom! game over!

Just look at the predator. It costs $4 million (price of 8 tomahawk missiles). The US could build 1 thousand predators for $4 billion which is a tiny fraction of the military budget. Even if more predators get shot down than would "human piloted spy craft", it's worth it. The loss in capable is made up for the fact that you can build many times more planes, and the most valuable asset -- the pilot -- is not destroyed during the process.

Now consider a UCAV that can be built for $1million. Let's say it can carry 2 JDAMs or Hellfire missiles. The US could build a thousand of these for $1 billion. Your enemy has built 40 Su30s for the same cost. 1000 stealty nigh-invisible supercruising UCAVs vs 40 Su30s?

Would you consider this post of yours.....Su30 vs UCAVs....are you mad or what?? World's best fighter against an UCAV....and btw Hellfires are anti-tank missiles...how would an UCAV fight against a Su-30 when Su-30 can launch AA-12s from more than 100 kms away...

and btw UCAV=1m and Predator=4m....I think UCAV would cost more...
 
Deepak said:
UCAVs are still 20-30 yrs away....thats why US is still investing in F22/JSF....it is still in concept stages and current realities are different...

No, they're here now, which is why the US is minimizing its investment in F22. Perhaps you heard Bush talking about "skipping a generation of military technology" in the early months of his presidency? What he was referring to was skipping the F22 and going ahead with the UCAV.

http://www.discover.com/aug_02/featflying.html

Read the UCAV section in the second half of that article.

Deepak said:
btw who needs to dogfight against mach2 tiny pilotless drone, launch a mach 4 A-2-A missile...boom! game over!

Not if you can't get radar lock on a stealthy UCAV. Heck, without a cockpit and pilot support systems, UCAVs can be significantly smaller and even more stealthy. A Su-37 would be lucky to even know a UCAV was nearby before it was too late.
 
Deepak, I gather from your name and from some of what you've written that you're Indian? If so, would you explain why the world's oldest Democracy and the world's largest are not closer allies? My knowledge of Indian/US relations is not thorough. Why is India closer to USSR/Russia than to US?
 
fbg1...why India and US are still not CLOSE allies....there are several reasons for it though I believe that we have more reasons to be allies and our national interests are definitely not against each other.....

btw we will have to go into history to find out why India was closer to USSR than to US.....

When India got her independence in 1947 it was pro-US but then US supported Pakistan in UN on Kashmir and then US tilt towards Pakistan is well known....that prompted India to inch closed to USSR, USSR has supported us over the years, it used veto several times to help India....

USSR has provided us with latest weapons over last 50 years....

We have had 3 wars with Pak and US has almost supported Pak all times....

During 1971's Bagladesh war US sent its entire 7th Fleet to threaten India....but USSR also sent her nuclear submarines so US didnot act...

Successive US presidents like Carter/Nixon/Reagan/Bush Sr. have had Pro-Pak tilt.....

We had a agreement with Russia for sale of Cryogenic Engine Technology but US got it scuttled////

US refused to supply supercomputers to us in 80s...

there are several reasons....list is endless....

but I am happy that India-US relations have improved a lot....it should continue to improve....btw do you know that India still doesnt buy US weapons....
 
Deepak said:
UCAVs are still 20-30 yrs away....thats why US is still investing in F22/JSF....it is still in concept stages and current realities are different...btw who needs to dogfight against mach2 tiny pilotless drone, launch a mach 4 A-2-A missile...boom! game over!

You will never see the UCAV before it's too late. You do realize that Boeing is talking about radar cross section figures for it's Bird of Prey that are smaller than a Mosquito Visually, the painting and outline of the Bird would be very hard for a human pilot to see at normal fighting distance too.


Would you consider this post of yours.....Su30 vs UCAVs....are you mad or what?? World's best fighter against an UCAV....and btw Hellfires are anti-tank missiles...how would an UCAV fight against a Su-30 when Su-30 can launch AA-12s from more than 100 kms away...

#1 the AA-12 "Amraamski" has a range of about 50km not "more than 100km"

#2 The "world's best fighter" would be shot out of the sky easily by an AEGIS cruiser with SM-2 at 150km. So why would a UCAV need to even dogfight? It's just a a stealty aerial weapons platform. All you need to do is get it within 100km of the Su30 without being seen (much easier to do with a UCAV) and launch your standoff weapon.

Here's the scenario:
a) AWACs detects Su30 at 300km out
b) AWACs directs UCAV pilot to fly with BVRAAM equivalent to within 100km
c) UCAV releases missile
d) Su30 sees missile, and maybe UCAV, UCAV fires
e) UCAV turns tail and runs at Mach2
f) Su30 dies


#3 Even if a UCAV needs to dogfight, it can do 20g turns, fly supercruise, and be so stealthy that the Su30's electronics are not effective against it.

BTW, let's remember that at once time, the Mig-25 was supposed to be "the world's best fighter" but in practice, the Russian equipment didn't perform as well as they had bragged.

and btw UCAV=1m and Predator=4m....I think UCAV would cost more...

It's based on the number of units produced due to R&D recoupment. Predator is so expensive now because so few are produced. Even the $2 billion B-2 would have cost about $500million if they had bought more than 20. The Tomahawk cruise missile used to cost about $1.4million each, but has fallen below $500,000 now.

It's likely that the first UCAVs to roll off the production line will cost about $10 million or more, due to all the upfront R&D cost and ad-hoc assembly. But if 100 or more were bought, cost would fall.

BTW, I never claimed Hellfires were anti-air, I was talking about the UCAV in a strike role using JDAM or Hellfire for land attack.
 
DemoCoder said:
#3 Even if a UCAV needs to dogfight, it can do 20g turns, fly supercruise, and be so stealthy that the Su30's electronics are not effective against it.

Excellent point, in the '70s & '80s, the US used Ryan Firebee's in aggressor roles (eg. Red Flag, Top Gun -esque) and they would routinely waste the American fighters. Infact, dogfighting a UCAV based on just preformance is futile as the Firebee's would routinely pull 15-20G turns and just rape the F-4, F-14, F-15, F-16's they'd go against.

It wouldn't even need stealth on par with DarkStar or the Bird of Prey (Which is an amazing concept vehicle with it's electronic and visual stealth) to destroy a SU-30, it would just out manueuver it like none other. Although I still feel there is room for a human in some air-superiority roles/functions.

BTW, let's remember that at once time, the Mig-25 was supposed to be "the world's best fighter" but in practice, the Russian equipment didn't perform as well as they had bragged.

Absolutly, the F-22a will down every SU-30 you put it up against... I allways chuckle when people make comments like he did.
 
fbg1 said:
No, they're here now, which is why the US is minimizing its investment in F22.

I work at Wright Patterson Air Force Base as a computer contractor (systems administrator) and take three guesses which program I support. 8)
 
John Reynolds said:
I work at Wright Patterson Air Force Base as a computer contractor (systems administrator) and take three guesses which program I support. 8)

UCAV or F22. Isn't WP AFB the Air Force's home for development of both?

Edit: Make that F-22. UCAV is at Edwards.

That's pretty darned cool. Any interesting goodies you can tell us about that it?
 
Deepak said:
Successive US presidents like Carter/Nixon/Reagan/Bush Sr. have had Pro-Pak tilt.....

That's unfortunate. Any idea why the US supported Pakistan over India?
 
I think UCAVs should be called RCAVs and UAVs should be called RAVs. Why? Because current UAVs and UCAVs are not "unmanned" they are "remotely manned"

There is still a human pilot flying the plane, and a human making decisions and judgements about when the pull the trigger and on whom, the only difference is, the cockpit has been moved to the ground, and replaced with a wireless link.

The unmanned distinction leads people to talk about futuristic AI, and AI making moral decisions to shoot and kill, and the mistakes they could make therein, when no one is really talking about *fully* autonomous missions at the moment.

(BTW, is dogfighting really like chess, or is it a easily soluable "game" problem? My experience in computer simulations has been, the computer AI at top level can easily beat me, whether it's aimbots in FPSes, or AI pilots in flightsims, they can make decisions faster than me. I suppose the "best" trained pilots who flight by instinct could react as fast as an AI, but what about poorly trained Indian and Chinese pilots who don't have a Top Gun equivalency?)
 
Deepak's view is a little distorted. Kashmir had nothing to do with it. The truth is, India's priciple of "non-alignment", its leadership of the "non-aligned" nations, and it's nationalization of industries, and socialism were significant barriers to relations with the US.


Basically, the US wanted India to "take sides" in the Cold War, India said they wanted to remain neutral. The USSR backed this. Then a succession of Indian governments went on to criticize "Western interference" in the world, but no similar criticism was made of the USSR, this lead the US to suspect that the Non-Aligned movement was really just a front for Soviet alignment.

Yale Quarterly said:
The Nonaligned nations (some 120 countries) made many joint stands against US and Western European interference in the world. Calls for a unified Vietnam, the Palestinian liberation movement, the condemnation of the US sponsored and backed dictatorial Pinochet government in Chile, and for the return of the US naval base at Diego Garcia to Mauritous were examples taken by Nonaligned states against the US and its European allies. 4 India, under Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi, also took vocal positions against American economic support of South Africa (the US was South Africa's largest trading partner at the height of Apartheid), and against interference in Afghanistan. This, however, was articulated without direct condemnation of the USSR.

The USSR and India forged close ties due in part to the Soviet Union's affirmation of Nonalignment objectives and in part to India's many socialist programs including the nationalization of several large industries. Furthermore, Nehru's "Five Principles" for good relations: sovereignty, non-interference, independence, equality, and non-aggression, were also supported by the USSR. 8 American suspicions of India were further heightened by Krushchev's 1955 visit to New Delhi and the 1971 signing of the Soviet-India Friendship Treaty, which pledged mutual support against antagonistic powers (US and China). 9 The US retaliated by renewing relations with China, which first they bestowed China a seat in the Security Council rejecting Taiwan, and secondly, in the 1972 Sino-American Summit, the Shanghai Communiqué, which stated their joint rejection of Soviet hegemony in Asia. 10 India identified this shift in American policy and realized that the US had now allied with India's two main threats: China and Pakistan. The obvious irony in Indian and US policy was that both democracies had befriended proponents of communism.
 
DemoCoder said:
There is still a human pilot flying the plane, and a human making decisions and judgements about when the pull the trigger and on whom, the only difference is, the cockpit has been moved to the ground, and replaced with a wireless link.

According to that Discover article I posted above, UCAV's are truly unmanned. They are "supervised" by a human operator on the ground, but their on-board computers do the actual flying.

Discover said:
"The UCAVs will go way beyond the Global Hawk," says program manager Col. Michael Leahy. Their autonomy will be so robust that it will take only one operator to oversee four of them at once. These quads, Leahy says, "will hunt in packs," flying in formation and adjusting their battle plans as they go. On a mission to take out enemy antiaircraft stations, for example, if one UCAV takes a hit and loses its sensors, the computers of all four planes will confer about tactics without help from any human and figure out the best way to fire the damaged plane's munitions, using the working sensors on the other three planes.

Self-flying, self-planning, pack-hunting UCAVs, expected to be operational by 2008, will deploy as the first wave against enemy air defenses when conditions are too risky for piloted planes. Eventually, engineers hope to build dogfighting UCAVs, a notion that thrills veteran top gun Ettinger. He says manned fighters reached their maneuverability limits decades ago because human pilots cannot tolerate much more than nine positive g's of force. Cruise missiles, by contrast, can make 20-g maneuvers, and so could a UCAV. "When it's fully developed," Ettinger says, "the UCAV will think better and move better than a human pilot and be a much better dogfighter."

http://www.discover.com/aug_02/featflying.html
 
DemoCoder said:
#1 the AA-12 "Amraamski" has a range of about 50km not "more than 100km"

AA-12 is 100 kms....from fas.org

"The most recent Russian R-77 medium-range missiles (AA-12 "AMRAAMSKI") is similar to and in some respects equal to the American AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. The R-77 missile has an active radar finder and a maximim range of 90-100 kilometers (50 km more than AMRAAM) and flies at four times the speed of sound."
 
Deepak said:
DemoCoder said:
#1 the AA-12 "Amraamski" has a range of about 50km not "more than 100km"

AA-12 is 100 kms....from fas.org

"The most recent Russian R-77 medium-range missiles (AA-12 "AMRAAMSKI") is similar to and in some respects equal to the American AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. The R-77 missile has an active radar finder and a maximim range of 90-100 kilometers (50 km more than AMRAAM) and flies at four times the speed of sound."

Yes, and if you scroll down the page you read that on, it reports in the table 50km. If you use google, you'll find various web pages reporting 50km, 50mi (80km), and 90-100km. I have seen no definitive information on the true range, but I will note that many people have claimed that Russian defense companies don't use conservative figures in their marketing.

It's a moot point however. The US has the Phoenix which has a range of atleast 180km, and it can be updated in flight by AWACS or the F-14, and flies at Mach 6. Originally, the F-14's mission was to carry 6 of them for fleet defense as a sort of "aerial AEGIS" against Soviet naval bombers (Backfires carrying antiship missiles) to shoot down the bombers before they can launch. Take the Phoenix and slap it on the UCAV. It outranges the AA-12 and flies faster.

There is also FRAAM, ERAAM, and Meteor on the horizon, all of which are shooting for over 100km.

Again however, the UCAV doesn't need to carry a super long range missile. It's stealth can allow it to get much closer before being seen, and the enemy will have a short reaction time.
 
DemoCoder said:
You will never see the UCAV before it's too late. You do realize that Boeing is talking about radar cross section figures for it's Bird of Prey that are smaller than a Mosquito Visually, the painting and outline of the Bird would be very hard for a human pilot to see at normal fighting distance too.

By the time that happens we may see new techs to track even stealth (radar-coated) weapons....I am sure nations are trying in that direction...

#1 the AA-12 "Amraamski" has a range of about 50km not "more than 100km"

AA-12 is more closer to 100 kms remember it is a medium range missile...

#2 The "world's best fighter" would be shot out of the sky easily by an AEGIS cruiser with SM-2 at 150km.

What if it can launch IRCM....Intermediate Range Cruise Missile....Russia has such Air to Surface Cruise missiles (I dont remember names...)...so it doesnt need to come anywhere near the AEGIS cruiser...

#3 Even if a UCAV needs to dogfight, it can do 20g turns, fly supercruise, and be so stealthy that the Su30's electronics are not effective against it.

By the time such a UCAV is available (may be 20 yrs lator),,,,Su30 would have been replaced by new generation fighters (S37-Berkut/Mig PAK-FA) which will use stealth....

BTW, let's remember that at once time, the Mig-25 was supposed to be "the world's best fighter" but in practice, the Russian equipment didn't perform as well as they had bragged.

US epuipments are no better.....so many Tomohawks have either landed somewhere else or misfired or didnt expole during this Iraq war and during strike on Afgan camps after Tanzania bombings....similarly Patriots performed poorly during first gulf war...

It's based on the number of units produced due to R&D recoupment. Predator is so expensive now because so few are produced. Even the $2 billion B-2 would have cost about $500million if they had bought more than 20. The Tomahawk cruise missile used to cost about $1.4million each, but has fallen below $500,000 now.

This doesnt make sense.....thousands of Tomohawks are being produced...does it mean less costs? no!....more production doesnt necessarily mean less costs...
 
Deepak said:
This doesnt make sense.....thousands of Tomohawks are being produced...does it mean less costs? no!....more production doesnt necessarily mean less costs...

It's basic supply and demand. Most of the cost is the upfront sunk cost of R&D, plus the cost of exotic parts that are expensive if you only order a few. I recommend an Econ101 course to learn the difference between "cost" and "marginal cost".

For example, it may take me 2 years and $10 million to make a piece of software. Copying the software costs next to $0. However, the price I am going to charge per copy is highly dependant on the number of copies I am going to sell. Same goes for drug development. Might cost $100 million to develop a cancer drug. Producing each pill might cost 10 cents. Drug sells for $5 a pill.

There are many US defense programs where they spent billions and produced only a single prototype plane. That means 1 plane was produced for say, $5 billion. Do you really think it costs $5 billion per unit produced?


For hardware, costs go up on small orders evens worse. Ever wonder why 60" plasma screens costs so much? Because the production lines that Samsung, Toshiba, et al, have are retooled towards producing a certain size monitor (17", 18", etc). Everytime they have to produce a different size, they must reconfigure the entire production line. This costs lots of money. So if there is an exotic monitor size (say, 20.5 inchs) that someone wants 100 units of, they are going to charge you an incredible amount of money, even though the physical costs of labor and materials is relatively the same as a 20.0" monitor.

They can either have their production line up and running producing tens of thousands of small screens per month, or they can have them sitting idle for awhile (expensive capital that is making no money) and then producing a handful of large screens. Even worse, they could have them sitting idle for a while and producing a very small number of custom screen sizes.


The B-2 bomber, for example, had an extremely huge upfront development cost (before a single plane had been built!), I think, $30 billion. That means if no planes had been built, the per-unit cost was infinity! If one plane was built, it's unit cost was $30 billion!

The fact is, the US government doesn't procure hardware like you would order an additional amount of RAM. They sign contracts to buy a certain about of planes for a certain total cost. You can divide the total cost by the number of planes to try and get a "per unit" cost, but it is mostly illusory.

Boeing, for example, has negotiated its contracts to cover the cost of B-2 development and 20 years of maintainence/support. You can't take the 20 B-2 bombers they the US bought for $40 billion and say "each plane costs $2 billion", since in all likelyhood, 21 bombers would have cost only slightly more. That's the marginal cost of producing and supporting an additional bomber.

With respect to a UCAV, having a producing line geared to producing 1,000 of them will yield a cheaper per-unit cost than having a production line geared to producing just 10 of them.
 
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