I think everyone is talking about something else when they say HDR here
Which is no surprise, since HDR in itself only means 'High Dynamic Range', and all that it requires is a dataformat that can store this high dynamic range. R3x0's floating point rendertargets will do fine for this.
And I think that where people say 'it requires SM3.0', I think they really mean 'if you want to render translucent objects in one pass, you require hardware that supports floating point blending, and the only card that supports this at the moment is also the only card supporting SM3.0, namely the GeForce 6800'. If I'm not mistaken, neither floating point blending nor floating point texture filtering are tied to SM3.0, and both can be implemented on SM2.0 cards aswell.
You can do the same effects on R3x0, but it requires multiple renderpasses, because you have to emulate floating point blending by repeatedly rendering to a texture, and using that texture in the next pass, to blend with the new framebuffer of that pass.
The difference is not that large, really, since you still render the same amount of geometry, you just require changing of rendertarget more often, which could cause considerable overhead if you do it many times.
When no translucent objects are present, no blending is required at all, and R3x0 is just as good as any SM3.0 card in most cases.
In fact, the method described above is actually better than using the blending on NV40, since NV40 only has 16 bit fp blending.
The above method could be implemented in full 32 bit precision on NV40, and is 24 bit precision on R3x0 when using a 32 bit rendertarget.
Another difference is when doing HDR image-based lighting (aka envmapping and such). R3x0 doesn't support texture filtering on floating point textures (not a problem in the above scheme, since you sample texels 1:1 at every screen pixel). NV40 does, so this may look better. On R3x0 it could be implemented in a shader, ofcourse at considerable extra processing cost.
As for X800's value... Well, it happens to be faster at executing most shaders than the 6800, so you can probably get away with some extra processing for HDR or less elegant implementations than in SM3.0 in a lot of cases. NVIDIA did exactly the same in the GeForce4 era. The R8500 had more features and better quality etc, but since the GeForce4 was just so damn fast, nobody remembers the 8500 today
In that same light, X800 may well be able to hold its own against the 6800 until ATi comes out with the next generation.
While I would personally buy a 6800 at this time (as a developer), I certainly don't find the X800 useless, and its extra speed may be a good reason for gamers to buy it, especially since most games don't take advantage of SM3.0 yet anyway.