ROG27 said:
On another note, I expect MS to have sold apprx. 7.0 million consoles by that time (2 to 3 million short of their estimates). It just seems more realistic. Nothing happens during the summer months.
Based on the recent Peter Moore interview, they are
very confident of 10M by November 17th, as well as hitting 5M-5.5M by June 30th.
Launch - June 30th (7.5 months) = 5M-5.5M units
July 1st - November 17th (4.5 months) = 10M units
So MS is projecting 4.5M-5M units in a 4.5 month period, so ~1M units a month.
Summer is slow, but (at least in the US) sales have been constrained by production, not demand so there are people who still want the machine and have not been able to get one. MS also has some momentum that will be pushing them through this time period, and starting September-October Summer ends and the holiday / indoor period of the year kicks in and sales will pick up. Some motivators that could keep sales high:
- Excellent E3 showing that was software focused
- Titles are beginning to move down in price
- Strong back catalogue
- Strong Summer lineup (LotR: Lost Planet, BFME2, Prey, Saint's Row, Madden 2007, Test Drive, MotoGP
- Strong Holiday lineup (Gears of War, Forza 2, Viva Pinata, Mass Effect, Rainbow Six: Vegas, Crackdown, FEAR, Splinter Cell)
- Strong 2007 lineup (Bioshock, Halo 3, GTA4, Wolfenstein, Lost Odeyssey, Fable 2, Blue Dragon, BiA3, MoH:A)
- Live is becoming a significant selling point (demos, XBLA, trailers, DLC, voice chat, etc)
- Wii and the PS3 coming to market will be generating a lot of buzz, but when they go to the store before Nov 17th they will see the 360; the impatient may jump ship, especially considering...
- Potential consumers turned off by the PS3 price tag may decide in early November to get a 360
- MS can use Live & Store Kiosks to demo upcoming games and flood the market with movies and trailers come fall (a GTA4 video running in stores--even just saying "Coming Day 1 2007" could be effective)
And of course, 1 or 2 really good titles in the Fall could sell a million or two units alone. e.g. If Gears of War is as good as the press is saying and Viva Pinata becomes a hit with children through the TV series you could see a nice swing in sales--all before Thanksgiving Day weekend.
The only signifacant new hurdle MS is facing is the slow Summer period. Sony was/is already fighting the superior Sony Playstation brand name, they still don't have MGS or FF, etc But Sony also did not blow MS out of the water software wise at E3.
Since MS has stated the 10M number to investors and keep repeating it publically I think them hitting 9-10M by Nov 17th seems very likely. Moore indicates they expect to have well over 10M installed before December 31st and I think I agree with him. PS3 shortages are going to sell a lot of Xbox 360s IMO.
