Yes, but the fixed-function stuff should also improve significantly. It's likely using the exact same code right now as the GeForce3/4 used. As nVidia's driver team learns the idiosyncracies of the NV30 architecture, additional tweaking should help performance a fair bit in these fixed-function cases as well.
And from John Carmack's statements, it looks like the NV30 is performing quite well with nVidia's proprietary extensions at the moment, but the performance in the ARB extensions is rather low, as we have also seen in DirectX. It seems to me that nVidia just hasn't put much work toward increasing performance in these areas, which isn't surprising, since no games use any of them yet. As for nVidia's proprietary extensions, those are certainly based directly on the architecture, making high performance with them nearly trivial to accomplish.