Rift, Vive, and Virtual Reality

Also I'm not sure why people are claming doom for the OR based on it's price. It's selling better than expected at a much higher price than expected. That clearly shows a lot of enthusiasm for the product. They could have sold the thing for $10 and they still wouldn't have moved more units in the first 3 months than they're going to do at $600.
I don't see lots of doom-mongery, more angryness. But selling out still doesn't necessarily mean selling lots. If they're only making 10k a month, that's 60k sold already which'll be in people's hands over the next six months. That's not enough for a decent VR market. If they're making 250k a month and selling out, that'd be a healthy VR market with a reason for devs to target.

If you think of it in terms of console install base, what's the minimum number of consoles needed for a platform to be viable? I'm thinking some millions really. So VR needs those sorts of sales to have a large enough install base to fuel the software economy to give VR content worth buying into. Without the content it'll die.

That said, I don't know what VR movie content will be coming. Maybe YouTubeVR will keep the platform alive long enough for it become viable for numerous VR games?
 
5 minutes to go......I gues they will manage to bring in the basic model at $450.

WOW, well I was way off. Thought "ballpark" of $350, but being more expensive would be $450-$500.....but $599 is way too expensive IMHO.

Okay, so we have the Vive and PSVR left now. Looks like the Vive will be premium and it likely to be between $500-$1000, but for the majority of consumers, it looks like the PlaystationVR may be the only real option. Although we don't have any real quotes for prices, but the "similar cost to a new platform" quote should put it in the...up to $399 bracket IMHO. Being realistic, it should be between $299-$399, although likely at the top end.

What is interesting though is what are the basics required for the PSVR set.....obviously you need a PS4, the headset, a controller and the camera. Extras will be, move controllers or new controllers yet to be announced.

If Sony can get costs down enough, could they potentially release a PS4/PSVR set for the same price as the Oculus @ $599....that would be a kick in the teeth and would potentially get prospective VR owners moved onto their platform.
 
I think Shifty has already brought up a really good point: devs are angry. Oculus has basically lied to them about the range and size of the possible target audience, and this wasn't the only thing they screwed us over with.
1. API documentation went online only from 0.6.0.1 (doesn't seem like a big thing, but it's inconvenient, and it's forcibly updated with every release, so older ones are not available)
2. A lot of devs went out and bought powerful gaming laptops that worked well...... until sdk 0.7, where they dropped the megaton, and decided to remove support for Optimus laptops. In other words, about 90% of otherwise perfectly capable machines couldn't drive the Rift anymore. Their reasoning was that the new, driver-assisted model provides better, more seamless experience, which is true from a technical point of view. Problem is, we're devs. We're perfectly okay with a "slightly subpar" experience as long as it works. We're not Subaverage Joe with a hissy fit if he needs to push two more buttons to get the Rift running. Around this time a lot of fellow devs started to realise that something's changed inside Oculus. Their earlier mission of "vr for the masses", and, from a dev point of view, "let's do it together" has shifted more towards "tough luck, we're high end and f* you if you're not".

BTW point 2 is the reason why you'll find a lot of projects stuck at SDK 0.4-0.6 and not maintained any longer.
 
There is good chance for 360 degree 3d vr movies and movie like experiences to become a big deal. Who wouldn't like to see their favourite sport in 360 3d vr from their couch? Or have very well made clips of the next olympics for how it feels to be a ski jumper, hockey goal keeper, sledge rider,... And of course the porn industry is already there with high quality 180 degree vr clips. And virtual tourism to strange places and musems and whatnots. I wouldn't be surprised if the non game content becomes bigger deal than gaming content.

There is also push outside content creation industry like the nokia 3d 360 degree camera for professional movie makers. Not just something that was duct taped together but properly designed and implemented...

http://www.engadget.com/2015/11/30/nokia-ozo-vr-preorder-60k/

Perhaps 3d vr news is great ?
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2015/nytvr/

best thing about movie content is that it doesn't matter much for the maker if the viewer is using rift, vive, morpheus or gearvr like solution. There is potentially huge market no matter if rift has initial high volume or not.

There is so many different ways to get 3d vr content that I think it's bound to succeed. But success might be quite much other thing than gaming and gamers.
 
That's an interesting data point. How many (if any) announced OVR titles are getting canned?

That is what I would like to know. Oculus has been the front runner for "mass" consumer VR for the last 4 years. Along the way, others have got in on the act, with the Vive and PSVR. It apparent that Oculus have changed their whole idea of "VR for the mass consumer" and have pigeon-holed it to the top end of the PC market. They have temporarily discounted the Linux and Mac as VR platforms for the moment, although it's likely Mac will never get Oculus now. They have decided to up the spec on the actual headset as well which has pushed up the manufacturing costs to the point that they now have announced it for $599. What they have done out the door, is reduce the potential audience significantly to the point that, according to Nvidia, there are in the region of 13m PC's able to run Oculus VR properly....thats a ridiculously low audience potential. Yes quite a large number of that will be dedicated gamers, some will be workstations that will never see VR. But even of the "dedicated gamers", how many are actually interested in VR and how many are willing to cough up the cash to try it out. And thats before talking about Vive......so the significantly smaller market is split between 2 units.

If it already hasn't happened, developers will be thinking twice before dedicating their time and $$$ on VR projects for Oculus, as they are very unlikely to make their money back.

This is where the Playstation comes in. Sony has just announced that 100 titles are in development for the PSVR. They are likely gonna come in significantly cheaper ($200-$300 cheaper) than the Oculus. By the time the PSVR is released, they will have a 40-45m install base; and I know the attach ratio for a PSVR will be significantly less than compared to a dedicated "hard-core" PC gamer, but the potential is there to see quite a few more units.

What we are more likely to see is, PC/Steam gamers moving over to the PS4 if they are interested in VR.
 
That's an interesting data point. How many (if any) announced OVR titles are getting canned?


Before canning, I'd guess some of these developers will end up waiting another month or two to see the prices of the competition. If PSVR ends up being $350/350€ or less (taxes included and using Sony's retail channels), some (or many?) of them could transition towards the PS4.
 
The current problem with devs is that right now there's no standard VR SDK. It's kind of like the early days of 3D accelerator cards, where if you bet wrong you might ended up supporting a dead platform (I've also heard some stories about bad dev relationship with Oculus). However, compared to 3D, a VR SDK should be much simpler, so we might see some standardization efforts, but in order to have a nice standard established as soon as possible, normally you'll want to have a dominant player who's willing to lead the effort (or at least don't mind others making compatible SDK).
 
Devs can always use unity or unreal. Both of them have vr support and fairly reasonably licencing terms.
 
Devs can always use unity or unreal. Both of them have vr support and fairly reasonably licencing terms.

Of course. The most troubles are from those with their own engines though. Games such as flight simulation or racing games, which are quite suitable to VR, tend to use custom engines.
 
Surely we will see multi-platform development more often than not. ie. PC/PS4. That way developers could get more return off their investment.
 
IBT: What’s the relationship between Oculus and Sony like?

Luckey: I knew some people at Sony working on VR before I even started my Kickstarter campaign actually, and we brought them in early on to show them what we were working on, to talk about what the minimum standards were for a good VR experience. What does it take to make something that won’t make people uncomfortable and won’t turn people off of virtual reality?

IBT: Sony appears to be best poised to challenge the Rift with the PlayStation VR, which works with the PlayStation 4.

Luckey: That might be true. I think that there’s not many people who already own a PS4 who don’t own a gaming PC who are going to go out and make that roughly $1500 all-in investment in the Rift. It really is a separate market. They’re bringing virtual reality to a different group of people who I don’t think where ever really a part of our market anyway.
It’s also worth noting that their headset isn’t quite as high-end as ours -- it’s still, I think, a good headset -- and the PlayStation 4 is not nearly as powerful as our recommended spec for a PC.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oculus-vr-fo...kindly-sort-about-sony-playstation-vr-2256011
 
That comparison doesn't work. There will always be people who are willing to pay whatever the price is for the best of something. We know that new big gpu's often start out with poor yields and high prices are mostly a result of low availability of usable chips. Once yields go up the same chip is used for other products with some parts fused off.

It does work similarly. Economies of scale work for any product in existence. The more of it that is produced, the lower the price it can be sold for. Even when you get down to commodity price levels it still exists. Almonds and pistacios are expensive, for example, because there is always going to be a relatively limited supply. They can only be grown in very specific growing conditions. Meanwhile peanuts are cheap because they can take advantage of far larger economies of scale due to high production capacity due to not needing very specific growing conditions.

Apple gets better pricing for custom components because they order such large quantities of them. In comparison competitors who can maybe only order a tenth or less of Apples volume is going to get much worse pricing for a custom component.

Right now, much of the Oculus Rift is going to be custom parts that are only being used for that device. Thus economies of scale are going to be absolutely horrible with horrible supplier pricing as a result. If Oculus Rift see's continuing demand and a suitable influx of money from orders they can then increase manufacturing capacity. Which means increasing the buy orders for custom parts. Which in turn means your economy of scale becomes better. Which in turn leads to lower pricing for those custom parts. Which in turn means cheaper manufacturing costs for the Oculus Rift.

Hence, while it is unintuitive to the average consumer, higher pricing at the start of a new product cycle is beneficial to everyone, not just the early adopters as it allows the company to increase manufacturing capacity which in turn drives down manufacturing costs which means they can sell a product for lower margins which means they can then drive down the price to more consumer friendly levels sooner. Without taking out so many loans as to put the company into immediate risk of bankruptcy if the demand isn't as large as forecast.

Yes, it's easy to hate on evil corporations. But if you want to target the "masses." You have to do one of two things.

1. Offer a quality product at a high price to early adopters. Offer the same quality product at a far lower price to the masses once that drives production increases and thus cost reductions. Experience will be good.

2. Offer a product of questionable or low quality. Cost to manufacture is low and thus can be manufactured in large quantities with less risk. Experience might be good or might be low or could potentially be horrible. And there will be far greater variability in the experience within the same product line. Just look at Rosewill's electronic products. They use low quality components. The experience is great, when the product works. But the experience is also low when the product stops working in 1-3 months due to the low quality components. It's always a gamble when you order one of their products but the price is so cheap that people often take that chance, sometimes to their great regret.

Oculus were likely hoping that they could make things work with a lower resolution screen. Once the device was out in more user hands they realized that was no longer possible.

Oculus were likely hoping that lower quality optics would provide a good enough experience. User feedback from the development devices indicated that users wanted something better. You can find many threads of users using things like garbage bags and shopping bags as cheap diffusers to attempt to make the early devices look better in an attempt to turn it into an acceptable experience.

Basically in the past few years since the Kickstarter was successfully funded, users of the device during the development cycle have indicated that their original vision for the Oculus Rift wasn't going to be good enough. Yes, it would have been cheaper and more mass market friendly (assuming you consider a PC that is 1000-2000 USD mass market friendly), but likely would have been just another VR failure due to all the deficiencies noted by users of the first 2 devices.

They could have also taken the risk of releasing the inferior original design which would have been able to hit a lower price point while working to release the far better version that is going to get released. The risk being that the experience of the original device would have been off-putting enough that consumers would not want to risk purchasing another Oculus device and would instead buy a competitor's device once better devices were released onto the market.

Regards,
SB
 
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Can't get my head around that double negative.
Hmmm. I struggle too, and making a proper attempt at parsing, he seems to be saying OVR hasn't much of a market...
I think that there’s not many people who already own a PS4 who don’t own a gaming PC who are going to go out and make that roughly $1500 all-in investment in the Rift.
The red is the set of people who own a PS4 who don't own a gaming PC. So the vast majority of PS4 owners I expect. So substituting that definition...
I think that there’s not many PS4 owners who are going to go out and make that roughly $1500 all-in investment in the Rift.
Okay, so he's saying if you have a PS4, you'll get PSVR. And if you don't and have a gaming rig, you'll likely consider a $600 OVR. And if you've neither, you'll be considering a $2000 PC+Headset or a...$800 PS4+VR combo?

He's basically saying, "We're Ferrari, Sony are Ford," or something. I guess that's part of his new clearer messaging.
 
He's basically saying, "We're Ferrari, Sony are Ford," or something. I guess that's part of his new clearer messaging.

More like getting a Ford Focus ST versus a base Ford Fiesta. Or any other car analogy of a better experience versus a lesser but still good experience.

There's no doubt that the PSVR will never be able to match the experience of a decent PC + OR experience. Well, unless no games are ever released for the PC + OR experience. There is also no doubt that some PC users will have a worse experience with OR than they would with PSVR when they attempt to run VR games on less than competent PCs.

So maybe a better analogy is that of bolting on a Turbo (VR device) to a

1 - PS4 (PSVR) - Ford Fiesta or comparable model of car. One choice (PS4) and that's it. It'll be fun. But it won't be able to match a high priced hot hatch or exotic. On the other hand it'll be better than an econo-car.

2 - PC (OR) - a higher spec car, anything from a Ford Focus to a Mercedes to an exotic car like a Ferrari or Aston Martin. Or conversely a low spec PC like a budget Skoda or used PC. So many choices, it's up to the user to make the one suitable to their budget and desired experience.

Regards,
SB
 
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