The whole point of BRD was for Sony to provide a new format using Mpeg2, get everyone on board and make tons off royalties: both codec and each disc and player produced.
That's quite a bit extreme. You don't think Sony can make money from blue diodes ? and the Hi-Def movies ? and the Blu-ray PC drives ? MPG 2 is just part of the formula. I don't think it's compulsory for all to use. How water-tight is that scenario as a real business case ?
Do you really think the rest of the Blu-ray supporters, including Apple, will just sit there and let Sony lead them by the nose ?
It was the "perfect" scenario. The sole use of Mpeg2 also made BD50 necessary. Then the DVDforum shoot out occured and VC-1 won out over Mpeg2 and AVC, in that order.
With HD-DVD having dual layer discs at 30Gb. It's only "fair" that BDA roll out a dual layer format @ 50Gb to compete. It's unlikely that the *only* reason for 50Gb is MPEG2. The AVS forum held a lot of beliefs within its own world... but I don't think it's opinion is universal and always accurate.
After that, HDi was heavily picked over Java for the interactivity layer. Afraid that MS would have full software control over Blu Ray, BR camp did everything imaginable to keep VC-1 out, even though MS submitted VC-1 to SMTPE and let them decide how to manage the codec.
Do you really have proofs or first-hand experiences that the BR camp did everything imaginable to keep VC-1 out or is it just forum posting ? For what it's worth the italicized statement contradict with your own paragraph below...
They conducted independent testing of AVC HP in the BR Working group and MS was not even invited
Same for Java. At this point they decided to drop VC-1 from the BR spec but Warner and Paramount were going to pull their support. It was a huge mess. Panasonic were so convinced that their AVC HP encoder would be King and VC-1 would be dropped that they built their first BR player without VC-1 support. Warner and Paramount held their ground and MS had to promise equal VC-1 support to both formats. VC-1 was reluctantly added again.
Aren't Warner and Paramount part of the BDA (BR Camp) ? So there is a rigorous internal fight to decide what codecs to be included in the specs (because it means money). In the end, BR camp did include VC-1. Period.
HD-DVD is a lot simpler as a consortium (mostly just MS and Toshiba as technology driver). So I presume there is no exciting story to tell.
As for Java over HDi, we can clearly see that the number of Java authored titles is even LESS than the number of BD50 titles out there! Even more interesting is that Sony proprietary "Blu Wizard" does not use Java either! Infact, it was quiet clear that Java was no where ready to be used that they had to have 2 specs of Java, one being BD-J which is very basic and mandatory now and one being BD-Live which includes PiP and Online interactivity. BD-Live is not mandatory until June 2007 thus you don't see any BR player (aside PS3) with even an ethernet port. This is also why HD DVD titles have PiP commentary where as none of the BR titles do.
Java is a lot more complex and flexible than HDi. So it's not surprising that it takes longer to include. I don't know whether Java will make a difference in the future.
For Java support, 2 titles already use them since Nov 14, "Speed" and "Leagues of Extraordinary Gentlemen":
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6383321.html?industryid=43290&industry=New+Tech
For PiP Java support:
"The Descent" will launched on 26 Dec.
It took a while, but it seems like they are coming. Again I don't know where the future lies... but at least we are starting to see some action now.
Fast forward and the BR camp broke off the DVD forum and created the BR Working Group. At this point AVC took some of the VC-1 features, added it to the spec and "AVC HP (high profile)" was born.
Isn't VC-1 built on top of MPEG work in the first place ? And VC-1 has to pay 15 other MPEG 2 patent holders for the license pool. What specific VC-1 features did AVC group take ?
FWIW, had the BR Camp listened to their own Technical working group and picked HDi over Java, MS would be 100% neutral in this war.
And then MS went ahead and pushed HD-DVD...
HDi seems to be based on HTML DOM, which is another standard. Will MS really gain that much with HDi suport ? Why would they become 100% neutral in this war ?
There were also much FUDs about 50Gb, AVC and BR's playback capability. Really I'm not too interested in these standards fights and politics. The reviewers like what they see. Bring out the Blu-ray content already !
