Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

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Do you think most people only buy games that were released after their current smartphone?

I think most people buy games that are in fashion at the same time they buy their smartphone. I dont think people who buy an iPhone 8 will go searching for Angry Birds 1 on the appstore no
 
I just tried to immagine how to implement a GOOD forward compatibility... that means a forward compatibility that can improve games by dedicating PART of the GPU processing power (I sayd an X quantity, about 50%) of the original PS4 to non-GPU tasks and keeping resoultion (on PS4) at lower 720p (with the rest of 50%). Then on PS4PRO and PS4NEXT that same X is not the 50% it will be a 25% or 10% and so resolution can be higher.... If all this is a nonsense I excuse me :D Also excuse for the language, I'm not mother language english.
 
Do you think most people only buy games that were released after their current smartphone?
Turnaround on smartphone games is going to be extreme. There's any number of new experiences, and few worth investing in properly. From fad to fad, BC on a phone is irrelevant. That may change with things like FF ports, and 'proper' games on mobile, but all in all I'd say BC on a phone for games is immaterial. People are quite able to change phone platform without too much lamentation of their loss of library.

The things that really matter are the apps. Which are being constantly re-written to support the latest OSes. Actually in that respect I think games have a very limited shelf life because the older games don't run on the newer phones? Angry Birds 1 was updated March this year I see. All in all, I don't think mobile are a reference point for any other platform.
 
NVIDIA showcased Kingsglaive: Final Fantasy XV running in real-time on its new NVIDIA Volta GPU
http://www.dsogaming.com/videotrail...ing-in-real-time-on-its-new-nvidia-volta-gpu/

No, they did not.
They showed a single room with a single character running on Volta, (where you don't really know how many of those visuals were pre-baked, at which resolution, etc.), and then they showed a trailer for the Kingslaive movie which released in 2016 and was obviously rendered in render farms.
 
Didn't even know this movie existed. This is the second one after Spirits Within? Looks a lot better. Would be surprised if that was rendered in RT. I know it's unlikely to be. edit: Just watched the demo, is as Tot says.

Interesting though, this seems to be a common occurrence, using CG/movie assets for in game use. Or the other way around, using game assets for CG/movies.
 
Didn't even know this movie existed. This is the second one after Spirits Within?

It's a tie-in to Final Fantasy XV. It shows some important events that happen off-screen in the game.

It didn't get great reviews, but I think it's a pretty good movie, actually. But since it's a tie-in there's a bit of stuff you won't fully understand unless you play the game.
Ideally, you'd play the first ~4 hours of the game, then watch the movie, then keep playing the game.
 
Turnaround on smartphone games is going to be extreme. There's any number of new experiences, and few worth investing in properly. From fad to fad, BC on a phone is irrelevant. That may change with things like FF ports, and 'proper' games on mobile, but all in all I'd say BC on a phone for games is immaterial. People are quite able to change phone platform without too much lamentation of their loss of library.

The things that really matter are the apps. Which are being constantly re-written to support the latest OSes. Actually in that respect I think games have a very limited shelf life because the older games don't run on the newer phones? Angry Birds 1 was updated March this year I see. All in all, I don't think mobile are a reference point for any other platform.

The reason why I asked that question because he didn't think BC on smartphones was all that relevant. But in reality the top selling game list is inundated with titles who were released well before the latest model iphone. BC is relevant on smartphone, because it helps maintain an ever growing ecosystem.

Practically not many smartphone users are buying hardware and then simply filling up their new phone with the latest software designed for it.
 
But in reality the top selling game list is inundated with titles who were released well before the latest model iphone.
That's because 1) these titles were downloaded soooo many times before the insane competition of nowadays, and 2) these games are constantly being rewritten. The original executable of any old game won't run any more on the latest OSes. You are told as a developer 'IOS n is being deprecated. Rewrite your app or it'll be axed from the App Store.' I don't think the same forced upgrades happen on Android but you will get bugs and problems if you don't update. Certainly to use current features like Play Services you have to update your app, recompiling for the latest OS targets and APIs.

So Angry Birds in the top download spot is there because 50 million downloaded the original giving it a 50 million headstart and then 300 million have subsequently downloaded the rebuilt versions over the years, including all the original copies being updated such that the original game doesn't exist.

In truth the analogy would be every console dev reworking their game to run on the new machine - your download library would work on PS5 because the devs rebuilt it from source. Obviously that's not as economical as on mobile. On mobile, keeping your game up to date means having a new audience of hundreds of millions who haven't bought into it yet. On console, its more a case of the million who were going to buy your game did so already and that same audience now wants it rewritten to work on their new console, for free. You probably won't sell another million to new console gamers who hadn't bought it previously. The PS2 BC library on PS4 is extremely barren, I guess because these games don't make enough sales to justify the expense. The economy on consoles is actually better suited to selling remakes. It's in the hardware company's (not devs') best interests to maintain BC as that encourages users into the platform and ties them to the ecosystem.
 
That's because 1) these titles were downloaded soooo many times before the insane competition of nowadays, and 2) these games are constantly being rewritten. The original executable of any old game won't run any more on the latest OSes. You are told as a developer 'IOS n is being deprecated. Rewrite your app or it'll be axed from the App Store.' I don't think the same forced upgrades happen on Android but you will get bugs and problems if you don't update. Certainly to use current features like Play Services you have to update your app, recompiling for the latest OS targets and APIs.

So Angry Birds in the top download spot is there because 50 million downloaded the original giving it a 50 million headstart and then 300 million have subsequently downloaded the rebuilt versions over the years, including all the original copies being updated such that the original game doesn't exist.

In truth the analogy would be every console dev reworking their game to run on the new machine - your download library would work on PS5 because the devs rebuilt it from source. Obviously that's not as economical as on mobile. On mobile, keeping your game up to date means having a new audience of hundreds of millions who haven't bought into it yet. On console, its more a case of the million who were going to buy your game did so already and that same audience now wants it rewritten to work on their new console, for free. You probably won't sell another million to new console gamers who hadn't bought it previously. The PS2 BC library on PS4 is extremely barren, I guess because these games don't make enough sales to justify the expense. The economy on consoles is actually better suited to selling remakes. It's in the hardware company's (not devs') best interests to maintain BC as that encourages users into the platform and ties them to the ecosystem.

I'm not talking overall historical sales. GTA still charts in apple's top charts for paid game apps at #12. It was released in 2013 and hasn't received an update since april 2015. It's compatiblity extends from iOS 6 to the most up-to-date version of iOS 10. On the iPad, Call of Duty: Zombie is charting at #15 and hasn't been updated since 2011.

You are right using a traditional sales model probably won't sell a lot of older titles. But using a traditional sales model wouldn't sell a ton of old movies and tv shows that Netflix initially used to generate 100 millions in subscription fees. It's all about creating a sales model that works. It may come to fruition that old console Games may never sell regardless of model. But given that it's hardly been explored means there may exist a sales model that gamers may highly value. Game library are hardly utilized by the user base on an individual level. Most of us don't come close to scratching 10-20% of the library. But even at $10 a game, not many can afford to purchase a significant chunk of any typical console's library. But $5-10 a month and complete access is a different beast all together and is readily affordable by many who would only be taking advantage of a library thats shortly left to irrelevancy after a new gen releases.

Given that I don't own a PS4 and the small chance I never will becoming reality, a ps5 with a cheap sub that gives my access to all PS4 would be an automatic purchase. Because not only would I have access to all 1st/2nd party PS4 titles I have never played, I would have access to a bunch of third part titles I never played. I would do this for a Xbox 2 and a sub to all the xb1 games because there are still games like quantum break that I wouldn't mind playing but the DD price has never been attractive to me.
 
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BC isn't just about playing your old titles anymore. It's mostly about an ever expanding library that isn't restarted every gen. In the past you could probably go and buy a new BC enabled console and take advantage of an ever shrinking supply of old titles. But DD in conjunction with robust BC can create a reality where a 10 year old in 5-10 years can still readily experience games they have never played like Horizon, UC4 or Bloodborne without having to dust off some old PS4 or go bin hunting.

I just that Alan Wake is disappearing from digital stores this weekend - https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/05/psa-buy-alan-wake-cheap-before-its-removed-from-steam/

This is due to music licenses expiring. I remember something similar impacted older GTAs which they republished minus the music they lost licenses for.

I wonder how many other games will no longer be accessible if the only avenue for BC is DD.
 
I just that Alan Wake is disappearing from digital stores this weekend - https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/05/psa-buy-alan-wake-cheap-before-its-removed-from-steam/

This is due to music licenses expiring. I remember something similar impacted older GTAs which they republished minus the music they lost licenses for.

I wonder how many other games will no longer be accessible if the only avenue for BC is DD.

Just to be clear for people that don't understand how this works. It'll only be removed from sale. It won't be removed from user's libraries or Steam's servers as Remedy has no legal right to do that.

As well, like GTA and other games that were impacted by expiring music licenses, Remedy always have the option of removing or replacing affected music licenses for a future re-release. The same thing happens with syndicated re-runs of TV shows. Either music rights are renegotiated (if there wasn't a contract in place already for remuneration to the artist whenever a show aired) or the show never gets syndicated or the music gets replaced.

I'm somewhat surprised that game companies aren't more proactive on this, making it such that any deals call for a sliding percentage of sales to go towards the artist (or music publisher if the artist doesn't hold the rights) whenever a title generates sales. Perhaps it's cheaper just to do a bulk time limited license.

Interestingly, Alan Wake: American Nightmare will remain available for purchase. This only affects the original game. Also, Remedy have said they have the option of removing the songs but they view the cost involved (time and engineering effort) as not worth it. I imagine that's due to there being very little residual sales for the game at this point despite it often being discounted up to 90% during Steam sales.

[edit] Ah, OK, I see. Remedy negotiated the music licensing for AW: AN and I'm guessing they did a perpetual licensing agreement. I'm guessing that Microsoft did the licensing for the music in the original game and didn't do some sort of perpetual licensing agreement either because they didn't want to or the artist that Remedy wanted didn't want to sign a contract like that. Remedy is attempting to renegotiate the AW music licensing, but hasn't made any headway.

Regards,
SB
 
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DF has posted their "In theory" article about the possibility of PS5 arriving in 2018.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-could-sony-release-ps5-in-2018-in-theory

I find the whole article pointless, Sony would be insane to introduce their next base console so soon [and before 7nm transistors and 2GB GDDR6 chips arrive].
Absolutely agree, there is no way Sony can introduce a console with a compelling generational gap over the PS4 Pro before 7nm. Even then it will be non-trivial.
 
I find the whole article pointless, Sony would be insane to introduce their next base console so soon [and before 7nm transistors and 2GB GDDR6 chips arrive].
The point of the article is that it's possible, but dubious given the mediocre leap & costs.

Pointless for those-in-the-know, but not everyone knows/understands.
 
DieH@rd's primary point was the business case. Irrespective of tech, it'd be stupid to bring in PS5 only 4/5 years after PS4 and two years after 4Pro. PS4 wants six years minimum seeing as it's the top selling machine, so 2019 is the only sensible time period to start considering new hardware. It should then release a point after that where the hardware advances are optimal.
 
I just that Alan Wake is disappearing from digital stores this weekend - https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/05/psa-buy-alan-wake-cheap-before-its-removed-from-steam/

This is due to music licenses expiring. I remember something similar impacted older GTAs which they republished minus the music they lost licenses for.

I wonder how many other games will no longer be accessible if the only avenue for BC is DD.

Given that console games traditionally have had limited shelf lives as new titles, it probably made no difference whether music licenses were indefinite or time limited. If BC becomes prominent, I imagine pubs will adjust when negotiating licenses.
 
Absolutely agree, there is no way Sony can introduce a console with a compelling generational gap over the PS4 Pro before 7nm. Even then it will be non-trivial.
PS5 will not compete with Pro ,because at current state Pro failed to bring enough ''satisfaction'' beyond only notable 4K resolution increase. IMO
 
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