Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[manux]

My guess is ps4 at least will get midlife upgrade that prolongs this console cycle. It might be that we even enter pc like cycle where there is no more big discontinuities and hardware stays backwards compatible. This would allow for something like refresh hw every 2-3 years. Developer will have to target few different performance specs.

Intel will win one of the console deals. Console will have 12-16GB HBM2 memory(or similar), decent amount of cross point memory as mass storage/read only data accelerator and 1TB ssd mass storage. The cpu/gpu combo will be decent but as the manufacturing processes don't improve rapidly anymore there is no 10x+ improvement on raw specs. I guess 10nm process would be used for manufacturing the SOC and launch would likely happen somewhere around late 2019 or even later.

HW will be pc like in that the gpu/cpu will not be statically locked to single clockspeed. There will be guaranteed variable clockspeeds and games can choose dynamically to use higher gpu and slower cpu speed or vice versa as needed. Big parts of the improvement compared to current generation will come from smarter hw and algorithms. Brute force scaling doesn't occur anymore.

There likely will be digital only versions of the consoles. Physical media will be only used to install games and playback movies. Physical media support might come only via separate addon.

I hope VR is going the be the big thing and large parts of the console architecture might be tailored towards being able to efficiently support low latency high framerate vr rendering.

 

[wco81]

There will still be discs and VR will not be a part of the base SKU.

 

[London Geezer]

From Sony most likely no. But MS could have it in them to create monster and dominate 9th gen. They are well known for their tendency to throw money away to remove problems.

They'd just risk launching a powerful, loss making machine that still doesn't sell very well unless they make all sorts of good decisions to back it up.

Ps4 isn't winning this gen just because it's slightly more powerful.

 

[mpg1]

They'd just risk launching a powerful, loss making machine that still doesn't sell very well unless they make all sorts of good decisions to back it up.

Ps4 isn't winning this gen just because it's slightly more powerful.

Ps4 is winning largely because the Playstation brand wins by default globally. Xbox does well in North America plus a few other countries. I don't see that advantage changing regardless of what they launch.

That being said I hope Microsoft will deliver the hardware next gen because they have edge on sony when it comes to software.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Ps4 is winning largely because the Playstation brand wins by default globally.

That doesn't explain the huge migration from X360 to PS4.
The X360 gained ground. The XBone lost ground.

Console gamers aren't as loyal as some believe. The XBone could have gained ground, regardless of the Playstation's global mindshare.

 

[Rikimaru]

That being said I hope Microsoft will deliver the hardware next gen because they have edge on sony when it comes to software.

Ha-ha-ha. MS software is horrible lately. xbo OS was awful (still is?).

From Sony most likely no. But MS could have it in them to create monster and dominate 9th gen. They are well known for their tendency to throw money away to remove problems.

Xbox is not a priority business.
Mobile was important. But they failed there too.

 

[wco81]

That's the thing, whether the new regime in charge at MS considers Xbox a high enough priority to even bother developing another console.

 

[BRiT]

That doesn't explain the huge migration from X360 to PS4.

Price, price, price.
$499 vs $399.

 

[mpg1]

I wonder if we'd see a console with Intel and Nvidia chips. Intel's 10nm processors are due in 2017 and Nvidia's Volta gpu's that will have up to 64GB of memory are due in 2018. A console that launched in 2018 could utilize the latetest from both.

 

[McHuj]

I wonder if we'd see a console with Intel and Nvidia chips. Intel's 10nm processors are due in 2017 and Nvidia's Volta gpu's that will have up to 64GB of memory are due in 2018. A console that launched in 2018 could utilize the latetest from both.

I think a more likely solution would be a Nvidia CPU and GPU. I don't see a solution with a separate GPU and CPU chips.

I'd guess that the realistic possibilties (or not) are
1. All AMD x86 solution
2. All AMD ARM solution
3. All Nvidia ARM solution
4. All Intel x86 solution

 

[BRiT]

I think a more likely solution would be a Nvidia CPU and GPU. I don't see a solution with a separate GPU and CPU chips.

I'd guess that the realistic possibilties (or not) are
1. All AMD x86 solution
2. All AMD ARM solution
3. All Nvidia ARM solution
4. All Intel x86 solution

I find your lack of CELL most disturbing.

 

[wco81]

Does Nvidia have a CPU?

They make SOCs for their Tegra, which is barely hanging on, but doubtful Tegra IP could be competitive for a next-gen console.

 

[mpg1]

That's the thing, whether the new regime in charge at MS considers Xbox a high enough priority to even bother developing another console.

Depends. There isn't much competition in the high end gaming console space. It's only Sony and Microsoft and I would argue there would always be room for two. Would Microsoft be willing to sucede that position after 15 years, billions of dollars spent and giving up on their best brand name other than Windows?

It's possible but I am skeptical. If Steam didn't exist perhaps they would. I would also imagine Xbox live gold subscriptions are pretty lucurative and I don't see how they could ever replicate that model on Windows.

 

[McHuj]

Does Nvidia have a CPU?

They make SOCs for their Tegra, which is barely hanging on, but doubtful Tegra IP could be competitive for a next-gen console.

They are an ARM licensee and could integrate whatever state of the art ARM core is available at the time.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

nVidia does have Denver, a custom ARM core of their own.
Their record with consoles isn't stellar, though. They went to court against Microsoft because of licensing royalties with xbox's NV2A, Sony was less than pleased with RSX's performance against Xenos and there's a rumor saying the 3DS was at some point supposed to be getting a Tegra 2 but it was shelved for its power consumption.
Regardless, they seem fine enough with the discrete GPU business for now.

 

[djskribbles]

That doesn't explain the huge migration from X360 to PS4.
The X360 gained ground. The XBone lost ground.

Console gamers aren't as loyal as some believe. The XBone could have gained ground, regardless of the Playstation's global mindshare.

MS gained ground because they launched before Sony, and more importantly the PS3 launched way too expensive. If Sony makes a quality reasonably priced console, it will sell. They have the brand to do it.

 

[Pixel]

Yeah but that's because they wanted to include Kinect for that $500 price point.

Nah Kinect 2.0 bill of materials was priced at ~$40 by Tech Insight. They just wanted to make more money. PS4 apu was priced at $120 by Tech Insight. Xbox One Apu +$130.

 

[dcbronco]

I think people who believe Microsoft would sell or drop Xbox are looking at it based on what fanboys and stockbrokers playing games with peoples money. There are plenty of people here that have an understanding of how consoles are made. Everyone knows Microsoft lost a ton of money on the Original Xbox and RRoD. But after 2006 Microsoft started turning that around. Between the die shrinks and combining the CPU and GPU on 360 the cost of the console was on the profit side during 2007. Once they moved to the soc it was definitely profitable. They were profitable on software. Microsoft's reputation was pushing the same exclusives again and again. Because they sold reasonably well or very well. They were profitable. Live was profitable based on subscriptions and on dlc. So the idea that they would drop their most successful piece of hardware, by far, is a complete joke. Recently some people have admitted Xbox is extremely profitable. Robbie Bach being one of them. Microsoft will not drop Xbox anytime soon or sell. It makes billions.

The Devices division also spends a ton of money on R&D while losing money on just about everything else in the division. Now that Surface Pro and Surface Book look like they will drive revenue as well as Surface giant(can't think of the name of the conference room version) that division will soon show consistent profit.

On topic I believe an APU plus discreet GPU could be done cheaply and launch at $400 with 5x power in 2018.

 

[mpg1]

I think people who believe Microsoft would sell or drop Xbox are looking at it based on what fanboys and stockbrokers playing games with peoples money. There are plenty of people here that have an understanding of how consoles are made. Everyone knows Microsoft lost a ton of money on the Original Xbox and RRoD. But after 2006 Microsoft started turning that around. Between the die shrinks and combining the CPU and GPU on 360 the cost of the console was on the profit side during 2007. Once they moved to the soc it was definitely profitable. They were profitable on software. Microsoft's reputation was pushing the same exclusives again and again. Because they sold reasonably well or very well. They were profitable. Live was profitable based on subscriptions and on dlc. So the idea that they would drop their most successful piece of hardware, by far, is a complete joke. Recently some people have admitted Xbox is extremely profitable. Robbie Bach being one of them. Microsoft will not drop Xbox anytime soon or sell. It makes billions.

The Devices division also spends a ton of money on R&D while losing money on just about everything else in the division. Now that Surface Pro and Surface Book look like they will drive revenue as well as Surface giant(can't think of the name of the conference room version) that division will soon show consistent profit.

On topic I believe an APU plus discreet GPU could be done cheaply and launch at $400 with 5x power in 2018.

The proprietary and walled-garden nature of game consoles is what most in the rest of the entertainment industry can only dream of these days when it comes to the levels of piracy of digital content. When Netflix spends millions and produces a new show for their platform people can watch it without even subscribing. When Microsoft creates a first party game like Halo for Xbox you have to have their hardware their software and their service (if you want to play online).

Microsoft would dumb to let go being able to own and control a game console platform.

 

[Gubbi]

I think a more likely solution would be a Nvidia CPU and GPU. I don't see a solution with a separate GPU and CPU chips.

I'd guess that the realistic possibilties (or not) are
1. All AMD x86 solution
2. All AMD ARM solution
3. All Nvidia ARM solution
4. All Intel x86 solution

My bet is MS will refresh first, probably october/november 2017 (Sony has much less incentive for killing off this gen quickly)

AMD APU on 14nm process tech (mature and cheap in '17), 8 Zen cores, 350mm² total die area, 8/16GB HBM2 memory, 128/256GB Flash/SSD.

SKUs: Arcade (with only flash mass storage), Pro (flash+optical), Premium (flash+1-2 TB HDD+optical); With a heavy reliance on external storage options (a HDD is a big BOM item that doesn't go down over time, better to externalise it).

Sony hardware will be almost identical, but a little later.

Cheers