Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Rangers]

I don't know about that. I would call WiiU systems awfully expensive for what they deliver. WiiU consoles are only $50 cheaper than XB1 or PS4 consoles [$299 vs $349]. Then during BlackFriday the XB1 and PS4 will be $299. No idea what sales price WiiU will drop to.

Yeah I was about to say, for what you get tech-wise Nintendo is the leader of ripping people off...that goes right down to the 3DS. The chips in Nintendo devices typically belong in toasters...

Heck say what you want about Apple but their chips are usually absolute bleeding edge in the new iphone/ipad every year.

 

[liolio]

That 51.2GB/sec bandwidth figure is also awesome. Especially as it is combined with a PowerVR GPU that uses tiling to save considerable amount of bandwidth compared to traditional GPU architectures. But it is still far away from PS4s bandwidth figure. A big ramp up would still be needed to match 9th gen expectations.

Did you manage to make measurements about how much bandwidth tiling GPU can save against traditional GPU?
Intel Atom could be a good place to investigate as they come both with not that new PowerVR GPU as well as INtel own GPU, neither seem to have advanced compression mechanism at work to further decreased bandwidth requirement.

 

[mpg1]

With the consoles already underpowered and Sony walking away with this generation... I simply don't see a situation where Microsoft isn't going to try to jump the gun on the next generation console cycle.

My prediction is a new Xbox in Fall 2017. 10 Tflops. 16GB hbm. $500.

 

[Lalaland]

HBM won't be at those densities by then and 16GB will be reserved for ultra highend Quadro GPUs. Hell the current capacity of HBM is too low for pro applications and not even AMD are bothering to do a pro Fiji GPU until they improve.

 

[mpg1]

HBM won't be at those densities by then and 16GB will be reserved for ultra highend Quadro GPUs. Hell the current capacity of HBM is too low for pro applications and not even AMD are bothering to do a pro Fiji GPU until they improve.

AMD Article Islands and Nvidia Pascal gpu's are launching next year. It is reported that the high end consumer cards in the lineup to have 16GB of HBM 2. Certainly by 2017 Microsoft could utilize it.

 

[sebbbi]

Console memory has traditionally increased by 8x-16x from one generation to the next. Xbox 64 MB -> 512 MB -> 8 GB. PS 2 MB -> 32 MB -> 256 MB -> 8 GB. 16 GB seems tiny compared to previous generations.

 

[London Geezer]

My question is, will a console really need something like 64GB RAM in 3-4 years time? That's enough to hold a whole, massive game in RAM!

I mean finally we could probably have real multitasking but right now 64GB (or more) of RAM sounds humongous.

 

[turkey]

I would assume having flash cache and some clever streaming api to get data from large slow storage to cache and ram and then more but not crazily so memory.

Asset creation must start to be a limiting factor not hardware?

 

[Globalisateur]

My question is, will a console really need something like 64GB RAM in 3-4 years time? That's enough to hold a whole, massive game in RAM!

I mean finally we could probably have real multitasking but right now 64GB (or more) of RAM sounds humongous.

Not in 3 or 4 years. But in at least 5 years yes, 64GB or 128GB, which is perfectly in line with historical precedent, see @sebbbi's post. Parallelized engines can greatly benefit from very high amount of ram. I am talking about better performance, not only shinier graphics or bigger games.

Literally, in TLOUR's case, they couldn't have reached 60fps without obscene amount of ram (compared to what they had on PS3). They were even limited at some point by the memory they had on PS4. Devs always find creative ways to use available memory.

http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1022186/Parallelizing-the-Naughty-Dog-Engine

Also more and more games are open world or at least bigger so having big memory pools is a necessity.

 

[dcbronco]

I'm not sold on the idea of 15TF consoles for the sake of pushing graphics solely. I think we might see dual GPUs in the next generation. The real problem with gaming is stagnation in gameplay. What we need are better mechanics and more power to allow developers to push their imaginations. What I'd like to see, if possible, is dual GPUs. One on the die APU GPU that's geared towards compute. That one might weight in at 4TFs. The second GPU would be a relative monster at 8-10 TFs. Let consoles go back to the 200W range.

I could see Microsoft especially going this route given the effort they've made at having GPUs of any kind communicate and that they have been working with code coming from multiple sources with their use of cloud computing. I do believe we will see the new consoles by 2018-19 because the new APIs will put consoles in such a hole compared to PC that the difference will become embarrassing. Also with Microsoft pushing PC and Xbox as companion devices with cross streaming they can only let Xbox fall so far behind. Think of it as having 4k in your living room and old school over the air tv in the bedroom. That TV in the bedroom becomes unwatchable.

 

[mpg1]

I also hope they go back to 200 watt range consoles. The primary point of gaming consoles is for gaming not netflix. Xbox 360 and PS3 just happened to be in millions of homes when Netflix became popular and there wasnt a million different low powered video streaming devices available out there. I feel like Microsoft got confused this gen and thought they were competing with Roku's and Apple TV's and ended up forgoting they were actually making a game console.

Also in fairness Microsoft took such a loss from the red ring of death thing that they are probably reluctant to make a power hungry console.

 

[Pixel]

I also hope they go back to 200 watt range consoles. The primary point of gaming consoles is for gaming not netflix. Xbox 360 and PS3 just happened to be in millions of homes when Netflix became popular and there wasnt a million different low powered video streaming devices available out there. I feel like Microsoft got confused this gen and thought they were competing with Roku's and Apple TV's and ended up forgoting they were actually making a game console.

Also in fairness Microsoft took such a loss from the red ring of death thing that they are probably reluctant to make a power hungry console.

Keep in mind MS also is looking to reduce the cost of the systems. Last gen they spent +$260 on the processors at launch, this time they spent +$110.

 

[DieH@rd]

What about using 2 whole APUs? 10nm quad/octa Zen + ~6-8TF GPU + substrate with ~16-32GB of HBM, with two of those packages placed on a motherboard.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I don't think we'll ever have more than one SoC in future consoles. When people mentioned 2 GPUs, they were probably suggesting two integrated GPUs inside one SoC for VR.
And even that seems like a bit of a waste of space. GPU designers would probably prefer to have a single GPU with a substantial boost in fillrate and the ability to issue two graphics queues at the same time, trying to get a smaller performance penalty for rendering two distinct viewpoints than the current GPUs.

 

[Rikimaru]

We won't see a > $400 consoles anymore. And massive losses per unit too.

 

[mpg1]

We won't see a > $400 consoles anymore. And massive losses per unit too.

I would hope at least one of either Microsoft or Sony has a $500 system that doesn't include some dumb perephial other than a controller.

 

[mpg1]

Keep in mind MS also is looking to reduce the cost of the systems. Last gen they spent +$260 on the processors at launch, this time they spent +$110.

Yeah but that's because they wanted to include Kinect for that $500 price point.

 

[DieH@rd]

We won't see a > $400 consoles anymore. And massive losses per unit too.

From Sony most likely no. But MS could have it in them to create monster and dominate 9th gen. They are well known for their tendency to throw money away to remove problems.

 

[BRiT]

From Sony most likely no. But MS could have it in them to create monster and dominate 9th gen. They are well known for their tendency to throw money away to remove problems.

Yup, they could call it Surface Box and get into the near PC price area.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Yup, they could call it Surface Box and get into the near PC price area.

No ta.

I'd buy a badass Xbox though.