where ?
Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]
- Thread starter Shifty Geezer
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where ?
Imo, a 2017 launch would probably need a spec and architecture freeze this year. You would probably need to have a test chip tapeout by the end of year. I think things would already be leaking.
shredenvain
Regular
Where are you getting that the Xbox One is sinking? They lost the sales race last month, but they are still well ahead of what the 360 was at this time in it's life cycle.
You don't have to win to be successful. You may be close on the launch of it's successor, but I think holiday 2018 is closer to actual reality.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Certainly I would think late 2018 (not 2017) would be the very earliest for an Xbox One successor but I think a launch in 2018, or 2019 at the latest is a good bet.
Can people please stick to discussing their HW predictions for their release estimate, rather than the business choices of when to launch. There are other, non tech threads for those discussions.
That's nearly impossible to do though. Product releases by companies are based on business choices. If you want to the most accurate HW predictions you need to derive that from some sort of business analysis first.
And the big question for me is how is VR going to play out and what companies will be involved. If VR really starts to take off over the next couple of years it could shape the gaming market and who knows if there will be any more traditional "gaming consoles."
We don't want 'accurate'. We want wild speculation! 
There are other threads for discussing business choices. This thread is specifically about what hardware options there are to achieve those choices, based on technical discussion of the hardware. That's how these technical prediction threads work. For comparison, the last-gen thread had predictions for hardware releases in 2010/2011, which then dragged on to later predictions and hardwares.
All you need do is present your theory as to what will launch and when, and have people discuss the technical viability. eg. "I think VR will be a big player and MS will launch a new XBox based on their Windows 10 platform in late 2016. It'll have this hardware...(list of componantry and silicometronics)". The responses would be "that hardware won't be possible at that timeframe" or "a cost-effective supplier might be difficult", etc. It won't be "VR won't take off" or "MS's business position is blah blah."
There are other threads for discussing business choices. This thread is specifically about what hardware options there are to achieve those choices, based on technical discussion of the hardware. That's how these technical prediction threads work. For comparison, the last-gen thread had predictions for hardware releases in 2010/2011, which then dragged on to later predictions and hardwares.
All you need do is present your theory as to what will launch and when, and have people discuss the technical viability. eg. "I think VR will be a big player and MS will launch a new XBox based on their Windows 10 platform in late 2016. It'll have this hardware...(list of componantry and silicometronics)". The responses would be "that hardware won't be possible at that timeframe" or "a cost-effective supplier might be difficult", etc. It won't be "VR won't take off" or "MS's business position is blah blah."
IllusionistK
Newcomer
Microsoft will want to launch a year before Sony given the outcome of this generation, despite still being successful in their own right. So I can see the 9th generation going in 1 of 2 ways for Microsoft. A low-power, profitable box out of the gate that tempers expectations of what Sony will launch the following year. Microsoft could go the omnipotent route and not hold back on power and have a years head start on Sony while still being on par on paper.
Low power box:
4th Generation Xbox
Launch: 2018
Fab: 10nm
GPU: ~30TF should be possible at 10nm if scaling linearly with current 120w power levels(45TF @ 200w)
CPU: 6-core Zen-based CPU at 3Ghz
RAM: 16GB HBM @ 1TB/s
Controller: High dynamic range microphones embedded within the face of the controller for Cortana voice commands.
Price: 349
High power box:
Launch: 2018
Fab: 10nm
GPU: 70TF at 225w
CPU: 6-core Zen-based CPU at 3Ghz
RAM: 16-32GB HBM @ 1-2TB/s
Controller: HDR controller
Price: 449
Regardless of the route they take, 2018 will be the launch year for Microsoft and if Sony launches in 2019 with a more powerful box, simply drop the price. If not, they'll have more games afforded by the year head start.
Low power box:
4th Generation Xbox
Launch: 2018
Fab: 10nm
GPU: ~30TF should be possible at 10nm if scaling linearly with current 120w power levels(45TF @ 200w)
CPU: 6-core Zen-based CPU at 3Ghz
RAM: 16GB HBM @ 1TB/s
Controller: High dynamic range microphones embedded within the face of the controller for Cortana voice commands.
Price: 349
High power box:
Launch: 2018
Fab: 10nm
GPU: 70TF at 225w
CPU: 6-core Zen-based CPU at 3Ghz
RAM: 16-32GB HBM @ 1-2TB/s
Controller: HDR controller
Price: 449
Regardless of the route they take, 2018 will be the launch year for Microsoft and if Sony launches in 2019 with a more powerful box, simply drop the price. If not, they'll have more games afforded by the year head start.
IllusionistK
Newcomer
I'll add: 32GB PCIe SSD + 1-2TB hybrid drive. Though, with 16-32GB HBM, you don't really need flash storage as much.
Wrong thread. Or rather, your answer to the OP is, "there won't be a new console from MS."
I see a problem with your GPU TeraFlops and ram bandwidth ratio. Those GPUs are going to be seriously bandwidth starved.
And why only 6 cores? At this point and because of cost & heat reasons the number of cores can only go up (or stay equal at 8).
I think the teraflop rating is way high. 28nn->14->10 won't scale that well. My guess is we'll end up with a possible range of 8-24 Tflops depending on if they go for high end or low end.
I would think if the next consoles stuck with an 8-core x86 APU with unified memory it would really facilitate the transition to the next generation.
I would think if the next consoles stuck with an 8-core x86 APU with unified memory it would really facilitate the transition to the next generation.
Your GPU assumptions are way to powerful, and your RAM assumptions are surprisingly low. There is no way in hell that we will in 2018 get 70TF GPU in consoles. Zero chance.
25TF is the absolute max I can imagine happening even with 10nm [and I'm even willing to believe hat that is a max for 2019/2020 console], and 32GB of ram is the minimum I think we will get [by then we will most likely get HBM package with 8 layers of 1GB chips, or even more capacity].
If PS5 is 15TF/32GB console in 2019, I would be soooo happy. Heck, anything 8TF+ would be great.
They might still want to be somewhat low-end considering they may be stuck on 10nm for a while. 450mm wafers may change the cost/yield model a bit if/when those ever ramp up, but at the end of the day, it'll come down to TDP.
PS4 and Xbox One, for the most part, are just low-end PCs in small cases. I expect that trend to continue. I'd predict there will be little custom hardware in the next-gen of consoles. They'll be PC or mobile parts.
I agree. Long term cost reduction planning plays a big factor in the design of the console. Who knows how attainable 7nm will be and in what time frame.
The only way I could see a console manufacturer going with a high-end/sold-at-loss console again is if they can get quick reduction within the first year and given how slow process technology has been evolving, I wouldn't make a bet that that would be the case in the future.
IllusionistK
Newcomer
I figured they'd be too high, but that was more of a fantasy setup using Intel's magic fabs. Realistically, I'm expecting 30TF on the absolute high end PCs and 15-20TF for consoles. That would give us the coveted 10x increase. 32GB of RAM cost about $200 right now so I can't see consoles shipping with that much of the high-bandwidth stuff. Unless they are targeting 4k60hz, and even then, 32GB is overkill.
Is a 15TF GPU enough, though?
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