Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

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Saw a headline the other day that MS intends to deploy game streaming in a couple of years.

Does that mean they will no longer develop new console hardware?

I guess it will depend on the sales of the X1X over the next few years.
They will always develop hardware. They just want to ensure that anyone and everyone can access its content.
Paid streaming services would be ideal for candidates that want to be platform agnostic, and you'll always have great looking games provided the service keeps their rigs up to date.
 
11.3 TNvidiaFlops ~= 15 TAmdFlops ?

Don't kill me, it's something I read on the internets.
no lol
we're not going to get into this. I accidentally thought that, which lead me to write (today's flops) haha.. then I forgot to erase it, I had to go back and remove it.
 
I'm trying some 2019-2020 cost projections based loosely on past BOMs.

$120 for a 15TF SoC
$5/GB if using GDDR6
$5/GB if using HBM (samsung's low cost hbm)
$10 for an interposer
$150 rest of BOM, psu, odd, hdd, m/b, cooling, etc...

(A) Total BOM using GDDR6 384 bits (768GB/s):

18GB: $360
24GB: $390
36GB: $450

(B) Total BOM using low-cost HBM 4 stacks (800GB/s)

No idea what the interposer/assembly yield problem looks like, but I thought it would be fun to try a range of 90% to 99% per die. (4 stacks being 5 dies on the interposer)

90% yield: (^5 = 59%)
16GB: $505
32GB: $641

95% yield: (^5 = 77%)
16GB: $422
32GB: $526

98% yield: (^5 = 90%)
16GB: $394
32GB: $472

99% yield: (^5 = 95%)
16GB: $381
32GB: $455


Looks like 16-18GB of RAM. Need that $400 launch price.
 
95% yield: (^5 = 77%)
16GB: $422
32GB: $526

98% yield: (^5 = 90%)
16GB: $394
32GB: $472

99% yield: (^5 = 95%)
16GB: $381
32GB: $455
16 GB HBM @ 800GB/s and an SSD (+HDD) would be very functional I think, and nicely progressable with larger SSD/flash options through the generation alongside HDD increases, and/or be user upgradeable for power users, and should cost reduce well (SSDs gaining the benefit of process shrinks as SOc and HBM would). If I was in charge, I'd be seriously considering that option. In fact I'm finding it hard to seriously justify another design without an SSD. Gobs of RAM and a slow ass HDD will be a terrible user experience.

In fact, that's my prediction. Or rather vision, which no-one's going to follow because they don't listen to me (although Nintendo got close with my dockable console vision) - A semi-modular console with a base unit, HDD, SSD, and stacked RAM, maybe GDDR6 or such. Optional optical drive can be attached on the top in something infinitely more classy than Sega MegaCD... Going one step further, the SSD is replaced with two flash ports (XQD, CFast, whatever) under a cover at the front. Base unit is thus compact, only housing HDD and mobo. Optional ODD stacks on top for squarer console than usual - slim drive needn't add too much - so kinda Apple TV/Amazon Fire TV. Defers cost of movie playback to specific users, dropping entry level price. Power users can be wooed with the possibility of adding dual flash carts at whatever speed for faster operation, and replacing HDD with larger/faster drive. And for a final foray into dream-land, base units can be stacked to work in parallel replacing the need for mid-gen refreshes. As the generation progresses and the base unit gets cheaper, more users will buy additional stacks. A new console generation won't be needed for 15 years, and only because the average stack size of 24 units by then will be too top-heavy and liable to fall over.
 
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Probably (and hopefully) chips that are still in the making.

Unless you mean a *new* 3ds type upgrado ; so a *new* Nintendo switch. For which I could see them simply using tegra X2 and adding some ram.

For an out and out successor id expect something between ps4 and the pro (docked) with a better CPU. Assuming Nintendo keeps up with modern designs.

It was late so I should have probably worded myself a bit better. I'm guessing a Switch successor would show up around 2021 or 2022. Where do you guys think Nvidia's mobile technology will be around that time?

I wonder if the Switch's success will make more companies consider making more flexible engines, as well? It would probably benefit everyone if they did, honestly.
 
16 GB HBM @ 800GB/s and an SSD (+HDD) would be very functional I think, and nicely progressable with larger SSD/flash options through the generation alongside HDD increases, and/or be user upgradeable for power users, and should cost reduce well (SSDs gaining the benefit of process shrinks as SOc and HBM would). If I was in charge, I'd be seriously considering that option. In fact I'm finding it hard to seriously justify another design without an SSD. Gobs of RAM and a slow ass HDD will be a terrible user experience.

In fact, that's my prediction. Or rather vision, which no-one's going to follow because they don't listen to me (although Nintendo got close with my dockable console vision) - A semi-modular console with a base unit, HDD, SSD, and stacked RAM, maybe GDDR6 or such. Optional optical drive can be attached on the top in something infinitely more classy than Sega MegaCD... Going one step further, the SSD is replaced with two flash ports (XQD, CFast, whatever) under a cover at the front. Base unit is thus compact, only housing HDD and mobo. Optional ODD stacks on top for squarer console than usual - slim drive needn't add too much - so kinda Apple TV/Amazon Fire TV. Defers cost of movie playback to specific users, dropping entry level price. Power users can be wooed with the possibility of adding dual flash carts at whatever speed for faster operation, and replacing HDD with larger/faster drive. And for a final foray into dream-land, base units can be stacked to work in parallel replacing the need for mid-gen refreshes. As the generation progresses and the base unit gets cheaper, more users will buy additional stacks. A new console generation won't be needed for 15 years, simply because the average stack size of 24 units by then will be too top-heavy and liable to fall over.

Your dream's not too far removed from my own.

I'm predicting a two tier launch wherein the base console is sold at a loss, but the enhanced console sold at a profit.

Base PS5:
- 16GB HBM3
- ~4GB LPDDR4 for the home screen and apps.
- 50-100GB SSDD/Flash (user upgradeable)
- 500GB-1TB HDD (user upgradeable)
- 2 x 4-core Zen clocked at least at 3.2GHz for easy 60fps versions of 30fps PS4 games.
- Approximately 16TF GPU so that developers can do to the 1080p modes of PS4Pro titles what the X1X can do to XBoxOne titles.
- UHD BR drive

Enhanced PS5:
Two base consoles combined. A single console, with a single ODD and single HDD, but two separate SoC's in line with the above, but clocked higher, and each with their own SSDD.
So, the enhanced console is just two upclocked base consoles that can function separately or in unison. Any multiplayer game becomes a split screen experience with no effort from the developer, any game may have a dramatically enhanced mode, and it could deliver a full 4K image, per eye, in VR.
Just make it big and quiet.

New PSP:
- 8GB HBM low power
- ~2GB LPDDR4 for the home screen and apps.
- ~8GB flash memory as cache (user upgradeable, but Sony proprietary)
- 32GB MicroSD (user upgradeable + empty second MicroSD port)
- 4-core Zen clocked at 1.6GHz, and a ~2TFlop GPU for easy ports of PS4 games.

They aren't automatically backwards compatible, but a low cost, largely automated conversion process (think converting music from WAV to MP3) would have to convert to the new PSP as the baseline. This would massively swell the catalogue of all three devices and solidify them as a cohesive platform. The conversion process would give all parties a chance to deal with any licensing issues, and would sort the wheat from the chaff, because the very worst supported titles would be unlikely to get the conversion treatment.
 
It was late so I should have probably worded myself a bit better. I'm guessing a Switch successor would show up around 2021 or 2022. Where do you guys think Nvidia's mobile technology will be around that time?

I can't wait to see what Nvidia's mobile SoC successor to Xavier is, on 7nm or 7nm+ and post-Volta GPU architecture. Whatever that is, the Switch successor will probably use a downclocked version of around the time frame you mentioned.
 
I can't wait to see what Nvidia's mobile SoC successor to Xavier is, on 7nm or 7nm+ and post-Volta GPU architecture. Whatever that is, the Switch successor will probably use a downclocked version of around the time frame you mentioned.

I'm kind of curious though, since it seems most of the successors to the Switch's SoC are going to be for smart cars. I wonder if the Switch will be enough of a success to get Nvidia to put the time and effort into a new gaming focused SoC.

The fact that the thing can run Doom and Wolfenstein 2 (albeit with lower textures, resolution and half the frame rate) is impressive. It's kind of exciting to think of what the next Switch will be able to do.
 
intel not yet annunced nuc , may be we should think about transistor budget refeering to a cpu and discrete gpu, not using 2013 apu transistor count , tdp envelope

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I'm kind of curious though, since it seems most of the successors to the Switch's SoC are going to be for smart cars. I wonder if the Switch will be enough of a success to get Nvidia to put the time and effort into a new gaming focused SoC.

The fact that the thing can run Doom and Wolfenstein 2 (albeit with lower textures, resolution and half the frame rate) is impressive. It's kind of exciting to think of what the next Switch will be able to do.
If the Switch sells in confidence inspiring numbers, the volume is there to make a special version for Nintendo.
 
CES 2018 Innovation Awards won by Samsung for their 16Gb GDDR6 Memory.

https://news.samsung.com/global/sam...ngineering-with-36-ces-2018-innovation-awards

The fastest and lowest-power DRAM for next generation, graphics-intensive applications. It processes images and video at 16Gbps with 64GB/s data I/O bandwidth, which is equivalent to transferring approximately 12 full-HD DVDs (5GB equivalent) per second. The new DRAM can operate at 1.35 volts, offering further advantages over today’s graphics memory that uses 1.5V at only 8Gbps
16 of those 16Gb GDDR6 chips would give 32GB with a total bandwidth of 1024GB/s. Perfect harmony. Next gen redeemed. A world without sin. :yep2:
 
CES 2018 Innovation Awards are given 2 months before CES 2018?

16 of those 16Gb GDDR6 chips would give 32GB with a total bandwidth of 1024GB/s. Perfect harmony. Next gen redeemed. A world without sin. :yep2:

Yeah, but HBM3 will use less power and motherboard space. Perfect harmony. Next gen redeemed. Why are we here, only to suffer? :yep2:
 
That is impressive that 32GB of GDDR6 can provide 1024 GB/s (1TB/s) bandwidth. It makes me think there's a realistic chance for next-gen consoles having 1 TB/s bandwidth, be that from GDDR6 or HBM3.
 
Another thing that's becoming clear to me is that with the diminishing returns of resolution increases, I'd rather have a higher ration of cpu to gpu than they had with the ps4/xbox one era. There should be enough cpu that 60fps in open world games like GTA, Assassin's Creed is not an issue. Here they're talking about having potential cpu related frame drops in a small-scale linear game.
It'd make some sense to have a beefier CPU at the start of a gen if we're going with rolling generations from now on where they can just have a fatter GPU in the mid-gen refresh while sticking somewhat closely to the original CPU. The games would just scale the sampling amount automagically.
 
I think we will be sticking with 4K in the mainstream for the foreseeable future, ten years or more. TV makers will try to sell 8K but do consumers care?

But MS/Sony/AMD has shown that they prioritize GPU over CPU. Somehow TFLOPS became a marketing bullet point this gen. It's literally on the box of the XBox X. If things stay the same, the GPU will be about twice the die size as the CPU next gen. We're probably getting a Threadsipper instead of a Threadripper.
 
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