Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

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Eteric said:
What do you guys think the Switch successor will be using?
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Probably (and hopefully) chips that are still in the making.

Unless you mean a *new* 3ds type upgrado ; so a *new* Nintendo switch. For which I could see them simply using tegra X2 and adding some ram.

For an out and out successor id expect something between ps4 and the pro (docked) with a better CPU. Assuming Nintendo keeps up with modern designs.
 
I expect Nintendo to be in no rush for a Switch successor even if the tech is available. They like to make money on hardware + hardware power is just not a priority to them. I expect we get a long lasting iteration cycle similar to DS/3DS/2DS....

Whenever a 7nm Tegra SoC becomes available add a year or two on that and you might see an update.
 
My updated revision:
24 TF
48 GB of GDDR5 memory or less with equivalent bandwidth
3TB HDD

Works out to be about 4x the power of scorpio and 16x the power of the base models. Which is imo a proper leap for a generation.
 
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iroboto said:
My updated revision:
24 TF (of todays flops)
48 GB of (todays) memory or less with equivalent bandwidth
3TB HDD

Works out to be about 4x the power of scorpio and 16x the power of the base models. Which is imo a proper leap for a generation.
Click to expand...

I feel like we will be waiting a while if those are the specs they are going with..
 
mpg1 said:
I feel like we will be waiting a while if those are the specs they are going with..
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yea man. I think so too.

Looking at least 4 years from now. At the very least.
There is this desire to see 60fps gaming for instance. 12TF @ 60 is about the same as 6TF @ 30fps.
Then you factor in any new reconstruction methods, and all of a sudden 6TF can with the proper downgrades provide a similar image quality (at less fps) then the next gen machine.

I dont' think sony or MS want to release next gen in which Scorpio could be competitive.

I'd almost feel, you'd be better off removing the exclusive clauses on the base models in 2-3 years time.
Make Pro and X the main console for another 3-4 years, then release next gen.
At first this seemed silly to me, but if Pro becomes the base model, developers will fully expose the hardware, RPM, ID Buffer and anything else it has. It could be very competitive and $100 cheaper, and it is the magical $399 price point.
 
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iroboto said:
My updated revision:
24 TF (of todays flops)
48 GB of (todays) memory or less with equivalent bandwidth
3TB HDD

Works out to be about 4x the power of scorpio and 16x the power of the base models. Which is imo a proper leap for a generation.
Click to expand...
When you say today's memory what do you mean? Because it'd probably take at *least* gddr5x on a 512 bit bus to not cripple that much power

Otherwise I agree I think it'd be best to wait until 2021 now that X and Pro are out.
 
Four years is a long time for Sony to run on PS4 Imo, especially if two years from now a cheapified X1X is feeding what people expect from consoles at mass market prices.

I think Sony will have to launch with something that doesn't blow Scorpio out of the water. They'll be fine with something that's merely "significantly faster" - maybe 2 ~3 times. 7nm should let them do that ... probably.
 
phoenix_chipset said:
When you say today's memory what do you mean? Because it'd probably take at *least* gddr5x on a 512 bit bus to not cripple that much power

Otherwise I agree I think it'd be best to wait until 2021 now that X and Pro are out.
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I'm just looking at bandwidth numbers. I don't know if GDDR6 will be out by then.
 
function said:
Four years is a long time for Sony to run on PS4 Imo, especially if two years from now a cheapified X1X is feeding what people expect from consoles at mass market prices.

I think Sony will have to launch with something that doesn't blow Scorpio out of the water. They'll be fine with something that's merely "significantly faster" - maybe 2 ~3 times. 7nm should let them do that ... probably.
Click to expand...
1080TI today is 11.3 TF.
7nm better be 1 hell of a node shrink.
 
I'm trying some 2019-2020 cost projections based loosely on past BOMs.

$120 for a 15TF SoC
$5/GB if using GDDR6
$5/GB if using HBM (samsung's low cost hbm)
$10 for an interposer
$150 rest of BOM, psu, odd, hdd, m/b, cooling, etc...

(A) Total BOM using GDDR6 384 bits (768GB/s):

18GB: $360
24GB: $390
36GB: $450

(B) Total BOM using low-cost HBM 4 stacks (800GB/s)

No idea what the interposer/assembly yield problem looks like, but I thought it would be fun to try a range of 90% to 99% per die. (4 stacks being 5 dies on the interposer)

90% yield: (^5 = 59%)
16GB: $505
32GB: $641

95% yield: (^5 = 77%)
16GB: $422
32GB: $526

98% yield: (^5 = 90%)
16GB: $394
32GB: $472

99% yield: (^5 = 95%)
16GB: $381
32GB: $455
 
MrFox said:
I'm trying some 2019-2020 cost projections based loosely on past BOMs.

$120 for a 15TF SoC
$5/GB if using GDDR6
$5/GB if using HBM (samsung's low cost hbm)
$10 for an interposer
$150 rest of BOM, psu, odd, hdd, m/b, cooling, etc...

(A) Total BOM using GDDR6 384 bits (768GB/s):

18GB: $360
24GB: $390
36GB: $450

(B) Total BOM using low-cost HBM 4 stacks (800GB/s)

No idea what the interposer/assembly yield problem looks like, but I thought it would be fun to try a range of 90% to 99% per die. (4 stacks being 5 dies on the interposer)

90% yield: (^5 = 59%)
16GB: $505
32GB: $641

95% yield: (^5 = 77%)
16GB: $422
32GB: $526

98% yield: (^5 = 90%)
16GB: $394
32GB: $472

99% yield: (^5 = 95%)
16GB: $381
32GB: $455
Click to expand...
I like what you've started with here. We should really build upon this foundation. I wanted to do something similar, but was hoping someone else would do the heavy lifting ;)
 
2020 is a nice round number for devs prepping for their next big title after this year is done.
 
iroboto said:
1080TI today is 11.3 TF.
7nm better be 1 hell of a node shrink.
Click to expand...

Well, more like two nodes. ;)

I think a Vega 64 level GPU could be down to within a console power envelope by 7nm, and along with architectural advances 2 ~ 3 times Scorpio's power is achievable. GDDR6 on a 256-bit but should be getting you the same kind of BW too. 8 x 16 gb chips would give you 16 GB (32 in clamshell) with maybe 13GB for games. And on the CPU front, 2 x 4 Zen+ cores could reasonably get you 2 x the CPU performance with reasonable power.

I think it's do-able by 2019 or 2020. When it's economically viable for a $400 machine (assuming that's the target again) is a different matter though.
 
Saw a headline the other day that MS intends to deploy game streaming in a couple of years.

Does that mean they will no longer develop new console hardware?

I guess it will depend on the sales of the X1X over the next few years.
 
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