I had thought so too but I’m no longer sure.
Nvidia's 3000 Series RTX GPU [3090s with different memory capacity]
- Thread starter Shortbread
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Tell that to literally anyone who has built a "gaming PC" in the last 16 months.
Five months ago, I paid $2099 plus 9.25% sales tax for my EVGA 3080TI FTW3 because it's the card I wanted, it was in stock, and it was from a sufficiently reputable seller to assume succes versus the two separate times I was ripped off on eBay. During both eBay experiences, I partially knew what to expect and had sufficient photographic evidence to get full refunds.
Supply chain is still limted, not only for getting NVIDIA cards to customers (the obvious) but actually getting the source lithography done. All those tiny individual parts on the PCB have their own individual supply chain issues, it isn't just "well miners therefore scalpers therefore no supply." We've been over this before, and yet somehow we still get this massive oversimplification of a heavily nuanced topic which then gets handwaved into "but miners!!!"
When ETH moves off GPU's, then provided a new cryto doesn't move in to take it's place (which is possible although likely not to the same degree of profitably and thus demand) then the market should be flooded with second hand GPU's which will hopefully induce a price crash, even on the brand new cards. And once consumers have experienced thos kinds of prices it will be very difficult for the IHV's to drive them up to their current crazy levels again with the next generation.
The point is that that is almost certainly far, far less people than would have otherwise bought GPU's had they currently been selling for MSRP and supply was available. People like me, who are desperate for a new GPU - and can afford current prices - will simply hold out, or even worse (for PC gaming) move to console because they simply can't justify spending that much on a single GPU.
But is the gap big enough to offset the far higher profits earned at these prices? Reading around various forums and it came as quite a surprise to me how many people are willing to just shrug and pay these prices. My mindset is the same as yours, I'd quit PC gaming/move to consoles but we may be in the minority. I'm not convinced the used GPU market has ever posed a real threat to new GPUs.
The gaming notebook market is growing rapidly. Just because the desktop pc is limited doesnt mean the gaming pc market has a problem.
DegustatoR
Legend
Because it's not nuanced at all. dGPU prices are directly linked to mining profitability and has been adjusting accordingly for the whole of 2021. There are no supply issues to speak about, the output volume of both Nv and AMD are at a record high level. The issue is mining, plain and simple.
arandomguy
Veteran
A large part of the pricing discussion is related to consumer psychology. Let's say Nvidia Lovelace follows trends with higher RT perf gains and new features with GL106 is >GA104 in raster perf. This results in the top SKU being 3070ti +10% with 12GB at $400 and the cutdown with 12GB ~3060ti at $300. However even the cutdown GL102 SKUs is well over $1000.
Did pricing go up or down? You're getting more for your money at each price point even through the product stratification has obviously shifted. The relative "high end" does become higher priced. I know for someone people psychology a RTX 4060 could be as fast a RTX 3080 but if it's priced at $400 or higher yet still well below $700 they'll consider a price an increase. The new RTX 4080 could completely breach a new product tier essentially being well over 50% faster than the RTX 3090, but if it's priced at $1500 it would be considered a price increase even though there's that RTX 4060 offering RTX 3080 perf for much less. How does this stack up to the consoles?
You're getting well above console perf at $400 and arguably $300 even accounting for the PC/console optimization issue with multiplatform games.
The market for PC hardware has changed. It's become much larger and mainstream and with that it means the customer base is much more diverse in terms of willingness and ability to spend. If we look at other hobbies quite frankly the price spread between the the various segments in GPU was too low likely to reflect what the market wanted. A lot of people bring up the $500 good old days for the top end, but if we think about that's a very small gap between what your top customers are paying vs. mid vs low. A 10x+ spread between the high end and mainstream is pretty typical for many other luxury hobbies/goods. From a nominal cost stand point a $1000+ or even $2000+ expenditure every 2-4 years (or longer, a lot of these high end buyers are buying for "longevity") as a primary (if not sole) hobby expenditure for "middle class" type consumer in a developed country is quite manageable. It's not even high comparatively speaking for what other people in that income bracket might be spending on.
GPU shipments for 2021 vs 2020 are up by something like 25% which is significant increase in the amount of supply. This is contrast to something like the PS5 which is actually have trouble ramping supply. PS5 shipments are having trouble keeping pace with PS4 shipments (shipments not sales) at the same point in their lifespan, Sony has had to continually revised downwards shipping forecasts due to the inability to secure components.
The consoles are actually facing difficulties with supply. I suspect is a likely result of the difference in price flexibility between the two different products. Realistically given market conditions they should be raising prices to account for increased costs when dealing with suppliers but that doesn't fit the business model. Whereas the higher prices of GPUs also by extension result in more buying power with suppliers, hence why we see GPU shipments managed to increase substantially despite the overall shortages. I don't think people should be under the impression that any one party is making more from the GPU situation, everyone is making more including the suppliers/logistics for Nvidia and the AiBs. The only people making more off the consoles is actually resellers, if anything given rising costs I wouldn't be surprised if Sony/MS and the retailers carrying them with no markup are making less then they otherwise would be.
Did pricing go up or down? You're getting more for your money at each price point even through the product stratification has obviously shifted. The relative "high end" does become higher priced. I know for someone people psychology a RTX 4060 could be as fast a RTX 3080 but if it's priced at $400 or higher yet still well below $700 they'll consider a price an increase. The new RTX 4080 could completely breach a new product tier essentially being well over 50% faster than the RTX 3090, but if it's priced at $1500 it would be considered a price increase even though there's that RTX 4060 offering RTX 3080 perf for much less. How does this stack up to the consoles?
You're getting well above console perf at $400 and arguably $300 even accounting for the PC/console optimization issue with multiplatform games.
The market for PC hardware has changed. It's become much larger and mainstream and with that it means the customer base is much more diverse in terms of willingness and ability to spend. If we look at other hobbies quite frankly the price spread between the the various segments in GPU was too low likely to reflect what the market wanted. A lot of people bring up the $500 good old days for the top end, but if we think about that's a very small gap between what your top customers are paying vs. mid vs low. A 10x+ spread between the high end and mainstream is pretty typical for many other luxury hobbies/goods. From a nominal cost stand point a $1000+ or even $2000+ expenditure every 2-4 years (or longer, a lot of these high end buyers are buying for "longevity") as a primary (if not sole) hobby expenditure for "middle class" type consumer in a developed country is quite manageable. It's not even high comparatively speaking for what other people in that income bracket might be spending on.
GPU shipments for 2021 vs 2020 are up by something like 25% which is significant increase in the amount of supply. This is contrast to something like the PS5 which is actually have trouble ramping supply. PS5 shipments are having trouble keeping pace with PS4 shipments (shipments not sales) at the same point in their lifespan, Sony has had to continually revised downwards shipping forecasts due to the inability to secure components.
The consoles are actually facing difficulties with supply. I suspect is a likely result of the difference in price flexibility between the two different products. Realistically given market conditions they should be raising prices to account for increased costs when dealing with suppliers but that doesn't fit the business model. Whereas the higher prices of GPUs also by extension result in more buying power with suppliers, hence why we see GPU shipments managed to increase substantially despite the overall shortages. I don't think people should be under the impression that any one party is making more from the GPU situation, everyone is making more including the suppliers/logistics for Nvidia and the AiBs. The only people making more off the consoles is actually resellers, if anything given rising costs I wouldn't be surprised if Sony/MS and the retailers carrying them with no markup are making less then they otherwise would be.
Thats some intresting points you have there. To get ps5 performance on pc youd be looking at 5700xt or 6700/6700xt if your not against RT. Perhaps 6600xt or 3060/ti. All of a sudden its not that expensive. But many also want much more performance then that.
Or buy a laptop, for about 1500USD your looking at a 115/130w 3070m which should be above what the consoles have to offer all things considered. Laptops dont have the mining problem.
Or buy a laptop, for about 1500USD your looking at a 115/130w 3070m which should be above what the consoles have to offer all things considered. Laptops dont have the mining problem.
Analysts claimed 25% of all gpus sold in the first part of 2021 went to miners.
https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-new...-by-crypto-miners-in-early-2021-alone-2973241
GPU shipments increased by 25% in 2021
https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/gpu-shipments-increased-by-25-percent-despite-shortage/
Ampere increased by nearly 2% on steam's charts from december to january, gpu's and laptops. We're around 25% of steam for Turing and Ampere now
https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-new...-by-crypto-miners-in-early-2021-alone-2973241
GPU shipments increased by 25% in 2021
https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/gpu-shipments-increased-by-25-percent-despite-shortage/
Ampere increased by nearly 2% on steam's charts from december to january, gpu's and laptops. We're around 25% of steam for Turing and Ampere now
arandomguy
Veteran
Just going follow up on the GPU and console supply/demand issue with some sources. I've seen this being brought up as a counter argument in various other places as well, so I think it might be good to source some of the information so not just someone pulling up "facts" out of thin air.
Graphics Cards unit shipments -
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/jpr-q3-2021-desktop-discrete-gpu-shipments
Remember the mining impact did not happen until 2021. Companies however were already experiencing supply chain issues in 2020 with Covid.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ion-5-assembly-plans-after-chip-shortages-hit
So I was actually wrong with old data. Apparently it's fallen behind the PS4 in sales at the same point now due to lack of supply. It's important to note that the PS4 was released to market conditions over 7+ years ago, even sans Covid spurred demand you'd have expected a growth in demand. At this point in the PS4's lifespan supply had crossed over with demand already.
https://www.gamesradar.com/nintendo...fewer-switch-consoles-than-planned-this-year/
It's also worth considering for gaming GPU purchases that there indirect effects from mining changing what those buyers are willing to pay. If a gamer buys a GPU they will be willing to pay more if they essentially resell their existing GPU for more, or mine on the side. If say you overpay by $400 for your GPU you aren't looking to ROI on the MSRP+$400, but just as much of that $400 as possible. If you say only make back $300 that means you actually overpaid $100, not $400. If you resold your 5700XT and bought 6700XT did you even overpay compared to a market with no mining?
Graphics Cards unit shipments -
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/jpr-q3-2021-desktop-discrete-gpu-shipments
Remember the mining impact did not happen until 2021. Companies however were already experiencing supply chain issues in 2020 with Covid.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ion-5-assembly-plans-after-chip-shortages-hit
So I was actually wrong with old data. Apparently it's fallen behind the PS4 in sales at the same point now due to lack of supply. It's important to note that the PS4 was released to market conditions over 7+ years ago, even sans Covid spurred demand you'd have expected a growth in demand. At this point in the PS4's lifespan supply had crossed over with demand already.
https://www.gamesradar.com/nintendo...fewer-switch-consoles-than-planned-this-year/
It's also worth considering for gaming GPU purchases that there indirect effects from mining changing what those buyers are willing to pay. If a gamer buys a GPU they will be willing to pay more if they essentially resell their existing GPU for more, or mine on the side. If say you overpay by $400 for your GPU you aren't looking to ROI on the MSRP+$400, but just as much of that $400 as possible. If you say only make back $300 that means you actually overpaid $100, not $400. If you resold your 5700XT and bought 6700XT did you even overpay compared to a market with no mining?
DegustatoR
Legend
Which consoles? I've bought both XSS and PS5 for their respective local MSRPs. Granted it was harder to find the PS5 but still it is very possible.
DavidGraham
Veteran
Lets get something clear first: the majority of PC gamers wouldn't even switch to consoles even if they pay double/triple the price, PC gamers are a wide variety of people: there is visual enthusiasts seeking max graphics fidelity and resolution, there is performance enthusiasts seeking max fps, there is e-sports enthusiasts, there is gamers who play PC exclusives (RTSs, MOBAs, MMORPGs), there is pirates who prefer getting their gaming fix through pirated games (and those represent some seriously large portion of PC gaming), there is modders, there is those that hate anything but the mouse and keyboard, there is laptop gamers who always play on the move, there is VR gamers, there is people who mix gaming and mining, there is content creators who mix working and gaming .. etc, etc.
Only the most casual PC gamers will consider the switch to consoles, otherwise, most PC gamers are entrenched to the platform, and they will stick to it and upgrade when it suits them regardless of the price.
Only the most casual PC gamers will consider the switch to consoles, otherwise, most PC gamers are entrenched to the platform, and they will stick to it and upgrade when it suits them regardless of the price.
Huh? Miners were definitely issue in 2020 already.
Not that expensive? In USA a 3060ti costs $1000. Who wants to pay 2-2.5x the price of an entire console just for a GPU alone that is very similar in performance?
arandomguy
Veteran
There was some growth in mining demand but the price take off did not occur until the very end of 2020 and the turn into 2021 at which point the growth trajectory went considerably higher. The preceding 5 month growth rate was 50% versus 208% for the next 5 months.
But I should mention what I intended to actually say was the price explosion in GPUs wasn't until 2021 despite supply increasing. The interesting thing here is Nvidia was giving guidance that they expected GPU availability to be much better after Q1 of 2021 during 2020 post Ampere release. This seems to make sense if they were expecting an increase of 20%+ in supply with no demand (or possibly less demand as more gamers bought in, and demand is typically lowest in Q1 after Q4). Crypto rocketing up post Dec/2021 however completely changed the demand situation.
DegustatoR
Legend
2020 launch prices for both Ampere and RDNA2 were inflated by large gaming demand and low initial supply (this is hardly something new btw, happens at each new GPU family launch if it provides big perf/price gains). The supply became adequate at the end of the year though and if not for miners it would be well enough to deal with gaming demand over the first couple of months of 2021.
And, there is those who want the middle-land, pc gamers are getting all pc exclusives, xbox exclusives and now PS exclusives aswell, more often then not the best versions of those versions aswell as the technically best versions of cross-platform games. Emulation and BC is also a thing, on pc you have PS2, PSX, gamecube, wii..... i could go on forever, aswell as almost all pc games since the beginning.
Thats indeed very expensive for that gpu, im not seeing these prices where i am (luckily), still too high but not a 1000 bucks for a 3060 class gpu. Also, how similar? a 3060Ti is faster in rasterization, and a whole bunch faster when ray tracing. DLSS cant be discounted, either. Now im not saying a 1000 dollars worth of better for just the GPU, but for some, its not just the added performance.
Yeah, it seems that consoles are not any better off with all this going on, if not worse so. Here in sweden its incredibly hard to get a PS5 at mrsp, your certainly looking at double the price if not more if you want one before were close to half the generation time-line. That and the price increase for games, its not all that 'cheap' anymore there either. PSVR2 also seems to aim for more money then we used to.
Anyway, if your on say a 1060/1070 (pascal) level of performance now, its an idea to go for a gaming laptop to sit this one out (mining, shortage etc). For around 1500USD your getting 3070m, 8 core zen3, 16 to 32gb ram and PCIE4 nvme ssd setups. With quite good screen, kb/touchpad, build-in UPS, speakers and their portable.
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