Nvidia Shows Signs in [2022]

[trinibwoy]

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2023

NVIDIA today reported revenue for the third quarter ended October 30, 2022, of $5.93 billion, down 17% from a year ago and down 12% from the previous quarter.

nvidianews.nvidia.com

Gaming revenue half of same quarter last year, inventory up 100% from last year to $4.5B. But they are saved from posting an outright terrible result by growing data center revenue 31% YoY, to $3.83B, or now 2.4 times as much as their entire gaming revenue. Total revenue is down 17% YoY, income down 72% YoY.

Their balance sheet is worrying, though, and appears to prove MLID right on at least something. They have both $4.5B of inventory, and a total of about ~$4B of pre-paid assets (... where they hid the non-current part under "other non-current assets". Not illegal, but given they have not done that before, also not a good look. Rather drawing the eye where they don't want you to look.) Given how inventory is on balance sheet on basis of cost, not value, they are probably sitting on more than a year's sales worth of inventory + pre-paid fab allocations. And that's at normal sales numbers. If you assume that past quarter was representative of gaming sales for the near future, they will probably still be selling GA102-based cards next summer.

That’s rough. They don’t seem to be aggressively trying to rid themselves of that inventory though. I still can’t find a 3050 anywhere near MSRP.

 

[Jawed]

Taking the hit now in order to improve future quarters?

 

[tunafish]

I think the problem is that their AIB partners also have tons of 30-series inventory, to the point where if nVidia starts agressively cutting prices their partners will go bankrupt.

I think this mostly explains what is going on in the market. nVidia would be capable of selling lower-tier 40-series cards at costs where they would be very appealing, but if they did that both they and their partners would have to write down billions of dollars of inventory. Instead, they are trickle releasing new cards at price points above the 30-series, to keep the old stuff more appealing. They'd rather sell less than take the hit.

If their data center sales keep up with the current trajectory, at least that will probably solve the issue of prepaid wafer starts.

 

[Jawed]

I think the problem is that their AIB partners also have tons of 30-series inventory, to the point where if nVidia starts agressively cutting prices their partners will go bankrupt.

Are any of them public, i.e. would publish figures indicating this?

 

[DegustatoR]

I think this mostly explains what is going on in the market. nVidia would be capable of selling lower-tier 40-series cards at costs where they would be very appealing, but if they did that both they and their partners would have to write down billions of dollars of inventory. Instead, they are trickle releasing new cards at price points above the 30-series, to keep the old stuff more appealing. They'd rather sell less than take the hit.

4080 just launched here at prices well below what most of 3090+ are selling at.

 

[Malo]

4080 just launched here at prices well below what most of 3090+ are selling at.

You mean what they're listed at. No one is buying that tiny amount of leftover 3090's listed on Amazon or BestBuy by 3rd parties for ridiculous prices that only the 0.1% idiot rich would buy. There's always listing of no longer available equipment for high prices in many consumer electronics categories.

 

[DegustatoR]

You mean what they're listed at.

Yes.

No one is buying that tiny amount of leftover 3090's listed on Amazon or BestBuy by 3rd parties for ridiculous prices that only the 0.1% idiot rich would buy.

Yet still there they are. Which goes against the idea of Nvidia pricing the 40 series in such a way as to allow the rest of Ampere to sell off.

 

[Malo]

Yet still there they are. Which goes against the idea of Nvidia pricing the 40 series in such a way as to allow the rest of Ampere to sell off.

If that helps you win your narrative in your own head, then sure. No one else here not obsessed with Nvidia would consider it such. The fact is those listings on Amazon etc. are by 3rd parties, AIBs have no stock left. That pricing has nothing to do with Nvidia, or the AIBs. The AIBs listings on their sites are still there and they're listed at sub-$1,000.

 

[DegustatoR]

If that helps you win your narrative in your own head, then sure. No one else here not obsessed with Nvidia would consider it such. The fact is those listings on Amazon etc. are by 3rd parties, AIBs have no stock left. That pricing has nothing to do with Nvidia, or the AIBs. The AIBs listings on their sites are still there and they're listed at sub-$1,000.

I have no idea why you're talking about Amazon etc when I clearly said "here", as in where I am.

Also if it does something to something in your head I know the local AIB bulk selling prices on 4080 and they are in fact rather low. To a point where I don't think any 3080 was ever hitting during it's lifetime.

 

[CarstenS]

I have no idea why you're talking about Amazon etc when I clearly said "here", as in where I am.

For where I am (germany), this is not true. Cheapest 4080s above 1500 Euros, 3090s for 1150 well below that justifying any differences in perf/tech, only 3090 TI's at 1400 and rather unattractive. Your (unknown) location may deviate though.

 

[Kaotik]

For where I am (germany), this is not true. Cheapest 4080s above 1500 Euros, 3090s for 1150 well below that justifying any differences in perf/tech, only 3090 TI's at 1400 and rather unattractive. Your (unknown) location may deviate though.

Finland reports in with RTX 4080 @ 1500€+ not selling out and those are just the initial subsidized batch apparently, since most are listed around 1700€++
3090's are listed at ~1250€+ and 3090 Ti's at ~1500-1600€

 

[Deleted member 2197]

 

[del42sa]

Nvidia and Samsung partnership revived at 3nm ?

https://www.computerbase.de/2022-11/3-nm-chips-samsung-gewinnt-nvidia-qualcomm-ibm-und-mehr-zurueck/
https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202211220027

 

[Dampf]

Nvidia and Samsung partnership revived at 3nm ?

https://www.computerbase.de/2022-11/3-nm-chips-samsung-gewinnt-nvidia-qualcomm-ibm-und-mehr-zurueck/
https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202211220027

Oh no... Hopefully they stay with TSMC.

 

[DavidGraham]

A comparison of Q3 results across NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597426551695454209

 

[DegustatoR]

Oh no... Hopefully they stay with TSMC.

You like 40 series prices?

 

[trinibwoy]

Those are some great charts. TSMC has everyone by the balls.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Those are some great charts. TSMC has everyone by the balls.

GAAP without non GAAP never tells the full story just the same as in inverse.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Uhh, why is everyone's charts Year to Year except for NV which is Quarter to Quarter in those graphs? Basically NV's graph isn't comparable to anyone else in that tweet.

[edit] Here are the comparable numbers for NV Year to Year GAAP numbers.

• Revenue down 17%
• Operating expenses up 31%
• Operating income down 77%
• Net income down 72%

NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2023

NVIDIA today reported revenue for the third quarter ended October 30, 2022, of $5.93 billion, down 17% from a year ago and down 12% from the previous quarter.

nvidianews.nvidia.com

For AMD

• Revenue up 29%
• Operating Expenses up 113%
• Operating Income down 107%
• Net income down 93%

It's bad for everyone.

I'd do the same for Non-GAAP, since the numbers change significantly for that, but don't have time.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 2197]

December 3, 2022