Except this time there is widespread adoption of viable alternatives to budget PCs, ala tablets.
That's true for the RISC/Unix/Linux/etc. rants from the minority of users.
But not true for the notebook/laptop "revolution" that happened in the late 90's early 2000's as notebooks and laptops became affordable (1000 USD and less). At that time you saw the same predictions as we're now having with tablets due to notebooks and laptops taking away significant market share from desktops.
And while desktops saw a brief drop in sales (around the release of WinXP we saw an almost exact same dip in desktop sales as we're seeing in PC sales currently), market share eventually stabilized and desktop sales went on the rise again.
I'm expecting something similar here as tablets become more ubiquitous and the novelty wears off (wanting to upgrade every year). Just as it did with notebooks where people felt they had to upgrade their notebook every 1-2 years. And where after X amount of years everyone that was going to replace their desktop had already replaced their desktop. And then some of which started buying desktops again.
The only thing I can see changing this dynamic is if tablets became true computing devices with a full blown OS. Either Microsoft with Win8 or Apple with MacOS. Something capable of running everything (productivity and entertainment) that can be run on a desktop. But for that to happen we also need the hardware for tablets to increase significantly in power, although Intel is quite close already. As someone on this forum has mentioned (sorry I can't remember your name) in a thread somewhere, Clovertrail based tablets can already handle all of his productivity software smoothly with the exception of large Excel spreadsheets (lots of data, not screen size.
). If Intel can get i7 or even i5 based performance into something in the 8-10 hour battery range at bit of a weight reduction, then I think we might be there.
Then again, does that change anything since it's still basically a PC even if it's a tablet?
Regards,
SB