NVIDIA GF100 & Friends speculation

[jimbo75]

That hardly matters. Even if the 5890 slots in at $400 and the 5870 drops in price the 5970 is still only $600 and will be faster than a 5890 and cost less than two 5890s to warrent the cost.

Tho in june i'm sure amd can release a 5980 with fasters clocks also.

My concern would be ATI releasing the eyefinity6 in 3 weeks time, then a 5890 being released a month later and probably being a superior 3-screen eyefinity option.

It's also worth remembering that the 4890's appearance was due in part to the 4870's terrible overclockability. The 5870 is a lot better in that respect, so really what is this 5890 going to be? I have to agree with Tchock, the chances of us seeing a 5890 are pretty low.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Is that really accurate?

Heck, prices are actually still higher than launch for 5850/5870. That's what happens when Nvidia can't get a product out the door. It's not like you can even get GTX275/295 instead - they are all out of stock, even worse than the ATI cards.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I still haven't seen much of Daves product penetrating the laptop space though. I go into the shop, have a wander around the laptop section and I feel dirty seeing all the 4xxx laptops and Nvidia last generation GPU models. Where are the new ones?

Juniper is around about the "enthusiast" level for the notebook space. And the Mobility Radeon HD 5000's are appearing - Xbit rouned up a few a while back.

 

[leoneazzurro]

There are also other notebooks than those listed in the market or going to appear soon, i.e. Asus x64/n61, X72, X77, K52, G73, Acer 5740/7740, 8942, MSI GX640 and 740, Packard Bell EasyNote TJ75, Sony Vaio VPC-EB1M1E/EC1S1E, . There are (finally) also some Clevo chassis supporting the 5xxx series. Fermi on mobile seems to have a very long way to go, it seems Nvidia is launching a GTX285M still G92 based, and there is no hint about DX11 parts coming down the pipe.

 

[trinibwoy]

I know slightly OT, but what's your native rez? I'm on a 23", 19x12 and enthusiast with 2xAA and 8xAF works nicely with occasional chugs. Not CoD fast, but very purdy.

The usual deal on 30" - 25x16. Twice the pixel count of 19x12

 

[Mize]

The usual deal on 30" - 25x16. Twice the pixel count of 19x12

xfire 5970s or 480s in sli should do the trick

 

[rjc]

Heck, prices are actually still higher than launch for 5850/5870. That's what happens when Nvidia can't get a product out the door. It's not like you can even get GTX275/295 instead - they are all out of stock, even worse than the ATI cards.

I think the above is really the wrong way to look at the current graphics card market.

The fundamental problem is that customer demand is too high relative to supply. Even if AMD cut prices of their products by $100 or more the end customer would see no savings, retailers or third parties would absorb that extra $100(ie via ebay or other secondary markets) without any compunction.

The total supply of chips must somehow increase quickly to match demand, as Nvidia and AMD share the same production line which is currently running at capacity that is not really possible in any way.

Whether the current market is sustainable should be concerning the product planners at both companies presently. Many other industries recently have been experiencing a mini inventory restocking bubble that likely wont last much longer. If AMD and Nvidia dial the supply higher and the high demand ends up being only temporary, leaving warehouses full of unsold goods would be disastrous for either of them.

On the other hand continuing with a policy of under-supply does in the very short term increase price, margins and profits quite noticeably as can be seen recently. Long term it will kill their markets prematurely as installed base declines and customers discover they don't need or can substitute their products with alternatives.

Sorry for all the economic type talk...its really hard to explain stuff without using it though

 

[Squilliam]

Juniper is around about the "enthusiast" level for the notebook space. And the Mobility Radeon HD 5000's are appearing - Xbit rouned up a few a while back.

So thats what a design win in January means? Good availability sometime in the middle of the year or so.

 

[aaronspink]

Crysis Warhead benchmarks HD 5870 against GTX 4x0

so give the 5870 a little more ram and it smokes the GTX4x0? This looks bad for nvidia.

 

[aaronspink]

The total supply of chips must somehow increase quickly to match demand, as Nvidia and AMD share the same production line which is currently running at capacity that is not really possible in any way.

Whether the current market is sustainable should be concerning the product planners at both companies presently. Many other industries recently have been experiencing a mini inventory restocking bubble that likely wont last much longer. If AMD and Nvidia dial the supply higher and the high demand ends up being only temporary, leaving warehouses full of unsold goods would be disastrous for either of them.

On the other hand continuing with a policy of under-supply does in the very short term increase price, margins and profits quite noticeably as can be seen recently. Long term it will kill their markets prematurely as installed base declines and customers discover they don't need or can substitute their products with alternatives.

Also don't forget the economic chess game going on with TSMC. Given manufacturing supply constraints, it is in both ATI and Nvidia's interested to eat up as much of that supply as possible to freeze out their competitor. If you can sell at a profit, order more wafers NOW!. This supply constraint is likely going to drive both ATI and Nvidia to split wafer supply for the next gen. Certainly it seems like ATI is better positioned to increase supply than nvidia due to great pricing elasticity.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Also don't forget the economic chess game going on with TSMC. Given manufacturing supply constraints, it is in both ATI and Nvidia's interested to eat up as much of that supply as possible to freeze out their competitor. If you can sell at a profit, order more wafers NOW!. This supply constraint is likely going to drive both ATI and Nvidia to split wafer supply for the next gen. Certainly it seems like ATI is better positioned to increase supply than nvidia due to great pricing elasticity.

Interesting, in that case ATI could offer TSMC more per wafer and still not have each Cypress chip cost more than each Fermi chip.

Is TSMC really that supply bound at 40 nm?

Regards,
SB

 

[ZerazaX]

So thats what a design win in January means? Good availability sometime in the middle of the year or so.

I have an Acer AS5740G with ATI Mobility 5650 in my hands. Seems to be quite available to me.

There are quite a few notebooks with the 5470/5650/5730/5830/5870 out there now, and more models are appearing all the time

 

[rpg.314]

The total supply of chips must somehow increase quickly to match demand, as Nvidia and AMD share the same production line which is currently running at capacity that is not really possible in any way.

Considering that AMD is a flight risk to GF if TSMC makes any more fuck ups, I'd say AMD will be getting better deals off TSMC right now.

 

[sethk]

I still haven't seen much of Daves product penetrating the laptop space though. I go into the shop, have a wander around the laptop section and I feel dirty seeing all the 4xxx laptops and Nvidia last generation GPU models. Where are the new ones?

My 3 week old laptop with a Mobility 5830 (actually more like a desktop 5770) says otherwise.

 

[sethk]

Considering that AMD is a flight risk to GF if TSMC makes any more fuck ups, I'd say AMD will be getting better deals off TSMC right now.

I wonder what Nvidia thinks about using GF as a second source of chips - IIRC they used to use UMC to make some of their chips, but haven't heard anything regarding UMC GPUs in a while.

 

[rpg.314]

I wonder what Nvidia thinks about using GF as a second source of chips - IIRC they used to use UMC to make some of their chips, but haven't heard anything regarding UMC GPUs in a while.

Apparently nv has gone TSMC only in recent times. NV has been insisting that they will stick to TSMC, atleast publicly.

 

[Ailuros]

Apparently nv has gone TSMC only in recent times. NV has been insisting that they will stick to TSMC, atleast publicly.

IMHO nothing is set in stone for the long-run.

 

[eastmen]

My concern would be ATI releasing the eyefinity6 in 3 weeks time, then a 5890 being released a month later and probably being a superior 3-screen eyefinity option.

It's also worth remembering that the 4890's appearance was due in part to the 4870's terrible overclockability. The 5870 is a lot better in that respect, so really what is this 5890 going to be? I have to agree with Tchock, the chances of us seeing a 5890 are pretty low.

Well the 5870 eyeinfinty would come out in March and a 5890 can come in june. Remember it seems the 5870 eyeinfinty is coming out right about when the geforces hit. So ati may already have the eyeinfinty 6 models ready to go at new lower price points.

Also the 5890 may not by cypress. It may be a hecto whatever that other core is that is rumored for 1H 2010.

 

[eastmen]

I wonder what Nvidia thinks about using GF as a second source of chips - IIRC they used to use UMC to make some of their chips, but haven't heard anything regarding UMC GPUs in a while.

Part of the spin off deal and contracts may prevent nvidia from using them. If I were amd I would have done my best to stop nvidia from using my former fabs esp if i still own part of them

 

[rpg.314]

IMHO nothing is set in stone for the long-run.

Of course, it benefits them too if they can play GF against TSMC. They'll have to overcome the "GF is AMD's fab" syndrome first though.