nVidia Conference Call Tomorrow

Discussion in 'Graphics and Semiconductor Industry' started by Beatles, Feb 12, 2003.

  1. Anonymous

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    It is 5 times higher than the average analyst estimate based on CNN Money.
    It is about 2.5 times higher than my estimate.


    Uttar
     
  2. Anonymous

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    Oh, and BTW, Joe, you are not correct.
    $35M exceptional *revenue* doesn't mean $35M profit!
    That means it's probably around $15M exceptional profit. Just a guestimate.
    I guess that question will be asked during the conference call.


    Uttar
     
  3. Anonymous

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    I think if you exclude the xbox settlement (which I assume is what analysts did when they made their 0.06 estimate), the numbers look more like they at least matched expectations. Not sure how the XBOX settlement would affect the amount of income tax paid. If you assume it doesn't affect income tax paid, then I think their earnings come out at 0.063, slightly beating estimates. If it lowers income tax using the tax rate they provided, then they beat it handily with earnings of around 0.105 (back of the envelope calculation, could be wrong...)

    The XBOX thing messes up all sorts of calculations, eg. you can't be sure about the gross margins (although they do appear to be shrinking by 1 or 2% at least since same time last year). And regardless, revenue is decreasing but I don't know offhand whether it is decreasing more rapidly than the overall PC market.
     
  4. ben6

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    excluding XBOX revenue, NVidia had a EPS of 14 cents, so around 2x what the consensus was. Not that bad a quarter when everything is taken into account, really. They have 1.028 Billion in cash and cash equivalents up over 100 million from last quarter
     
  5. TheMightyPuck

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    Am I understanding? X-box revenue makes up that big a portion of Nvidia's bottom line? Wow.
     
  6. cellarboy

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    I'm listening to the Conference Call right now. Jeez, I wish these analysts knew enough about the market and products to actually ask a decent, challenging question.....
     
  7. Beatles

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    They're getting an easy ride and snowing those guys.
     
  8. Richthofen

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    This conference call is definetly entertaining.
    These Nvidia guys are in a pretty good mood.
    With 50 Mio profits i think i would be in that mood too.
    :)
     
  9. cellarboy

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    In response to a question regarding a NV30 refresh, Jensen said, "we are working on something twice as fast as that." No hint at shipping dates. They state that they will be, "shipping the hell", out of the NV30.

    They also claim they will have FX-capable parts "in every market segment" before the end of the first quarter.

    And yep, these guy's are getting an easy ride. Someone phone in and ask a decent question!
     
  10. Joe DeFuria

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    Here's my on significant / relevant issues:

    * Effect of settlement:
    "45 million Relates to sales in prior quarters, 4 million in this quarter." With no settlement, there would be $0.14 per share earnings.
    (Nice one Uttar!)

    * "Cash" of just above $1 Billion.

    * Inventory at 45 days, about where they want to be.

    Going forward:
    * X-Box revenues will decline. Don't know if other platforms will offset reduced x-box revenues.

    * "FX Class" GPUs from $99 and higher are coming...(damn...didn't catch by which timeframe...Q1, H1, or "during the year")

    * Envision PCs as the "center of the electronic home."

    * Expect XBox (or future X-box devices?) to extend into other non gaming areas over time (metioned TiVo devices prior to this as examples of 'computers' in the home.)

    Q&A:

    * Mentioned GeForce4ti and nForce2 as still in allocation "due to high demand."

    * Overall, anticipate margins on the FX product line should be superior to what "they've been shipping recently."

    * Majority of current inventory related to GeForce4 MX.

    * Concentrating on building inventory for GeForceFX family...

    * TSMC yields on 0.13 are in line with expectations....but would like them to be better, and higher capacity, and lower wafer cost. ;)

    * Have 3 GPUs "ramping hard" at TSMC.

    * Majority of revenues this quarter came from nForce2.

    * FX expectations for Q1: ship more than 1.5 million units. (I assume FX product line...wasn't clear...)

    * Still passionate about the enthusiast market. ("More press releases on these products than units sold." ;))

    * Sees a lot of momentum against integrated chipsets going forward, due to gap of "DX6" level graphics integration, vs. upcoming DX9 discrete chips. Market will move back to more external GPUs.

    * Question about NV31/34 and what they are beyond the fact that they are 0.13. ;). The answer was they want a "High performance FX", and a lower cost, and even a lower cost version of it. Over the coming years...everything over all price points will be fully programmable. (Not clear about NV31/34 actually being as programmable as high-end FX).

    * Q: When will NV30 "refresh" be out? Answer: What is that? :D We will "ship the living daylights out of NV30." We are working on something that is "twice as fast as that", as we always are. We don't intend our next generation product to slip "proportionally" to what NV30 did.

    * Ah well...I have to turn it off...gotta run...
     
  11. Beatles

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    Unfortunately the public can't call in. I'd slaughter them if we could.
     
  12. nutball

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    He also said "seperate design teams". NV35, or NV40?
     
  13. Ichneumon

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    Interesting... are saying FX tech in their cards covering $99-$399 range by beginning of 2nd quarter.

    Thats a lot of cards they need to bring out in a short time.

    heh. and the GF4ti is the "perfect product" at the "perfect price point" right now.

    It is eh?

    Nice sum up Joe.
    They were very vague about what was coming on that nv30 refresh question(as you'd expect). There was that bit about different design teams... NV35 or NV40 indeed.
     
  14. Dave H

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    Confrence call highlights:
    • Jen-Hsun has a raspy throat but enthusiastically insists to everyone he's feeling "just fine". Perhaps he's been smoking something hallucinogenic??
    • Jen-Hsun confirms Half-Life 2 for 2003 :!: :!: :D then again last time he confirmed GFfx for 2002...
    • In the opening remarks they really pushed Cg hard. No indications of actual uptake, however, and barely mentioned it in the Q&A part--which is generally where conference calls stop being meaningless fluff.
    • Nvidia expects to ship 1.5 million NV3x GPUs in Q1. How will they accomplish this with NV31/34 not launching until CeBit? Good question. Jen-Hsun keeps insisting they will ramp and sell NV30s; maybe most of these actually will be GFfx non-Ultras.
    • OTOH TNT2 "still sells a few million units a quarter".
    • NV31 and NV34 currently quickly ramping at TSMC. (Actual comment "we have 3 GPUs quickly ramping etc.") (edit: "ramping hard" was the actual quote; thanks Joe)
    • "We don't intend our next generation to slip proportionally to GFfx, because there are different design teams working on it." The original question was about NV35, but Jen-Hsun gave himself enough wiggle-room that this answer could refer to NV40.
    In general, a disappointing conference call (and yes, I've listened to good conference calls, they do exist). Then again, good results in the current quarter often lead to the sorts of wimpy questions and evasive answers we got here.
     
  15. TheMightyPuck

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    He makes an interesting point about add-in cards. If consumers upgrade from onboard dx6 to add-in dx9 that bodes well for gpu makers.
     
  16. Anonymous

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    Hmmm, I think that was a majority of chipset revenues perhaps were Nforce2, as opposed to Nforce1. They stated that Xbox was 20% of sales, GeForce4 family was >>50% of sales. They even shipped a few million units of TNT-2 this quarter.
     
  17. Anonymous

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    Why do these confrence calls with Nvidia CEO's result in them getting away with lying and misleading people every single time?

    1. There is no way they are mass going to ship 1.5million Nv30's this Quarter. Prerders are getting cancelled, and several sites are reporting limited production only.

    2. The nv31 does not have even half the functionality of the NV30, neither does the nv34.

    3. Their next product the Nv35 is not 2x faster than the Nv30. The Nv40 might be.. but they did not seem to be talking about that.

    When will the general public stop giving these guys license to lie, and lie and lie and lie while still inceasing their coffers???

    Further, notice their comment about the inventory of GF4mx??? Which are not fully dx8 complient? no wonder they are trying to kill 3dmark03. Instead of releasing a fully DX8 complient vdeo card they continually push non complient cards and then try to destroy anything that shows the emporer has no clothes. The same will be true for the Nv31.
     
  18. RussSchultz

    RussSchultz Professional Malcontent
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    That's interesting. Perhaps the NV31 and NV34 launch won't be paper, but a "suprise" with units shipping at the same time. Or maybe not.

    And, getinjiggywithit, please share more. You seem to know everything about their products. We'd welcome your considerable insight.
     
  19. Doomtrooper

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    I must say it shows how small the Internet in General affects graphic card sales, no mention of the cancellation of their high end part, danced around any idea of future releases.

    The one bright spot being the Nforce 2 I can actually give them credit for was really small potatoes due to market share.

    Not one question was asked on how well the Pre-orders were on their FX cards, and the CEO simply lying by making claims as 'the most powerfull GPU'.

    Oh well..Marketing vs. Performance
     
  20. Anonymous

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    Well, it's a bit early to say that. After all, their results are up to the end of January. And really all the controversy about the GeForceFX didn't start until around then. So we may yet see some fallout.

    And, from what I understand, management was very coy about their expectations for the upcoming quarter, perhaps indicating some uncertainty. From Reuters: '' "At this time we are unable to predict whether the growth of our core products will offset the decline in the Xbox," Burkett said on the call. ''

    They are to be congratulated for doing better than expected in challenging circumstances. But keeping in mind that the last Jon Peddie report seemed to indicate increasing graphics chips shipments while nVidia's quarterly report showed flat Q over Q revenues and significantly declines compared to the same quarter one year ago.... Well, they are not out of the woods yet.
     
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