NPD September 2007

I don't know whether it's affecting sales or not, I was simply taking issue with your claim that what Sony are doing is cost reduction. I hate these car analogies, but it's like taking out the stereo in a car and then saying it's cheaper. Well technically, yes it is, but it's not cost reduction in the accepted sense, it's by feature removal. This may not be a problem like the high price is a problem, but it can't help. Part of Sony's problem the last couple of years has been the lack of a coherent vision, and this is simply another example of that.

 

Plenty of people are going to notice that the 40gb unit lacks BC as its actually printed on the box, there's a segment of the market that does look at the feature set of things they invest in without being a regular poster at b3d. At $199 that might well go away, but at $3-499 a lot of people spend some thought time making those purchase decisions.

I think its safe to say that with the next generation of consoles there will be 0 entrants with a $600 start price.

 

That sounds like it's all removal. The 80GB unit lost EE (I don't think it's a loss since EE emulation on Cell is not something impossible) but gained 20GB more. The 40GB lost BC but gained 20GB, Wi-Fi and a new case compared to the 20GB. Though you wrote the 40GB model is running cooler and this somehow irritates you, it's just a coincidence (or planned?) that the transition to 65nm came some months after the PS3 launch. If you argue 20GB HDD increase does not make a feature, they could have a HDD-less model and then add an HDD as a "feature". Oh well.

And a coherent vision - does it make $700 console with 2 HDMI ports, $500 console without HDD, $300 console without Blu-ray or no price cut before the Japanese launch? Or something like Wii? If so I'm not too thrilled about them. A process of market adaptation is a coherent move toward profitability. Why PS3 can be priced at $399 at the end of 2007 is because there were people who bought millions of them for $600 at the end of 2006. Now the demand of such people is most filled, it's natural to make another model to cater to another demographic. PS3 is designed as a flexible platform with a coherent OS.

This generation for Sony is as much about building a software platform that can abstract and absorb hardware incoherency as about building a Cell-based system. Though it was said that it's a competition for the hub of digital home, it is really about a software platform that is always required to drive these hardwares and distribute contents. They can be cruel enough to cut PS2 BC out to complete this vision. As for as I can read from your comments, what you want for them is not a more coherent vision, but a different vision.

 

Yet seeing as this is an NPD thread, the question is whether that vision is a successful one that consumers are adopting. So far, not so much.

 

The only point i'm trying to make here is that ideally, a range should go from least expensive to most expensive and only add features. Basically the way things are now we have the following (which is pretty much what you've described)

40GB PS3
40GB HDD
No BC
Improved case and runs cooler

60GB PS3
60GB HDD
Full BC

80GB PS3
80GB HDD
Gimped BC

Essentially, higher numbers doesn't always mean better. With the 360, it's no HDD, 20GB HDD, 120GB HDD. There is no extra HDD space at the expense of something else. A coherent range needs to be structured in a logical way, currently imo, it is not.

I haven't made any comments aside from the one addressed above. If their vision sees them achieve profitability, then it's a success. My only problem with what they're doing at the moment is seemingly stripping off elements of the product to hit certain price points. In previous generations, price drops occurred when the manufacturer was either able to shoulder the addition losses, or had cost-reduced the design sufficiently to remain profitable at that lower price point. Nintendo and MS seem happy to stick to that principle, while Sony are cost-reducing to the point of removing features in order to drop their price. It just seems like at the rate they're going, what are they going to sacrifice next to hit $299? $199? If $399 proves to not be as profitable as they hope, will they sit on it or continue to remove elements to hit that next step?

 

OffT: But Steam is evil if you have liquor in the house. I woke up the other day with Titan Quest and Exp ready to go. The horror...the shame....

OnT: A 400 PS3 will start to sell in NA. I think the PS3 failure to this point is all down to price. 400 is the breakpoint.

 

The 360 did show a number of consumers will buy at $400. Of course what is unknown is how many who bought a $400 360 would have also paid $600. We know some of the potential $400 buyers already bought a PS3 at the $500-$600 range.

In NA, MS added 100K consumers with a $50 price drop and a Madden/Bioshock release. In NA, Sony went from 99k a month to 159K (+60) with their last pricing/SKU adjustments.

The combination of holiday sales and a $100 price drop will be nice, but it doesn't look like $400 is a major breakpoint, at least not like historically has been seen in the $200 range.

How PS3 sales rebound in November and compare will be very interesting. October will probably be a slow month for Sony, between the Halo fever at the end of Sept/early October and the price drop announcement (which would stall some sales).

Can Sony break 500K units in November? Based on last years numbers I would say that would be a good target and give us a general feel for where they are headed. If they can hit 500K units (what MS did last November and what Wii and the 360 did this September) then it will definately show some signs of life.

 

Mmmm, I think its more correct to say that it'll sell better than it has up to this point but will not break the trend of doing significantly worse than X360. As far as the NA market is concerned its pretty much game over for Sony. Oh it'll still sell somewhat, but the best they can hope for now is a distant 3rd place, much what like Xbox had last time around.

 

I think Sony will need to bundle it with a good game. 360 was bundled with Gears of War if I remember correctly back then. Or am I mistaken?

Anyways MS will sure have the 360 bundled with games this November for sure. Sony needs to do something similar with the 40GB PS3. AFAIK, it's not bundled with any game which reduces the value next to a 360.

In fact thats why I got a 60GB PS3. If I was going to get the 40GB PS3 with resistance, Motorstorm and a controller, it might have cost me around as much or more than the 60GB offer with two games and one extra controller included in the package

 

I don't think the 360 has ever been bundled with Gears. I think the first official bundles are only now appearing.

 

Actually I saw Gears of War bundles. I am not sure when they started though (did they appear in November or later?).

Perhaps they were in Europe only.

They even had the core with COD2 and the premium bundled with COD3.

edit: Oh yeah I remembered another bundle. It came with Pro Evo and an extra controller

PS3 was still full priced with no games and no extra controller all that time. Only after this years E3 the PS3 appeared with two games and one extra controller.

 

Here are some pics:



And a need for speed most wanted bundle
http://gamer.micromania.com.cy/inde...talog_mod_action=view&prod_id=1580&page_id=16

 

I think it will close the gap at 400 unless Microsoft does something. I agree that Microsoft will sell more units november/december. Sony's best case is probably 3/4 Microsoft and worst is 1/2.

 

If the 80GB is any similar to the European 60GB the backwards compatibility works almost 100% fine after the firmware update

 

I never saw one of those in the states. Anyhow, there have always been store-bundles and special promotions with individual retailers, but the first "official" bundles (as I put it) are just coming into their own now with the Forza/Marvel and Forza/VP bundles.

 

There's been a Gears bundle in the EU, just as we have a Halo3 bundle now. MS is indeed a bit more agressive in this market, knowing that it's a Sony stronghold.

 

Well the ones I posted are Official not arranged by individual retailers. It seems that in Europe we were getting those before you.

Probably MS knew that Sony had a better chance in Europe so they attacked it with these bundles.

 

Do you know when the Gears of War bundles appeared for the first time? I am curious to know

 

I disagree. Market adaptation would mean that the market has changed in the past year and it has required Sony to change their product accordingly. But this is not the case - the market is still the same as it's been a year ago.

The truth is that Sony's original strategy was completely wrong. They have clearly expressed their expectation that the console would sell millions even without any software. They thought that the market prefers a full-featured entertainment device, complete with all the card reader and nextgen media stuff, and that the customers will be ready to work extra hours in order to buy it.

But it turned out that the customers would rather buy cheap consoles that have good games and that's all they want. The 40GB model is the result of finally accepting this - and it's the only model they should've ever made (though I would've thought about cutting WiFi out as well).

The PS3 isn't any more flexible then the other consoles as a platform, I don't know what makes you think that. The ability to design half a dozen SKUs doesn't mean flexibility.

I'm sorry but I can't understand this. What hardware incoherency is there to abstract and absord? Different sized hard drives and presence/lack of memory card readers? Please try to explain this a bit better...

 

Its not a before/after thing, its regional. I doubt you'll ever see those bundles in NA at least not in the near future. They are selling systems in NA without being in the box.