NPD October 2010

[eastmen]

I take issue with the math on this one, I do not disagree that one person could purchase four controllers but I have a problem with the 1M being the number of people capable of playing. Pedantic, yes, but even if you assume dual-weilding for each user that would be a low of 2M capable of playing. I'm certainly not positing that a 1M sold-through equals 1M individual homes but it is possible though highly improbable.

I don't take issue with the rest of your post.

I mean 1m for buying games.

Your right 2 people can play on a ps3 with 4 controllers. But only 1 game needs to be bought.


User bases are important for developers esp early on in a hardwares life. Its easy to figure out how many kinect users and wii users are out there purchasing software. The picture isn't as clear cut with move.


btw i'm not saying i know anything about the move's install base. I'm just saying there are multiple ways to come across owning a move.

Hell I bought a move controller simply cause I have an eye toy already. My buddy already has 4 move remotes however. So i can see the spectrum and it makes for a much more confusing picture compared to the others.

 

[patsu]

User bases are important for developers esp early on in a hardwares life. Its easy to figure out how many kinect users and wii users are out there purchasing software. The picture isn't as clear cut with move.

That's why Move is similar to Wii. Developers can make games for both at the same time, with slightly different variation.

I mean 1m for buying games.

If there are 4m players and 1m PS3s, the other 3m players may have desire to buy games too (e.g., casual PSN and Blu-ray games). I buy games for my kid and myself today even though he "piggybacks" on my account.

 

[thatdude90210]

It'll be interesting to see if any Kinect software titles chart in next month's NPD. I don't recall how Move software did at launch but maybe then we can look it up and compare.

 

[eastmen]

That's why Move is similar to Wii. Developers can make games for both at the same time, with slightly different variation.

unless move's user base is to small for the ports cost to be worth while

If there are 4m players and 1m PS3s, the other 3m players may have desire to buy games too (e.g., casual PSN and Blu-ray games). I buy games for my kid and myself today even though he "piggybacks" on my account.

Except I am not talking about ps3 owners. I am talking about move owners. If there are 4m controllers but they are in the hands of only 1m users then the most a move title can sell is 1m copies unless its able to expand the install base. So what i'm talking about is where the move unit numbers fall in relationship to the wii and kinect. We know for every kinect sold that is a kinect user ready and able to buy kinect software. We know for each wii console sold that is a wii user ready and able to buy kinect software. However what does the move hardware represent ? Is it just the sum total of wants sold , bundled , out of bundled or what. What does it mean and how do developers treat it. Sony can announce tommorow that they sold 10m move units , but what does it mean for install base and more frankly what does it mean for future support of the move. Its not as clear cut as with the other two motion platforms

 

[patsu]

unless move's user base is to small for the ports cost to be worth while

Possible. It depends on how Sony market Move. The Wii developers have already started to port some over (They even made it HD and 3D compatible):
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1493911&postcount=1029

Except I am not talking about ps3 owners. I am talking about move owners. If there are 4m controllers but they are in the hands of only 1m users then the most a move title can sell is 1m copies unless its able to expand the install base. So what i'm talking about is where the move unit numbers fall in relationship to the wii and kinect. We know for every kinect sold that is a kinect user ready and able to buy kinect software. We know for each wii console sold that is a wii user ready and able to buy kinect software. However what does the move hardware represent ? Is it just the sum total of wants sold , bundled , out of bundled or what. What does it mean and how do developers treat it. Sony can announce tommorow that they sold 10m move units , but what does it mean for install base and more frankly what does it mean for future support of the move. Its not as clear cut as with the other two motion platforms

Not every. Some Kinect sold may be hacked for use on PC or Mac OSX. Some people may buy more than one Kinect too.

You can buy Wii controllers bundled or standalone. Same for Move or DS3 controllers. People buy the controllers because they want to try it out, or have specific games in mind. If they like the experience, they may buy more games.

Sony has first parties. If they want, they can continue to support Move. Wii developers may port successful games over. And then other third party will do it case by case (e.g., Kinect people may port some over). We'll know the numbers as time progresses. Sony will monitor their performance too.

 

[goonergaz]

I am talking about move owners. If there are 4m controllers but they are in the hands of only 1m users

It's 100% unlikely that if 4m were sold there's only 1m users...you're basically saying everyone who bought into the controller has 4 in the house!! As I said eariler the very minimum will be 1.3m but very likely more...however without proper research it's impossible to tell.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not every. Some Kinect sold may be hacked for use on PC or Mac OSX. Some people may buy more than one Kinect too.

Technically, but looking at the big picture, those figures are too small to be relevant, just as Wii and PSEye purchasing for amateur robotic stuff hasn't seen millions of part-time roboteers.

Eastmen's point is a valid one. We know ~every Kinect sold is a household with Kinect, a potential 4ish consumers on average (2+2 adults and children). We know every Wii sold is a household with Wii, with the same 4ish possible consumers, irrespective of how many standalone Wiimotes have been sold. Regards Move, we don't know how many Move enabled households exist. 4 million sold will range from one Move per PS3 for 4 million households, to four per household for 1 million households. The relative consumer base is the same for all these platforms - the no. household occupants * the install base. For PS3 though we (more importantly publishers and developers) don't know what the second term in that equation is. My guess is one-point-something Move's per PS3, with many getting one and some getting two and fewer getting four. Isn't there a distinct lack of four player titles at the moment? The actual opportunity to use 4 Moves is so limited as to make buying four redundant at this point. For a developer to target Move specifically, they'll need to take their own guesses, but I imagine they'd be lacking approximately Move's sold as their indicator. Of course with simple Wii ports, the cost to support PS3 would likely become negligable so Move can be targeted anyway.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's 100% unlikely that if 4m were sold there's only 1m users...you're basically saying everyone who bought into the controller has 4 in the house!!

There's a significant IF there. Eastmen is using that as a an end-case example, illustrating the range of possibilities. He said earlier:

btw i'm not saying i know anything about the move's install base. I'm just saying there are multiple ways to come across owning a move.

...to show he's only talking hypothetically, the issues faced with trying to ascertain Move enabled households.

 

[NavNucST3]

There's a significant IF there. Eastmen is using that as a an end-case example, illustrating the range of possibilities. He said earlier:
...to show he's only talking hypothetically, the issues faced with trying to ascertain Move enabled households.

Gents, we are way too hung-up on my rebuttal. eastmen stated his hypothetical, I stipulated I was being pedantic. As an edge case, we do own two Kinects in our household with no duplicate games, save the pack-in, though I believe we are getting Kinect Sports so we can play three player.

 

[patsu]

Eastmen's point is a valid one. We know ~every Kinect sold is a household with Kinect, a potential 4ish consumers on average (2+2 adults and children). We know every Wii sold is a household with Wii, with the same 4ish possible consumers, irrespective of how many standalone Wiimotes have been sold. Regards Move, we don't know how many Move enabled households exist. 4 million sold will range from one Move per PS3 for 4 million households, to four per household for 1 million households. The relative consumer base is the same for all these platforms - the no. household occupants * the install base. For PS3 though we (more importantly publishers and developers) don't know what the second term in that equation is. My guess is one-point-something Move's per PS3, with many getting one and some getting two and fewer getting four. Isn't there a distinct lack of four player titles at the moment? The actual opportunity to use 4 Moves is so limited as to make buying four redundant at this point. For a developer to target Move specifically, they'll need to take their own guesses, but I imagine they'd be lacking approximately Move's sold as their indicator. Of course with simple Wii ports, the cost to support PS3 would likely become negligable so Move can be targeted anyway.

Sony should know from the system data they gather from connected PS3 systems (70% are connected according to their stats ?). They should have data to share with developers.

If someone want to gather the data themselves, number of PSEye sold since Move launched is also a proxy indicator for new Move customers who have not bought PSEye yet. Although that number may be skewed after GT5 launched. There won't be 4 Move controllers per household since there is no 4P Move games yet. So the ratio should be 1.x Move controllers per Move-enabled PS3.

For multiple PS3/360 units, the dynamics may be a little different. Move folks simply bring the controllers over to another room. Kinect folks... I guess depends.

 

[Arwin]

There are a few that support four, and since Sports Champions is one of them, that's not as trivial as it may seem. That's not to say I expect that many people to have bought four of them already, but there are a few (on GAF ).

- Sports Champions (every game that can be played with two in single player, e.g. Beach Volley, Gladiator and Archery, can be played with four in multiplayer. Apart from that, all games support having your own Move controller which I think saves you some recalibration at times)
- Flight Control (four player co-op with four Moves, or any other controller for that matter including navcon, ds3, sixaxis, etc.)
- The Fight (two player split screen requires it, basically)

There may be others, but these I'm sure of (I have all of them).

 

[patsu]

Wow, so soon ? I didn't know they did it already ! ^_^
I'd be very surprised if many bought 4 Move controllers.

 

[Rangers]

Some more new data/charts from Gamasutra's NPD article

October hardware average prices: PS3 = $333, Xbox 360 = $256, Wii = $194.

IIRC in the past PS3 average prices was very close to 300, even with a 350 model, so this shows the impact of Move bundle, so probably not a normal figure. X360 should get a ASP boost in Nov from kinect bundles.

Michael Pachter in fact commented that about 1/3 of PS3 systems were Move bundles, which are $400. (Side note: that's around 80K added to the Move installed base.)

I think my own estimate, based on his comment and the ASP, was 60% $300 models, 30% $400 models, and 10% $350 models. That gets you down to $335.

JVM's (article author) "estimate" of recent PS2 sales

Jan = 42K
Feb = 102K
Mar = 118K
Apr = 44K
May = 33K
Jun = 61K
Jul = 25K
Aug = 76K
Sep = 61K
Oct = 33K

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's a good chart. Very clear and shows exactly what's happening at a glance. The same percentage increase for Nov and Dec should push 360 up to 6 million or beyond.

 

[Rangers]

Yep and, good news for PS3, very strong in software. Here's the hardware LTD's

DS: 43,284,258
PSP: 17,781,860
360: 22,165,075
PS3: 13,722,196
Wii: 30,524,281

PS3 at 13.7m has more software sales so far than Wii at 30.5m, though I suspect holiday which is stronger for Wii may push the Wii back ahead a bit, doesn't change the overall point.

From looking at Amazon top 20, it does seem the Wii is getting a bit of life back for the holidays, and the new bundles and Super Mario All Stars helped. I dont think it will be the blowout Nintendo wanted, but wii is strongest around Christmas.

 

[eastmen]

That's a good chart. Very clear and shows exactly what's happening at a glance. The same percentage increase for Nov and Dec should push 360 up to 6 million or beyond.

cod and kinect could push it even further than 6m . This may become MS's best year. I think it shows that MS isn't going anywhere. They can be sucessful in this market just fine.

Hopefully next console round they don't get any rrod situations

 

[Toaddio]

cod and kinect could push it even further than 6m . This may become MS's best year. I think it shows that MS isn't going anywhere. They can be sucessful in this market just fine.

Go team go!

 

[eastmen]

Go team go!

Ha. I'm just happy that MS provided a wake up call ot the industry and got companys out of a rut they seemed happy ot keep replaying. I believe the state of online gaming would be far worse is MS didn't push it with the xbox. In fact I'm not so sure we would even see online with the ps3

 

[patsu]

Some more new data/charts from Gamasutra's NPD article

Only $400 million software difference in US for 2010 ? What about EU and Japan ?

 

[AlphaWolf]

What about EU and Japan ?

Wrong thread.