djskribbles
Legend
Is that combined for Vanquish? If so... ouch. A relatively short SP campaign with no MP + no marketing + full priced game = guaranteed failure. I think it deserved more, but I'm not all surprised.
NPD October 2010
- Thread starter zed
- Start date
Man I should use VgChartz for now on just out of spite. My belief is the only reason NPD is stepping back is because for manufacturers the truth sometimes makes for terrible PR.
I never really trusted VgChartz number given how their numbers have been out of line with NPD numbers on numerous occasions. I can tell you all it would take is for MS, Sony or Nintendo to mention VgChartz in the PR and they would gain the same trust as NPD. NPD witholding of info is only going to give VgC a chance at prominence because for the internet console wars (its like politics) all you need is a bit of truthiness.
I never really trusted VgChartz number given how their numbers have been out of line with NPD numbers on numerous occasions. I can tell you all it would take is for MS, Sony or Nintendo to mention VgChartz in the PR and they would gain the same trust as NPD. NPD witholding of info is only going to give VgC a chance at prominence because for the internet console wars (its like politics) all you need is a bit of truthiness.
If they don't want to get asked questions based on, or see lots of forum posts about, VG Chartz, then perhaps they should release the numbers themselves? You don't get to have it both ways.
1. Release #'s - take your lumps and trumpet your triumphs
2. Don't Release #'s - everyone guess' based on anecdotal evidence and sites like VG Chartz.
If you do choose option 1 and you fail to mention something, or you couch your terms to confuse the issue, expect the normal results.
1. Release #'s - take your lumps and trumpet your triumphs
2. Don't Release #'s - everyone guess' based on anecdotal evidence and sites like VG Chartz.
If you do choose option 1 and you fail to mention something, or you couch your terms to confuse the issue, expect the normal results.
ShadowRunner
Veteran
I would think they would likely just look at how well software is selling for move. Actual userbase numbers shouldnt be needed, it doesnt tell them how many people are actively using and purchasing games for the device, which is what they want to know. Look at Wii or PSP, userbase figures are practically irrelevant, they will be looking at software sales almost exclusively in both cases im sure.
How well a fitness game sells doesn't really tell you much if you want to move a shooter etc and there's really not enough data on move or kinect games to make any educated decisions yet. You want to know install base and demographics.
It depends on whether this kind of typical variance is something you can live with:
30K too high 360
30K too high PS3
50K too high Wii
PSP on the dot
15K too high DS
And this link explains somewhat how they 'invent' their numbers or the system behind the creation of their numbers depending on what perspective you're using.
I think 'invent' is the wrong term. Their 4 different methods they used for ESTIMATING the final Kinect figure seemed adequate for the task. It's not a replacement for exact ship numbers mind you, but it can get them in the ballpark. And you're seriously complaining about a difference of 50K? Considering they are completely free I don't think that's too bad. But if I was a VP or Product Manager & had the money I definitely would be spending it on more extensive market analysis.
Tommy McClain
Tommy McClain
25% variation borders on a poor guess.
thatdude90210
Regular
Or a pretty decent dartboard.
Yes. I said :
Developers aren't being serviced by this figure, but then the figure was a corporate figure designed to make it look like good business.
Now just need the OP, or someone, to update the first post.
Unfortunately while that completes the hardware picture, the software picture is still a mess. With the only thing we know being that the top four software titles by platform went to X360. And even then we only know 2 of them (Fallout X360 first with Reach second). Would be nice to see how the rest falls out.
Regards,
SB
I'd probably prefer the old top ten too, but OTOH now we seem to actually get more tidbits on software outside the top ten.
So many bombs this month:
I mean, these are just devastating numbers in some cases. I forsee more layoffs...
I take issue with the math on this one, I do not disagree that one person could purchase four controllers but I have a problem with the 1M being the number of people capable of playing. Pedantic, yes, but even if you assume dual-weilding for each user that would be a low of 2M capable of playing. I'm certainly not positing that a 1M sold-through equals 1M individual homes but it is possible though highly improbable.
I don't take issue with the rest of your post.
I think its more to the point that there's only one console and thus one game purchase involved. The number developers would want to know is "move enabled boxes", because that's your target market.
Im not making excuses yes I was off there, but in truth I didnt actually run the figures through the algorithm I just guessed somewhat (I do have the amazon numbers but I just quickly looked at them(*)). I'll run them through later when I get the time (a bit busy the last couple of weeks) but of course coming up with numbers after the event is not acceptable
(*)now I think of it,11->14 oct is a bit of an aberation for the wii numbers since they discounted the price (due to the upcoming bundles, me I thought it was cause there was going to be a pricecut of the wii). So in that sense its also a good indication of when something is about to occur
I think he was just saying that 4m sales = 1m users is as rediculous as 4m sales = 4m users...which is true.
I would totally guess that it's probably fairer to say the total number of users is somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 the total sales...so if 4m are sold I'd guess 1.3 to 2m potential customers for each game...without a survey I don't know how you might get a better figure? Even a poll here would be off the actual figure.
'Users' is probably the wrong word to use. I'd suggest something like household would be better. Selling multiple devices to a single household is good for Sony, but not so good for game publishers and developers.
Yes, it's like saying most Kinects are sold to people without 360.
Looking from the positive side, it may mean both Move and Kinect are reaching out to new audiences, especially Kinect. More people in a family play PS3/360 *could* mean they buy more software, and perhaps more different software for different people.
yeah, wrong word - but it's fairly obvious what I mean - potential "Move game buying" customers
Tell me about it, I cannot get the wife or kids off the 360 w/ Kinect!
Yap, my son has a 30 minute limit on PS3 everyday so that daddy and mommy can use it.
We have 2 Move controllers. Was going to buy a third one for my office PS3. Have postponed that idea because Sony doesn't supply enough standalone Move controllers to my area. They are all Sports Champions bundles now. Will have to wait a bit.
We have 2 Move controllers. Was going to buy a third one for my office PS3. Have postponed that idea because Sony doesn't supply enough standalone Move controllers to my area. They are all Sports Champions bundles now. Will have to wait a bit.
